Keeler Johnson’s picks and plays of Oct. 17, 2023

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Tuesday, Oct. 17 at Parx Racing, along with horses to play in carryovers at Finger Lakes and Horseshoe Indianapolis.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Trifecta Tuesday: Receive a 15% bonus on trifecta winnings excluding stake amount; up to $25 per day.
• Summerside 10x Points: Opt in and receive 10x reward points on all Summerside wagers (excluding show bets) on Tuesdays from Sept. 12 through Oct. 24.

Picks and Plays

Parx Racing: Race 1: $40,000 Maiden Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs, 12:40 p.m. ET)

The experienced runners in this field of juveniles aren’t overly formidable on paper, so we’ll take a shot backing the first-time starter #1 Sheer Dominance (5-1). There are several stats in his favor:

• Trainer Louis Linder Jr. wins at a 22% rate with horses debuting in maiden claimers.
• Jockey Luis Ocasio has won at a 30% rate teaming up with Linder over the last two months.
• Sire Lord Nelson is responsible for a respectable 11% winners from first-time starters.
• Post 1 has produced 21% winners in 5 1/2-furlong dirt sprints at Parx this year.

Taking all of these factors together, Sheer Dominance is worth betting to win and keying over #4 Dos de Oros (5-2) in the exacta:

Selections

• #1 Sheer Dominance (5-1)
• #4 Dos de Oros (5-2)
• #5 Beware of Pride (9-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 Sheer Dominance
• $10 Exacta: 1 with 4
  Total: $30

Parx Racing: Race 8: $16,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (6 1/2 furlongs, 3:49 p.m. ET)

#7 Masrour (5-2) won four straight races at Parx Racing (including a trio of $8,000 starter allowances) by daylight margins before fading to finish fifth in a $10,000 starter allowance. On that occasion, Masrour dueled for the lead over a sloppy track and was only beaten 4 1/2 lengths in a large field.

Masrour is 11-6-1-1 on fast tracks and 2-0-0-0 on off tracks. He should encounter dry footing on Tuesday, opening the door for a rebound. Let’s bet him to win and single him to start a double wager.

Selections

• #7 Masrour (5-2)
• #4 High Value (4-1)
• #10 Quick Return (9-2)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #7 Masrour
• $15 Double: 7 with 2
  Total: $30

Parx Racing: Race 9: M.P. Ballezzi Appreciation Mile S. (one mile, 4:26 p.m. ET)

#2 Nimitz Class (5-2) boasts five wins and three seconds from eight starts this year, with seven of those runs coming against stakes competition. He was particularly sharp in the Parx Dirt Mile over this track and distance last month, wearing down multiple Grade 1 winner Gunite to prevail by 1 3/4 lengths with a flashy 103 Brisnet Speed rating.

Nimitz Class has every chance to win right back in the M.P. Ballezzi Appreciation Mile, even while facing a large field. We’ll single him to conclude our double wager and key him over the improving #8 King Kumbalay (6-1) in an exacta for good measure.

Selections

• #2 Nimitz Class (5-2)
• #8 King Kumbalay (6-1)
• #7 Be Better (6-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 2 with 8

Carryover Watch

Finger Lakes: Race 3: $3,216 Pick 6 carryover (2:13 p.m. ET)

The Tuesday card at Finger Lakes features a non-jackpot carryover worth $3,216 in the $1 Pick 6.

The sequence gets underway in Race 3, a one-mile and 70-yard dirt allowance for horses who have never won two races. With only six entries, it’s an ideal spot in which to seek a single.

We’ll throw our support behind morning line favorite #2 Pot of Gold (2-1), runner-up in a 1 1/8-mile contest over this track and class level on Oct. 2. The three-year-old colt set the pace that day and was only beaten 2 1/4 lengths while earning a career-best 75 Brisnet Speed rating.

Pot of Gold has already beaten two of his key rivals in Tuesday’s field and previously broke his maiden racing one mile and 70 yards at Finger Lakes, so there’s a lot to like about his form lines. Throw in the fact he has hot jockey Keiber Coa and high-percentage trainer Jeremiah Englehart in his corner, and Pot of Gold is a compelling single to start the Pick 6.

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 6: $4,396 Super High 5 carryover (5:05 p.m. ET)

The 10-cent Grand High 5 in Tuesday’s sixth race at Horseshoe Indianapolis features a $4,396 non-jackpot carryover.

Race 6 is a $12,500 maiden claimer taking place over 1 1/16 miles on turf, and with 14 horses (including two also-eligibles) in the entries, it’s a difficult race to decipher.

That said, a couple of contenders look strong. One is #6 Bold Bali (5-1). The three-year-old gelding placed third in a maiden special weight against his own age group at Horseshoe Indianapolis earlier this year, and last time out he finished a respectable sixth against older rivals in a $20,000 maiden claimer. Bold Bali brings decent Brisnet Speed ratings to the table and has hot jockey Declan Cannon (a 25% winner at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet) in his corner, so dropping down to the $12,500 maiden claiming level can trigger a competitive showing.

#11 Ghost Bike (5-2) is another formidable threat. He finished ahead of Bold Bali when fourth in the above-mentioned $20,000 maiden claimer and was beaten only a head in a $12,500 maiden claimer racing 1 1/16 miles over the Horseshoe Indianapolis lawn earlier this year.

We’ll also mention #8 Red Five (20-1) as a live longshot. He’s shown little in his first three starts against tougher competition, but is dropping sharply in class out of a $40,000 maiden claimer at Horseshoe Indianapolis and is eligible to move forward under hot jockey Alex Achard, a 22% winner this meet.

Good luck!