Keeler Johnson’s picks and plays of Oct. 11, 2023

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, Oct. 11 at Presque Isle Downs and Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with tickets for the $6,977 Super High 5 carryover at Keeneland.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Hoosier Park $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any eligible race at Hoosier Park.
• Horseshoe Indianapolis $3,000 Late Pick 5 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 5 at Horseshoe Indianapolis every Wednesday in October to win your share of a $3,000 bonus jackpot.
• Keeneland Win Bonus: Hit multiple win bets in a single day at Keeneland to receive a bonus payoff of up to $25 per day.

Picks and Plays

Presque Isle Downs: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on Tapeta, 3:54 p.m. ET)

#6 Irish Stone (6-1) has been cranking out fast workouts at Presque Isle Downs, including a bullet half-mile from the starting gate in :46 3/5. Hot trainer John Bourke (a 30% winner at Presque Isle this meet) has compiled a decent 2-for-12 (17%) record debuting juveniles at Presque Isle since 2019, so Irish Stone is eligible to outrun his 6-1 morning line odds.

A win bet is in order, along with an exacta using #5 Everdoit (6-1) and #4 Perfect Prankster (7-2) for second place.

Selections

• #6 Irish Stone (6-1)
• #5 Everdoit (6-1)
• #4 Perfect Prankster (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 Irish Stone
• $5 Exacta: 6 with 4,5 ($10)
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 8: ITOBA Stallion Season Fillies H. (one mile and 70 yards, 6:07 p.m. ET)

#3 Ekati Flatter (1-1) is the morning line favorite after winning a six-furlong $40,000 allowance optional claimer at Horseshoe Indianapolis, but she’s been beaten by double-digit margins in both of her route races, and two starts back she lost a 5 1/2-furlong allowance to #7 Imagine the Moon (5-2).

Imagine the Moon has won four of her last five starts, including a stakes. She’s an unproven commodity running farther than six furlongs, but her pedigree offers some potential for stretching out in distance.

Let’s try betting Imagine the Moon to win and singling her to start a double wager.

Selections

• #7 Imagine the Moon (5-2)
• #5 Itzforever (15-1)
• #2 Wildcatjustice (12-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #7 Imagine the Moon
• $10 Double: 7 with 2

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 9: ITOBA Stallion Season H. (one mile and 70 yards, 6:38 p.m. ET)

#2 Doubledogjustice (5-2) owns the highest Brisnet Speed rating in this field, having posted a 79 when employing pace-tracking tactics to win an allowance over this track and distance last time out. He’s actually posted four straight Brisnet Speed ratings in the 71-79 range and has hit the board in a couple of stakes, so Doubledogjustice consistently runs well enough to conquer Wednesday’s field.

A win bet is in order, and we’ll single Doubledogjustice to conclude our double wager. 

Selections

• #2 Doubledogjustice (5-2)
• #5 Daykra (4-1)
• #4 Juancho (9-2)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #2 Doubledogjustice

Carryover Watch

Keeneland: Race 8: $6,977 Super High 5 carryover (4:44 p.m. ET)

Racing at Keeneland resumes on Wednesday with a $6,977 carryover up for grabs in the $1 Super High 5. The non-jackpot wager is available to play in Race 8, a maiden special weight for two-year-old fillies racing one mile on turf.

An overflow field of 15, including three also-eligibles, has been entered. But that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s a difficult race to handicap. To the contrary, #6 Luz Divina (7-2) is a formidable contender worth keying on top in the Super High 5.

Luz Divina has run twice so far. In her debut sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs at Saratoga, she unleashed a strong outside rally to finish third, gaining 2 3/4 lengths through the final furlong alone to come home 1 3/4 lengths behind the winner.

Luz Divina ran even better when stretching out over 1 1/16 miles for her second start, a maiden special weight at Churchill Downs. Showing improved tactical speed, she pressed a modest pace from second place before staying on to finish second behind Buchu, who came right back to win the Jessamine (G2) at Keeneland.

Assuming Luz Divina doesn’t run into a Buchu-caliber competitor on Wednesday, she can make her third start a winning one.

Who are the other logical contenders? #7 Cairo Street (6-1) and #8 Auraculous (9-2) are two we want to use. Cairo Street has run twice against maiden special weight company on turf, finishing sixth in a 1 1/16-mile contest at Ellis Park won by next-out Juvenile Fillies S. winner Austere before improving to run third over one mile at Kentucky Downs.

As for Auraculous, she finished midfield in her debut sprinting on dirt at Ellis Park, then tackled a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight over the Kentucky Downs turf course and rallied strongly to finish second. As a daughter of Uncle Mo out of a Bernardini mare, Auraculous is bred top and bottom to shine running long, so stretching out in distance at Keeneland can trigger another competitive showing.

We also have to respect first-time starters #2 Mishka (8-1) and #5 Joyful Image (12-1). Mishka is a well-bred daughter of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, and she’s conditioned by high-percentage trainer Brad Cox, who wins at a respectable 19% rate with horses debuting on turf. Mishka has put together a solid work tab in preparation for her debut and is slated to be ridden by jockey Florent Geroux, a 27% winner teaming up with Cox over the last two months.

Meanwhile, Joyful Image is a daughter of Kitten’s Joy, a perennial leader among North American turf sires. The gray filly is debuting for jockey Tyler Gaffalione and trainer Brendan Walsh, who have teamed up to win at a 21% rate over the last two months.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

• $1 Super High 5: 6 with 8 with 2,5,7 with 2,5,7 with 1,2,5,7,10,11 ($24)
• $1 Super High 5: 6 with 1,2,5,7,10,11 with 8 with 2,5,7 with 2,5,7 ($24)
  Total: $48

Good luck!