Keeler Johnson’s picks and plays of Oct. 20, 2023

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, Oct. 20 at Aqueduct and Remington Park, then analyzes five-figure carryovers at Keeneland and Santa Anita.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Keeneland Win Bonus: Hit multiple win bets in a single day at Keeneland to receive a bonus payoff of up to $25 per day.
• Breeders’ Crown $3,000 Qualifier #3: Place $10+ win bets at Hoosier Park to compete for a share of $3,000 and earn your spot in the Oct. 27-28 Breeders’ Crown $20,000 Tournament.

Picks and Plays

Aqueduct: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (seven furlongs, 3:50 p.m. ET)

#10 Quiet Wisdom (4-5) is the fastest entrant from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective, and he looks tough to beat. He’s started twice over this class level, debuting with a runner-up finish at Saratoga behind Tall Paul (who has since placed against stakes company) before finishing third by two lengths with a troubled start at Aqueduct.

If Quiet Wisdom gets off to a clean start in his second Aqueduct try, he can deliver victory under four-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz. #4 Perliano (9-2), runner-up over this track and class level in his most recent start, can complete a cold exacta.

Selections

• #10 Quiet Wisdom (4-5)
• #4 Perliano (9-2)
• #7 Bumper (12-1)

Wagers

• $25 Exacta: 10 with 4

Remington Park: Race 9: Oklahoma Classics Cup S. (1 1/16 miles, 12:05 a.m. ET, after midnight)

#2 Ghost Hero (9-5) has been a force to reckon with when competing against fellow Oklahoma-breds, winning his last four starts against state-restricted competition (including three stakes) while showing lots of speed on every occasion.

Ghost Zero has also shown ability against non-state-restricted competition. In the 1 1/16-mile Texas Derby, he set the pace before finishing fourth by less than one length. In the seven-furlong Robert Hilton Memorial, he finished third behind next-out graded stakes winner Damon’s Mound. And in the 1 1/8-mile Oklahoma Derby (G3), he carved out the pace before weakening in the final furlong to finish 10th.

Returning to the Oklahoma-bred ranks should make Ghost Zero a formidable win threat. Let’s single him to start a double wager and bet him over seven-time stakes winner #6 Number One Dude (8-5) in a cold exacta.

Selections

• #2 Ghost Hero (9-5)
• #6 Number One Dude (8-5)
• #4 Absaroka (8-1)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 2 with 6
• $10 Double: 2 with 6
  Total: $30

Remington Park: Race 10: OKC Turf Classic (1 1/16 miles on turf, 12:37 a.m. ET, after midnight)

#6 Rowdy Rascal (6-1) put up a good try in the 7 1/2-furlong Red Earth S. over the Remington Park turf course last month, carving out the pace before staying on for third place by two lengths. He finished only half a length behind runner-up Number One Dude, the above-mentioned seven-time stakes winner.

Rowdy Rascal has tactical speed and figures to sit a nice trip setting or pressing the pace. Since morning line favorite #7 Dark Afternoon (3-1) is a sprinter who has never run farther than seven furlongs, we’ll take a shot betting Rowdy Rascal to win and singling him to conclude our double wager.

Selections

• #6 Rowdy Rascal (6-1)
• #7 Dark Afternoon (3-1)
• #3 Kodaline (4-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 Rowdy Rascal

Carryover Watch

Keeneland: Race 5: $24,718 Pick 6 carryover (3:08 p.m. ET)

The Friday card at Keeneland brings a $24,718 carryover in the $1 Pick 6.

Planning to play along, but not sure where to begin? We’ve got you covered with a live longshot and vulnerable favorite:

Live longshot: Race 5: #7 Smokey Smokey (8-1)

The recent form of Smokey Smokey has been muddied by a couple of defeats running long, but truth be told they weren’t so bad. In a one-mile maiden special weight at Kentucky Downs, he finished third while beaten only a nose for second-place by a next-out winner. Then in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Churchill Downs, Smokey Smokey was in contention for most of the race, but checked between rivals while tiring in the closing yards and wound up finishing eighth by 5 3/4 lengths.

Smokey Smokey is cutting back in distance for Race 5, a maiden special weight for two-year-olds sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs on turf. Smokey Smokey actually debuted over this distance and class level during the summer at Saratoga, finishing second with an 83 Brisnet Speed rating equal to the par winning number of Friday’s conditions. Smokey Smokey has every chance to spring an 8-1 surprise at Keeneland, which would start the Pick 6 on a lucrative note.

Vulnerable favorite: Race 8: #8 Raging Sea (6-5)

Raging Sea is shaping up as a heavy favorite in this 1 1/8-mile allowance for fillies and mares, but the daughter of Curlin isn’t necessarily unbeatable. She ran well when third in the Alcibiades (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) at Keeneland last year, but the form of those races hasn’t held up especially well.

Raging Sea missed the winter and spring, and since returning to action in August she’s struggled a bit. She was beaten to fourth place when returning in a one-mile $50,000 allowance optional claimer at Saratoga, after which she ran second in a 1 1/8-mile contest over the same track and class level. The latter run yielded a respectable 96 Brisnet Speed rating, but #3 Poblano (7-2) posted an even faster 98 when wiring a one-mile maiden special weight at Ellis Park two starts back.

Pick 6 bettors might not want to exclude Raging Sea entirely, but using her as a short-priced single could be a risky proposition. Backing her up with Poblano and perhaps the stakes veteran #10 Sabra Tuff (6-1)—who finished fifth in the Alcibiades and fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies last year—might be the way to go.

Santa Anita: Race 2: $17,956 Super High 5 carryover (4:30 p.m. ET)

There’s an enticing $17,956 Super High 5 carryover up for grabs in Friday’s second race at Santa Anita.

Race 2 is a $50,000 maiden claimer for California-bred fillies and mares sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, and we’re keen to key #1 Eltonsingsanother (5-2), who vied for command through decent fractions when finishing third in a six-furlong sprint over this track and class level on Sept. 29. She can move forward on Friday for the red-hot jockey/trainer duo of Antonio Fresu and Mark Glatt, who have gone 6-for-12 teaming up together over the last two months.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

• $1 Super High 5: 1 with 6 with 3,5,7 with 2,3,5,7 with 2,3,4,5,7 ($27)
• $1 Super High 5: 1 with 3,5,7 with 6 with 2,3,5,7 with 2,3,4,5,7 ($27)
  Total: $54

Good luck!