Keeler Johnson’s picks and plays of Oct. 2, 2023

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Monday, Oct. 2 at Finger Lakes and Presque Isle Downs, including horses to play in the $2,316 Pick 6 carryover at Finger Lakes.

Picks and Plays

Finger Lakes: Race 4: $5,000 Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs, 2:42 p.m. ET)

Pacesetters have won 46% of 5 1/2-furlong sprints at Finger Lakes this meet, so it’s safe to say speed is dangerous. There are two primary pace players in this low-level claimer for fillies and mares: #1 Thin Legs (5-2) and #2 Pretty Miss Keens (2-1). Both are dropping in class and look similarly fast on paper, so we’ll give a slight edge to Pretty Miss Keens, who races for the hot jockey/trainer duo of Emanuel De Diego and Jeremiah Englehart.

A cold exacta is the way we’ll play.

Selections

• #2 Pretty Miss Keens (2-1)
• #1 Thin Legs (5-2)
• #5 Midmon (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 2 with 1

Finger Lakes: Race 7: Jack Betta Be Rite S. (1 1/16 miles, 4:09 p.m. ET)

#3 Venti Valentine (3-1) has performed well against non-state-restricted competition, winning the 2022 Busher S. and placing in the 2021 Demoiselle (G2) and 2022 Gazelle (G3). But she’s since developed into a classy competitor against New York-bred competition, and she arrives at Finger Lakes off a half-length score in the Johnstone Mile H. at Saratoga.

Venti Valentine’s Brisnet Speed ratings look strong against the Jack Betta Be Rite field, so we’ll bet her to win and key her over #6 Know It All Audrey (4-1) and #2 Gone and Forgotten (7-2) in the exacta. 

Selections

• #3 Venti Valentine (3-1)
• #6 Know It All Audrey (4-1)
• #2 Gone and Forgotten (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #3 Venti Valentine
• $5 Exacta: 3 with 2,6 ($10)
  Total: $30

Presque Isle Downs: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on Tapeta, 4:48 p.m. ET)

#3 Rock N Reward (5-2) ran a big race when debuting over this track, distance, and class level on Sept. 20, finishing second by a head while pulling 9 3/4 lengths clear of the third-place finisher. Her reward was a 74 Brisnet Speed rating, seven points higher than the par winning number for these conditions.

If Rock N Reward runs anywhere near as well in her second start, she can deliver victory for hot trainer Tim Girten, a 22% winner at Presque Isle this meet. We’ll bet Rock N Reward to win and key her over her unraced but fast-working stablemate #8 Reigert Girls (6-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #3 Rock N Reward (5-2)
• #8 Reigert Girls (6-1)
• #5 Twisted Empress (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #3 Rock N Reward
• $10 Exacta: 3 with 8
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Finger Lakes: Race 3: $2,316 Pick 6 carryover (2:13 p.m. ET)

The racing week at Finger Lakes is kicking off on a high note. The Monday card brings a $2,316 non-jackpot carryover in the $1 Pick 6.

Mathematically speaking, it’s a reasonably straightforward sequence. The six races contain 50 horses in total, averaging about 8.3 per race. It works out to 313,600 possible outcomes, which isn’t too bad for a Pick 6, especially if we can find a single or two to build tickets around.

We’ve already analyzed a couple legs of the sequence. In Race 4, we narrowly prefer #2 Pretty Miss Keens (2-1) over #1 Thin Legs (5-2), but Pick 6 bettors might wish to use both of these speedy fillies in equal strength.

In Race 7, the Jack Betta Be Rite S., we could be talked into singling the accomplished #3 Venti Valentine (3-1), who figures to find the competition a bit easier after winning a stakes at Saratoga during the summer.

But a more confident single can be found in Race 6, a 5 1/2-furlong allowance for horses who have never won two races. We mentioned previously that pacesetters have won 46% of 5 1/2-furlong sprints at Finger Lakes this meet, and morning line favorite #3 Tommy Gun (5-2) brings excellent early speed to the table.

Tommy Gun has set or pressed the pace in eight of his 10 starts, including three out of four since being claimed by trainer Mike Maker. Last time out, he carved out quick fractions in a $25,000 claimer sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Saratoga before weakening slightly to finish second.

Tommy Gun has posted Brisnet Speed ratings of 82, 83, and 89 this year, which is significant since his rivals at Finger Lakes have been struggling to break the 80 plateau. Tommy Gun comes in as the fastest horse on paper and should have every chance to secure the early lead under hot jockey John Davila Jr. (a 21% winner at Finger Lakes this meet), so any way you slice it Tommy Gun is a compelling Pick 6 single.

Good luck!