Keeler Johnson’s picks and plays of Oct. 18, 2023

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, Oct. 18 at Keeneland and Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with a horse to single in the $52,497 Pick 6 carryover at Keeneland.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Hoosier Park $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any eligible race at Hoosier Park.
• Horseshoe Indianapolis $3,000 Late Pick 5 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 5 at Horseshoe Indianapolis every Wednesday in October to win your share of a $3,000 bonus jackpot.
• Keeneland Win Bonus: Hit multiple win bets in a single day at Keeneland to receive a bonus payoff of up to $25 per day.

Picks and Plays

Keeneland: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (seven furlongs, 3:08 p.m. ET)

#11 Air of Defiance (3-1) didn’t get off to the best start in his debut sprinting six furlongs at Saratoga, but rallied over a sloppy track to take second place behind impressive winner Fierceness. Both the third-place finisher (Billal) and seventh-place finisher (Apollo Ten) have returned to win, so it’s safe to say Air of Defiance finished ahead of some capable rivals.

Trainer Brad Cox wins at a lofty 28% rate with second-time starters, so we’ll bank on Air of Defiance to move forward and deliver victory in his second try. A win bet is in order, along with an exacta using #3 Special Element (10-1) and #12 Anthem King (5-1) for second place.

Selections

• #11 Air of Defiance (3-1)
• #3 Special Element (10-1)
• #12 Anthem King (5-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #11 Air of Defiance
• $5 Exacta: 11 with 3,12 ($10)
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs, 5:05 p.m. ET)

#4 Gospel Music (3-1) ran well in her debut over this track, distance, and class level, racing close to the pace before staying on for second behind next-out Back Home Again S. winner Charged Legacy.

Gospel Music likewise contested the Back Home Again and got caught up chasing a hot pace before fading to finish seventh. If she encounters a slightly easier pace while dropping back down to the maiden ranks, Gospel Music can bounce back with a winning run for high-percentage trainer Brad Cox.

We’ll keep things simple with a win bet on Gospel Music and a cold exacta using #10 Lil Gin N Class (5-1) for second place.

Selections

• #4 Gospel Music (3-1)
• #10 Lil Gin N Class (5-1)
• #6 Seashellsallysells (20-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #4 Gospel Music
• $10 Exacta: 4 with 10
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 9: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 6:38 p.m. ET)

Since 2021, trainer Wesley Ward has compiled an excellent 7-for-16 (44%) record debuting juveniles at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Ward is 2-for-2 with all starters at Horseshoe Indianapolis this year, so combining these stats together, Ward’s unraced two-year-old #6 My Name’s Jeff (4-1) is worthy of a win bet.

My Name’s Jeff hasn’t compiled the flashiest work tab, but he’s a son of What Now (who sires a solid 14% winners from first-time starters), and he’s shipping in from Keeneland. This isn’t the toughest race on paper, so My Name’s Jeff’s 4-1 morning line odds are enticing. 

Selections

• #6 My Name’s Jeff (4-1)
• #4 Cringe (7-2)
• #9 Razed (10-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 My Name’s Jeff

Carryover Watch

Keeneland: Race 3: $52,497 Pick 6 carryover (2:04 p.m. ET)

$52,497. That’s the size of the non-jackpot carryover up for grabs in Wednesday’s $1 Pick 6 at Keeneland. Sounds enticing, doesn’t it?

Winning a share won’t be easy. The six races contain 69 horses before scratches, averaging 11.5 per race. It works out to 1,555,200 possible outcomes, and while that number will drop significantly once scratches are announced (there are 10 also-eligible entrants), it’s still an imposing sequence filled with possibilities.

Here’s the bright side: Race 6, the fourth leg of the sequence, drew only six horses. It’s an $80,000 allowance optional claimer for fillies and mares racing 1 1/16 miles on dirt, and the small field makes singling heavy favorite #4 Punchbowl (4-5) a viable possibility.

A three-year-old daughter of champion and successful sire Uncle Mo, Punchbowl opened her career with a pair of victories at Oaklawn Park. She debuted in a six-furlong maiden special weight and rallied powerfully after a troubled start to prevail over next-out winners Unsung Melody and Sacred Wish. The latter filly has gone on to place in the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) and Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2).

Punchbowl subsequently stepped up in class and distance for a $100,000 allowance optional claimer racing 1 1/16 miles, and this time she led all the way to win by 4 1/4 lengths.

These victories stamped Punchbowl as the favorite for the 1 1/16-mile Ashland (G1) at Keeneland, in which she tracked the pace before rallying down the homestretch to finish second by half a length against Defining Purpose, who has gone on to win the Indiana Oaks (G3) and place third in the Alabama (G1).

Punchbowl went to the sidelines following the Ashland, but she returned to serious training in late August and has since posted eight timed workouts. She’s trained by Brad Cox, who wins at a 25% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more, and the 98 Brisnet Speed rating she posted in the Ashland is the highest number belonging to any horse in Wednesday’s field.

In short, Punchbowl looks ready to run to her 4-5 morning line odds and deliver victory as a Pick 6 single.

Good luck!