Keeler Johnson’s picks and plays of Oct. 13, 2023

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, Oct. 13 at Aqueduct, Delaware Park, and Keeneland, including tickets for the $59,352 Super High 5 carryover at Keeneland.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Keeneland Win Bonus: Hit multiple win bets in a single day at Keeneland to receive a bonus payoff of up to $25 per day.
• $2,000 The Everest Leaderboard: Place $10+ win bets at Randwick Raceway (AUS) on Friday to compete for your share of $2,000 in prizes.
• Breeders’ Crown $1,000 Qualifier #1: Place $10+ win bets at Hoosier Park to compete for a share of $1,000 and earn your spot in the Oct. 27-28 Breeders’ Crown $20,000 Tournament.
• Hoosier Park $5,000 Late Pick 4 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 4 (Races 12-15) at Hoosier Park on Friday to split a $5,000 bonus jackpot.

Picks and Plays

Aqueduct: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (one mile, 12:35 p.m. ET)

The par winning Brisnet Speed rating for this type of race is 85, but none of the experienced runners have posted a number higher than 72. Therefore, we’ll favor the first-time starter #6 Pandagate (3-1), a son of champion and Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) winner Arrogate who enters off three straight five-furlong workouts.

Pandagate has strong connections in his corner. Trainer Christophe Clement wins at a solid 16% rate with horses debuting over one mile or farther, and jockey Dylan Davis has won at a 27% rate teaming up with Clement over the last two months.

Let’s key Pandagate over #3 Wisecracker (5-2) and #7 Khadullah (8-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #6 Pandagate (3-1)
• #3 Wisecracker (5-2)
• #7 Khadullah (8-1)

Wagers

• $18 Exacta: 6 with 3
• $12 Exacta: 6 with 7
  Total: $30

Delaware Park: Race 7: White Clay Creek S. (one mile, 3:30 p.m. ET)

#9 Ringy Dingy (7-2) encountered a tough field when finishing fifth on debut at Saratoga. The victorious Alys Beach returned to hit the board in the Spinaway (G1) and Alcibiades (G1), while runner-up Life Talk won her next start and later finished third in the Frizette (G1).

Ringy Dingy caught an easier field in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Aqueduct last month and pounced from a couple lengths off the pace to win by 1 3/4 lengths, earning an 85 Brisnet Speed rating that is tied for the highest number in the White Clay Creek field.

Ringy Dingy looks like a nice fit for this race, so we’ll bet her to win and call it a day.

Selections

• #9 Ringy Dingy (7-2)
• #1 Peignoir (9-2)
• #2 Power Squeeze (15-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #9 Ringy Dingy

Keeneland: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles, 4:44 p.m. ET)

#2 Enigmatic (8-1) led by a clear margin through the opening six furlongs of a one-mile maiden special weight at Kentucky Downs last month before fading to finish fourth in a 12-horse field. That was a decent try in a race featuring quick closing fractions.

Enigmatic figures to have an easier time stretching her speed while switching to dirt, which is generally more conducive to speed than turf. Trainer Brad Cox wins at a 33% rate with horses switching from turf to dirt, and at a 32% rate with horses running long for the first time, so there are plenty of reasons to believe Enigmatic can outrun her 8-1 morning line odds.

A win bet is in order, along with an exacta using #4 Genetics (7-2) and #9 Intricate (9-2) for second place.

Selections

• #2 Enigmatic (8-1)
• #4 Genetics (7-2)
• #9 Intricate (9-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #2 Enigmatic
• $5 Exacta: 2 with 4,9 ($10)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Keeneland: Race 10: $59,352 Super High 5 carryover (5:48 p.m. ET)

After going unsolved for multiple days in a row, Keeneland’s $1 Super High 5 features a $59,352 carryover for Friday’s card.

The prize pool is available to chase in Race 10, a $20,000 claimer taking place over 6 1/2 furlongs on dirt. A seemingly wide-open field of 11 has turned out, and it’s difficult to sort out the contenders.

The morning line favorite is #11 Mi Tres Por Ciento (7-2), and he offers some appeal. The eight-year-old gelding was last seen finishing second by half a length after setting the pace in a $20,000 claimer at Aqueduct. But Mi Tres Por Ciento hasn’t run since January, and though he’s turned in several bullet workouts in preparation for his return, the long layoff and drawing post 11 are meaningful obstacles to overcome.

We slightly prefer the chances of #10 Palace Kitten (5-1). Three starts back, in his first start after being claimed by trainer Robertino Diodoro, Palace Kitten won a $32,000 claimer sprinting six furlongs at Ellis Park by two lengths.

In his next start, Palace Kitten was claimed away from Diodoro by Mike Maker, who entered the son of Kitten’s Joy in a $25,000 claimer racing 1 1/8 miles over the Ellis turf. Palace Kitten finished last of six that day, but was claimed back by Diodoro. The fact Diodoro reacquired Palace Kitten is a good sign, and returning to dirt can trigger a rebound.

#6 Emerald Express (4-1) is another key contender while dropping in class out of $40,000 and $50,000 claimers on the Kentucky circuit. He brings competitive Brisnet Speed ratings to the table and should be formidable while facing easier competition.

Let’s take a stand and key Palace Kitten on top in the Super High 5 while counting on Mi Tres Por Ciento and Emerald Express to finish in the top five:

• $1 Super High 5: 10 with 6,11 with 6,11 with 3,4,5 with 3,4,5,9 ($18)
• $1 Super High 5: 10 with 6,11 with 3,4,5 with 6,11 with 3,4,5,9 ($18)
• $1 Super High 5: 10 with 6,11 with 3,4,5 with 3,4,5,9 with 6,11 ($18)
• $1 Super High 5: 10 with 3,4,5 with 6,11 with 6,11 with 3,4,5,9 ($18)
• $1 Super High 5: 10 with 3,4,5 with 6,11 with 3,4,5,9 with 6,11 ($18)
  Total: $90

Good luck!