Keeler Johnson’s picks and plays of Oct. 10, 2023

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Tuesday, Oct. 10 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Presque Isle Downs, along with a single for the $3,366 Pick 6 carryover at Finger Lakes.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Trifecta Tuesday: Receive a 15% bonus on trifecta winnings excluding stake amount; up to $25 per day.
• Summerside 10x Points: Opt in and receive 10x reward points on all Summerside wagers (excluding show bets) on Tuesdays from Sept. 12 through Oct. 24.

Picks and Plays

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 4:34 p.m. ET)

#4 Sweet Sassy Pants (5-2) has run twice against non-state-restricted maiden special weight competition at Horseshoe Indianapolis. In her debut dashing 5 1/2 furlongs, she set the pace before staying on to finish second with a 66 Brisnet Speed rating. In her second start over six furlongs, she pressed the pace before retreating to finish last.

On Tuesday, Sweet Sassy Pants is tackling a maiden special weight restricted to horses bred in Indiana. The par winning Brisnet Speed rating is 66, so the class drop can help this speedy filly graduate for the hot jockey/trainer duo of Rodney Prescott and Randy Matthews, who have gone 4-for-14 (29%) teaming up together over the last two months.

Let’s bet Sweet Sassy Pants to win and single her to start a double wager:

Selections

• #4 Sweet Sassy Pants (5-2)
• #7 Jane’s a Diva (3-1)
• #3 Taprize Me (5-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #4 Sweet Sassy Pants
• $10 Double: 4 with 5
  Total: $30

Presque Isle Downs: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 4:48 p.m. ET)

#5 Mel’s Angel (7-2) debuted in a 5 1/2-furlong turf maiden special weight for New York-breds at Saratoga and raced in midfield throughout on her way to sixth place. Trainer Melanie Giddings has gone 2-for-2 at Presque Isle Downs this meet, so Mel’s Angel figures to be dangerous while trying Tapeta.

#2 Dorth’s Sol Dancer (4-1), runner-up over this course, distance, and class level last time out, can complete the exacta.

Selections

• #5 Mel’s Angel (7-2)
• #2 Dorth’s Sol Dancer (4-1)
• #8 Vicountess (10-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #5 Mel’s Angel
• $10 Exacta: 5 with 2
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 5:05 p.m. ET)

#5 Yammy Yammy Bella (2-1) ran strongly in a one-mile maiden special weight at Kentucky Downs last month, leading for much of the journey before weakening to finish second by 2 1/2 lengths. The daughter of Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) winner Karakontie figures to find the competition a bit easier at Horseshoe Indianapolis, setting the stage for victory.

We’ll bet Yammy Yammy Bella to win and single her to conclude our double wager.

Selections

• #5 Yammy Yammy Bella (2-1)
• #1 Livi Me Dreaming (7-2)
• #4 Taamuq (8-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #5 Yammy Yammy Bella

Carryover Watch

Finger Lakes: Race 3: $3,366 Pick 6 carryover (2:13 p.m. ET)

Looking for a non-jackpot carryover to play this Tuesday? Finger Lakes is ready to oblige. The New York racetrack has tossed up a $3,366 non-jackpot carryover in the $1 Pick 6.

If you’re thinking that a midweek Pick 6 at a small track shouldn’t be too difficult to decipher, think again. The six races drew a total of 50 horses (averaging just over 8.3 per race), which works out to 310,464 possible outcomes.

The sequence only gets more challenging when you dig into the past performances. The races look wide-open on paper, with many viable win contenders. Determining which horses to use (or exclude) isn’t easy, and finding a viable single is downright difficult.

That said, we’ll give it a shot. Race 8, the final leg of the Pick 6, offers a single possibility in the form of #5 Persistent Danger (3-1).

Race 8 is a $5,000 claimer for horses who have never won two races, and the morning line favorite is #9 Color Commish (9-5), who is dropping in class after running second in a couple of allowances and fourth in an $11,000 claimer. But Color Commish has been running one mile and 70 yards, and Race 8 is taking place over six furlongs, so the cutback in distance is at least a small question mark.

That’s why Persistent Danger is so appealing. His last three starts have come in allowance sprints at Finger Lakes, and he cracked the trifecta in two of them, earning Brisnet Speed ratings of 75 and 80. Those are similar to the numbers of 81 and 77 posted by Color Commish in his two allowance runs.

Tuesday’s six-furlong distance should lend an advantage to Persistent Danger, and it helps that the four-year-old gelding is dropping down the class ladder. He showed enough ability to run third in a $25,000 claimer at Aqueduct last winter, so transitioning from allowance company to $5,000 claiming competition can send Persistent Danger to the winner’s circle as a nice-priced single.

Good luck!