Keeler Johnson’s picks and plays of Oct. 16, 2023

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Monday, Oct. 16 at Horseshoe Indianapolis, Finger Lakes, and Presque Isle Downs, along with tickets for the $3,006 Super High 5 carryover at Mountaineer.

Picks and Plays

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 4: $25,000 Maiden Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs, 4:03 p.m. ET)

There’s hardly any speed on paper in this 5 1/2-furlong sprint for juveniles fillies, so we’ll favor the chances of #6 Runtolive (8-5). The daughter of champion sprinter Runhappy dueled for the lead in a five-furlong contest over this track and class level on Sept. 25 before fighting on to finish third, beaten only one length.

If Runtolive shakes loose on an uncontested lead this Monday, she can cruise to victory over #1 Morning Gordita (7-2), the rallying runner-up on Sept. 25. A cold exacta is the way we’ll play.

Selections

• #6 Runtolive (8-5)
• #1 Morning Gordita (7-2)
• #9 Purr Tiger (10-1)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 6 with 1

Finger Lakes: Race 8: New York Breeders’ Futurity (six furlongs, 4:38 p.m. ET)

#7 Whatchatalkinabout (2-1) won his debut sprinting five furlongs at Belmont Park during the spring, then returned from a 3 1/2-month layoff to run third in the six-furlong Funny Cide S. at Saratoga. The Funny Cide turned out to be a deep race; the victorious The Wine Steward returned to run second in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1), while runner-up El Grande O won the Bertram F. Bongard S. in his next start.

Whatchatalkinabout figures to find the competition easier at Finger Lakes, so let’s bet him over #4 Mischief Joke (6-1), #2 Tall Paul (7-2), and #1 Trust Fund (5-2) in the trifecta and superfecta.

Selections

• #7 Whatchatalkinabout (2-1)
• #4 Mischief Joke (6-1)
• #2 Tall Paul (7-2)

Wagers

• $4 Trifecta: 7 with 1,2,4 with 1,2,4 ($24)
• $1 Superfecta: 7 with 1,2,4 with 1,2,4 ($6)
  Total: $30

Presque Isle Downs: Race 7: Finest City S. (six furlongs on Tapeta, 5:42 p.m. ET)

#2 Dancing Spirit (5-2) is the morning line favorite after running third in the P. G. Johnson S. at Saratoga and 10th in the Miss Grillo (G2) at Aqueduct. But she’s not necessarily unbeatable in the Finest City; she’s running back on just 12 days of rest, and her lone previous start at Presque Isle yielded an unremarkable second-place finish in a five-furlong maiden special weight.

Let’s try to beat Dancing Spirit with the first-time starter #10 Candy Reward (8-1). Conditioned by hot trainer Tim Girten (a 22% winner at Presque Isle this meet), Candy Reward has been cranking out fast workouts with regularity at Presque Isle, including a bullet five furlongs in :58 3/5. Throw in the fact she’ll be ridden by Presque Isle’s leading jockey Pablo Morales (a 25% winner this meet), and there’s a lot to like about Candy Reward.

Selections

• #10 Candy Reward (8-1)
• #2 Dancing Spirit (5-2)
• #5 Greavette (6-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #10 Candy Reward
• $10 Exacta: 10 with 2
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Mountaineer: Race 8: $3,006 Super High 5 carryover (9:55 p.m. ET)

No one hit the Super High 5 on Sunday at Mountaineer, which means there’s a $3,006 non-jackpot carryover on the table for Monday’s card.

The prize pool is available to chase in Race 8, a $4,000 claimer for horses who haven’t won a race in the last year. This eligibility condition, coupled with an overflow 11-horse field featuring one also-eligible entrant, makes handicapping a tricky task.

So who are the key contenders in this 5 1/2-furlong dirt sprint? Since many of the entrants bring uninspiring form to the table, morning line favorite #2 Wizard Willie (2-1) is a compelling choice. His last two starts over this track and class level have been strong; he finished second by a head in a five-furlong dash on Aug. 22 and third by a neck in a six-furlong sprint on Sept. 10.

Wizard Willie routinely sets or presses the pace and shouldn’t have much difficulty making the lead on Monday, a benefit since 44% of 5 1/2-furlong dirt sprints at Mountaineer this meet have been won in gate-to-wire fashion. Throw in the fact Wizard Willie brings a sharp string of Brisnet Speed ratings to the table, and the eight-year-old gelding is a logical horse to key on top in the Super High 5.

Who should we use underneath? #9 Doctor Lee (9-2) is a logical candidate. The nine-year-old veteran has cracked the top five in seven straight $4,000 claimers at Mountaineer, all since being claimed by trainer Terry Crago last September. Doctor Lee finished runner-up in a 5 1/2-furlong dash last time out and has every chance to record another top-five finish. In fact, his form is compelling enough to suggest a top-three finish is likely.

#5 K’s Little Bill (5-2) can’t be dismissed either. The 11-year-old gelding is dropping in class out of $5,000 claimers and is eligible to fire a competitive shot while switching from Tapeta to dirt. The fact he’ll be ridden by hot jockey Edgar Paucar (a 27% winner at Mountaineer this meet) adds to the appeal.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

• $1 Super High 5: 2 with 9 with 5,10 with 3,4,5,10 with 1,3,4,5,10 ($18)
• $1 Super High 5: 2 with 5,10 with 9 with 3,4,5,10 with 1,3,4,5,10 ($18)
• $1 Super High 5: 2 with 1,3,4 with 9 with 5,10 with 3,4,5,10 ($14)
  Total: $50

Good luck!