Keeler Johnson’s picks and plays of Oct. 12, 2023

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Thursday, Oct. 12 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Keeneland, including thoughts on a pair of five-figure carryovers at Keeneland.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Hoosier Park $1,000 Pick 4 Hit It & Split It: Hit the late Pick 4 on Thursdays at Hoosier Park to win your share of a $1,000 weekly jackpot.
• Keeneland Win Bonus: Hit multiple win bets in a single day at Keeneland to receive a bonus payoff of up to $25 per day.

Picks and Plays

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 2: $12,500 Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs, 2:41 p.m. ET)

#3 Patton’s War (3-5) is the heavy favorite while dropping in class out of two dirt allowances at Horseshoe Indianapolis, but #2 Swaggish (6-1) owns similar Brisnet Speed ratings and has upset potential.

Two starts back, Swaggish wired a $10,000 maiden claimer at Ellis Park by 11 lengths. He followed up with a second-place finish in a $16,000 claimer at Ellis. Tackling the $12,500 level while shipping from Kentucky to Indiana can help Swaggish vie for victory in his first start since being claimed by trainer Brittany Van Berg, who strikes at a lofty 27% rate with new claiming acquisitions.

A win bet with a cold exacta is the way we’ll play.

Selections

• #2 Swaggish (6-1)
• #3 Patton’s War (3-5)
• #6 Tropic Storm (8-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #2 Swaggish
• $10 Exacta: 2 with 3
  Total: $30

Keeneland: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 4:12 p.m. ET)

#4 Edgartown (12-1) ran strongly in his debut sprinting seven furlongs at Kentucky Downs, pressing the pace before staying on to finish second behind Can Group, who returned to win the Bourbon (G2) at Keeneland.

Edgartown was the only speed horse to hang around for a superfecta finish in that Kentucky Downs contest, so we’ll view his effort in a positive light. He’s eligible to move forward while stretching out in distance under jockey Tyler Gaffalione, who has gone 6-for-20 (30%) teaming up with trainer Joe Sharp over the last two months.

Let’s bet Edgartown to win and key him over #3 Frontline Warrior (5-1) and #12 Tireless (3-1) in the exacta:

Selections

• #4 Edgartown (12-1)
• #3 Frontline Warrior (5-1)
• #12 Tireless (3-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #4 Edgartown
• $5 Exacta: 4 with 3,12 ($10)
  Total: $30

Keeneland: Race 8: $125,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (six furlongs, 4:44 p.m. ET)

#4 Aunt Becca (6-1) ran into some trouble when finishing last of five in the Jersey Girl S. at Belmont Park last time out. Two starts back, she showed pacesetting speed on her way to trouncing a six-furlong allowance at Keeneland by 6 1/4 lengths, in the process earning a flashy 99 Brisnet Speed rating that tops Thursday’s field.

Aunt Becca has been freshened since June and enters off fast workouts at Keeneland, so returning to this oval can trigger a rebound. She’s worth betting to win and keying over logical favorite #7 Little Prankster (1-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #4 Aunt Becca (6-1)
• #7 Little Prankster (1-1)
• #1 Miss Arlington (8-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #4 Aunt Becca
• $10 Exacta: 4 with 7
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Keeneland: Race 5: $27,770 Pick 6 carryover (3:08 p.m. ET)
Keeneland: Race 10: $16,011 Super High 5 carryover (5:48 p.m. ET)

Fans of non-jackpot carryovers have a pair of five-figure prize pools to chase at Keeneland on Thursday.

The $1 Pick 6 has tossed up a $27,770 carryover, while the pot for the $1 Super High 5 stands at $16,011.

We’ve already shared thoughts on two legs of the Pick 6. In Race 7, #4 Edgartown (12-1) is a must-use live longshot, though #3 Frontline Warrior (5-1) and #12 Tireless (3-1) are worth including as backup. Bettors with particularly large budgets might want to throw in #8 Real Men Violin (4-1) and #9 Omex (10-1) for good measure, because this is a highly competitive race on paper.

In Race 8, our preference is for #4 Aunt Becca (6-1), though Pick 6 bettors might want to use gate-to-wire Saratoga allowance winner #7 Little Prankster (1-1) in equal strength.

But the most important race for carryover chasers to decipher is Race 10. It’s the final leg of the Pick 6 and the race in which Super High 5 betting is available, so if you fail to find the winner, you won’t hit either wager.

Unfortunately, Race 10 is very difficult to decipher. It’s a $50,000 maiden claimer for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs on dirt, and there are plenty of viable contenders among the 10 entries.

#9 St. Benedicts Prep (8-5) is the morning line favorite while dropping in class and distance for hot trainer Chad Brown, who has gone 2-for-4 (50%) at Keeneland this meet. But her lone dirt start this year was unremarkable, so she would have to run back to her July 2022 debut at Saratoga (when she ran second in a maiden special weight) to challenge for victory. It’s not out of the question, but St. Benedicts Prep doesn’t appear unbeatable.

Second choice #10 Oh My Gawd (7-2) is an interesting alternative; the unraced filly enters off fast workouts at Churchill Downs. But trainer Eddie Kenneally has gone just 1-for-16 (6%) debuting horses aged three and older at Keeneland since 2018.

Since the favorites seem vulnerable, perhaps we can catch a longshot like #5 Nursekringledances (12-1) or #6 Birdie Rose (15-1) on top. Nursekringledances ran off the board in a couple of turf starts during the summer at Saratoga, but three starts back she rallied to finish second in a $100,000 maiden claimer sprinting seven furlongs at Ellis Park.

As for Birdie Rose, she was beaten only a nose in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs. The final time wasn’t especially fast, but dropping down the class ladder should help Birdie Rose vie for victory again.

So that’s our recommendation—cover for the unexpected in Thursday’s final race at Keeneland. If you spread deep in the Pick 6, and use Nursekringledances and Birdie Rose up and down your Super High 5 tickets, you’ll give yourself an option to catch big payoffs in both carryover wagers.

Good luck!