Keeler Johnson’s picks and plays of Oct. 5, 2023

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Thursday, Oct. 5 at Presque Isle Downs and Charles Town.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Hoosier Park $1,000 Pick 4 Hit It & Split It: Hit the late Pick 4 on Thursdays at Hoosier Park to win your share of a $1,000 weekly jackpot.

Picks and Plays

Presque Isle Downs: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on Tapeta, 4:21 p.m. ET)

#5 Madurai (9-5) debuted with a third-place finish in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Presque Isle Downs, earning a 74 Brisnet Speed rating higher than the par winning number (71) for Wednesday’s conditions. He’s bred to thrive while stretching out over one mile, and trainer Todd Beattie wins at a 32% rate with second-time starters, so all signs suggest Madurai is sitting on a winning run.

#6 Express Star (5-1), who posted a 73 Brisnet Speed rating when second over this track, distance, and class level on Sept. 20, can complete a cold exacta.

Selections

• #5 Madurai (9-5)
• #6 Express Star (5-1)
• #4 Record Time (5-2)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 5 with 6

Charles Town: Race 6: $5,000 Maiden Claiming (6 1/2 furlongs, 9:21 p.m. ET)

#6 Herecomes Scarlett (5-2) finished a close fourth over this track, distance, and class level on July 29, then came back on Aug. 10 to finish fourth in a $12,500 maiden claimer sprinting seven furlongs at Charles Town.

Herecomes Scarlett is returning to the $5,000 level and picking up red-hot apprentice jockey Alex Concepcion, a 26% winner at Charles Town this meet. Concepcion rides with a five-pound weight allowance, and Herecomes Scarlett is getting another two-pound weight break by entering for a $4,500 claiming tag instead of a $5,000 tag. That combination should help her turn the tables on #3 Nelly Too (2-1), the runner-up on Aug. 10.

Let’s bet Herecomes Scarlett to win and single her to start a double wager.

Selections

• #6 Herecomes Scarlett (5-2)
• #8 Lily Mor (12-1)
• #3 Nelly Too (2-1)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #6 Herecomes Scarlett
• $15 Double: 6 with 6
  Total: $30

Charles Town: Race 7: Allowance (4 1/2 furlongs, 9:49 p.m. ET)

Pacesetters have won 54% of 4 1/2-furlong sprints at Charles Town this meet, and #6 Lunatic (1-1) has shown lots of speed competing in Southern California. She’s set, pressed, or tracked the pace in each of her last nine starts, and two starts back she led essentially all the way to win a $20,000 claimer sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs at Santa Anita.

Lunatic has earned Brisnet Speed ratings in the 78-91 range in nine consecutive races, a significant achievement since none of her Charles Town rivals have recently posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 77. Lunatic looks tough to beat while making her first start for the hot jockey/trainer duo of Arnaldo Bocachica and Jeff Runco, so we’ll single Lunatic to conclude our double wager and bet her over #3 Shutupn’kissme (6-1) and #7 Mygidgetmarie (10-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #6 Lunatic (1-1)
• #3 Shutupn’kissme (6-1)
• #7 Mygidgetmarie (10-1)

Wagers

• $10 Exacta: 6 with 3,7 ($20)

Good luck!