Keeler Johnson’s picks and plays of Oct. 19, 2023

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Thursday, Oct. 19 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Aqueduct, along with horses to play in the $2,865 Super High 5 carryover at Keeneland.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Hoosier Park $1,000 Pick 4 Hit It & Split It: Hit the late Pick 4 on Thursdays at Hoosier Park to win your share of a $1,000 weekly jackpot.
• Breeders’ Crown $2,000 Qualifier #2: Place $10+ win bets at Hoosier Park to compete for a share of $2,000 and earn your spot in the Oct. 27-28 Breeders’ Crown $20,000 Tournament.
• Keeneland Win Bonus: Hit multiple win bets in a single day at Keeneland to receive a bonus payoff of up to $25 per day.

Picks and Plays

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 2: $25,000 Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs, 2:41 p.m. ET)

#1 Gracie’s Boy Roy (9-2) hasn’t missed the trifecta in four starts. Two starts back he wired a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Prairie Meadows by five lengths, and in his most recent start he dueled through hot fractions in the six-furlong Circle City S. at Horseshoe Indianapolis before weakening to third.

Gracie’s Boy Roy received a 75 Brisnet Speed rating for his Circle City effort, tied for the highest number belonging to any horse in this $25,000 claimer. Dropping down the class ladder (and hopefully encountering an easier pace) can send Gracie’s Boy Roy to the winner’s circle.

We’ll bet Gracie’s Boy Roy to win and single him to start a double wager.

Selections

• #1 Gracie’s Boy Roy (9-2)
• #5 Dunphy (3-1)
• #6 Mr. Redlegs (5-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 Gracie’s Boy Roy
• $10 Double: 1 with 2
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 3: $25,000 Maiden Claiming (one mile, 3:12 p.m. ET)

#2 Sensible Choice (9-5) owns easily the highest Brisnet Speed rating in this field of two-year-old maidens, having posted a 64 when finishing fourth on debut in a $20,000 maiden claimer sprinting six furlongs at Churchill Downs last month. None of her rivals have posted a number higher than 57.

Trainer Helen Pitts wins at a 22% rate with second-time starters and at a 38% rate with horses running long for the first time, so Sensible Choice is eligible to improve while stretching out over one mile for her second start. We’ll single her to conclude our double wager, then add an exacta using #7 Motel Mischief (7-2) and #4 Don’t Touch (12-1) for second place.

Selections

• #2 Sensible Choice (9-5)
• #7 Motel Mischief (7-2)
• #4 Don’t Touch (12-1)

Wagers

• $12 Exacta: 2 with 7
• $8 Exacta: 2 with 4
  Total: $20

Aqueduct: Race 8: Glen Cove S. (six furlongs, 4:22 p.m. ET)

#2 Danse Macabre (3-1) hasn’t missed the trifecta in eight starts, along the way winning three stakes: the 6 1/2-furlong Untapable S. at Kentucky Downs, the one-mile Herecomesthebride (G3) at Gulfstream Park, and the 5 1/2-furlong Mamzelle S. at Churchill Downs.

Danse Macabre recently returned from a four-month layoff to finish a game second in the 6 1/2-furlong Music City S. at Kentucky Downs. The third-place finisher, Bling, flattered the form by returning to win a Keeneland allowance.

The Glen Cove looks like the perfect spot for Danse Macabre to get back to her winning ways, so we’ll opt for a straightforward win bet and call it a day.

Selections

• #2 Danse Macabre (3-1)
• #9 Dontlookbackatall (7-2)
• #5 Future Is Now (8-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #2 Danse Macabre

Carryover Watch

Keeneland: Race 9: $2,865 Super High 5 carryover (5:16 p.m. ET)

Do you have what it takes to win a share of the $2,865 Super High 5 carryover up for grabs in Thursday’s ninth race at Keeneland? It might not be as hard as it first appears, but we won’t know for sure until scratches are announced.

Here’s the problem: Race 9 drew an overflow field of 16, which means four fillies are on the also-eligible list. That includes #13 Destiny Star (3-1), the second choice on the morning line and our top choice to win. The daughter of Catholic Boy debuted in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Saratoga during the summer and rallied after a slightly troubled start to finish fourth, gaining 3 1/2 lengths through the final furlong alone to finish three lengths away from victory.

It turns out that was a deep race. The victorious Gala Brand came back to beat males in the With Anticipation (G3) at Saratoga, while runner-up Hidden Class won a Kentucky Downs allowance in her next run. If Destiny Star gets off to a better start while facing (seemingly) easier competition at Keeneland, she’ll be a formidable win threat… but will she be allowed to start? She’ll need one scratch from the main body of the field in order to draw in off the also-eligible list.

Our hope is that Destiny Star will make the field, in which case we would take a stand and key her on top in the Super High 5. But regardless of whether Destiny Star races or not, we can highlight morning line favorite #4 Wonder Wave (5-2) as a filly worth using heavily in the Super High 5.

Wonder Wave has started twice in 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weights over the Ellis Park turf course, and she’s run well both times. In her July 16 debut, she rallied from sixth place in a field of 11 to finish third behind a pair of next-out winners, including Natalma (G1) winner She Feels Pretty. And on Aug. 28, Wonder Wave charged from fifth place in a field of 10 to finish second with a 73 Brisnet Speed rating that stacks up well against Thursday’s field.

If Destiny Star is allowed to start, we recommend emphasizing Wonder Wave underneath, counting on her to finish either second or third. If Destiny Star scratches, upgrade Wonder Wave and play her in the first and second positions.

Good luck!