Keeler Johnson’s picks and plays of Oct. 3, 2023

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Tuesday, Oct. 3 at Horseshoe Indianapolis, including a 5-1 shot with a regal pedigree.

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Picks and Plays

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 2: $25,000 Maiden Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs, 3:01 p.m. ET)

#6 Summer Dance (4-5) is the heavy favorite while dropping in class off a last-place finish in a $50,000 maiden claimer at Churchill Downs. Two starts back, she set the pace in a $30,000 maiden claimer at Ellis Park before staying on to finish third with a 62 Brisnet Speed rating.

However, it’s worth noting the par winning Brisnet Speed rating for Tuesday’s conditions is 71, suggesting Summer Dance might be vulnerable to a first-time starter like #2 Classic Mystery (9-2). Trainer Thomas Drury Jr. has compiled a sharp 2-1-0-1 record with first-time starters at Horseshoe Indianapolis his meet, and a lengthy series of half-mile workouts at Churchill Downs should have Classic Mystery fit for a competitive debut.

Let’s take a shot betting Classic Mystery over Summer Dance in a cold exacta.

Selections

• #2 Classic Mystery (9-2)
• #6 Summer Dance (4-5)
• #1 Save the Moment (5-2)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 2 with 6

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 5: $40,000 Maiden Claiming (one mile on turf, 4:34 p.m. ET)

#9 Hawks Creek (8-5) ought to have this field measured. He debuted with a close third-place finish in a $50,000 maiden claimer racing one mile over the Ellis Park turf course, then stepped up in class for a one-mile maiden special weight at Kentucky Downs and finished seventh.

Dropping in class for a $40,000 maiden claimer at Horseshoe Indianapolis might be all Hawks Creek needs to visit the winner’s circle. We’ll bet him to win and play him over #3 Copperlite (7-2) and #5 Mitole’s Baytown (10-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #9 Hawks Creek (8-5)
• #3 Copperlite (7-2)
• #5 Mitole’s Baytown (10-1)

Wagers

• $18 to win on #9 Hawks Creek
• $6 Exacta: 9 with 3,5 ($12)
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 5:36 p.m. ET)

Juddmonte homebred #6 Badge of War (5-1) is a son of successful sire War Front out of the Empire Maker Brooch, which makes him a half-brother to 2021 Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Mandaloun.

Badge of War has put together a sharp work tab at Horseshoe Indianapolis highlighted by a couple of bullet five-furlong workouts. Trainer Brad Cox has gone 5-for-22 (23%) debuting juveniles in turf routes at Horseshoe Indianapolis since 2018, so at 5-1, Badge of War is worth betting to win and playing over stablemate #5 Finn and Brennan (9-2) in the exacta.

Selections

• #6 Badge of War (5-1)
• #5 Finn and Brennan (9-2)
• #3 Mighty Kai (4-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 Badge of War
• $10 Exacta: 6 with 5
  Total: $30

Good luck!