Keeler Johnson’s picks and plays of Oct. 6, 2023

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, Oct. 6 at Aqueduct and Delta Downs, along with horses to play in Pick 5 carryovers at Laurel Park and Charles Town.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Keeneland Win Bonus: Hit multiple win bets in a single day at Keeneland to receive a bonus payoff of up to $25 per day.
• $2,000 Everest Carnival Leaderboard: Place $10+ win bets at Rosehill (AUS) on Friday to compete for your share of $2,000 in prizes.

Picks and Plays

Aqueduct: Race 2: Gio Ponti S. (one mile on turf, 1:08 p.m. ET)

#5 Appraise (6-5) has run well against tough company. Last year, he finished second in the Summer (G1) at Woodbine. At Saratoga two months ago, he finished second in the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame (G2) behind multiple graded stakes winner Carl Spackler.

Appraise should be tough to beat while dropping in class for four-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer Chad Brown, a 21% winner at Aqueduct this meet. Let’s key Appraise over #3 Northern Invader (8-5) and #4 Ohana Honor (4-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #5 Appraise (6-5)
• #3 Northern Invader (8-5)
• #4 Ohana Honor (4-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 5 with 3,4 ($30)

Aqueduct: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (one mile, 3:48 p.m. ET)

#9 Drum Roll Please (2-1) exits a runner-up finish in a one-mile maiden special weight on Sept. 1 at Saratoga. Although he was beaten 7 1/2 lengths, the winning time was fast, and Drum Roll Please earned a flashy 96 Brisnet Speed rating while pulling 13 lengths clear of the third-place finisher.

If Drum Roll Please repeats or improves upon that performance at Aqueduct, he can win for fun. A $30 win bet is in order, along with a cold exacta using #5 Hunt Ball (7-2) for second place. A half-brother to 2022 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) winner Cody’s Wish, Hunt Ball debuted in a six-furlong sprint at Saratoga and rallied to finish second behind Risk It, who flattered the form with a subsequent runner-up effort in the Iroquois (G3) on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

Selections

• #9 Drum Roll Please (2-1)
• #5 Hunt Ball (7-2)
• #8 Enlighten (4-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #9 Drum Roll Please
• $10 Exacta: 9 with 5
  Total: $40

Delta Downs: Race 8: Gold Cup S. (seven furlongs, 9:31 p.m. ET)

#4 Touchuponastar (2-1) obliterated six straight races against Louisiana-bred rivals, including four stakes, before stepping up in class to finish second in the Steve Sexton Mile (G3). The speedy four-year-old gelding has been freshened since May by hot trainer Jeff Delhomme and should be formidable while returning to the Louisiana-bred ranks for the Gold Cup. Don’t forget, he’s 2-for-2 at Delta Downs.

Defending Gold Cup winner #5 Who Took the Money (3-1) can battle with the improving Evangeline Downs allowance winner #2 Mangum (5-1) to complete the exacta.

Selections

• #4 Touchuponastar (2-1)
• #5 Who Took the Money (3-1)
• #2 Mangum (5-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 4 with 2,5 ($30)

Carryover Watch

Laurel Park: Race 6: $13,749 Pick 5 carryover (3:00 p.m. ET)

Friday’s 50-cent Late Pick 5 at Laurel Park features a non-jackpot carryover worth $13,749.

It’s a challenging sequence on paper, which means there are plenty of live price horses to consider. They include #7 Grand Wiser (6-1), an appealing mid-range longshot in Race 7. As the fifth choice in a field of nine, Grand Wiser will add value to the Pick 5 if he visits the winner’s circle.

Race 7 is a $5,000 starter allowance taking place over six furlongs on dirt, and those conditions should suit Grand Wiser just fine. The five-year-old gelding has won six of his last nine starts, including a quartet of $5,000 starter allowances at Penn National. Along the way he’s posted seven Brisnet Speed ratings in the 88-93 range.

None of Grand Wiser’s Friday rivals have been running as consistently fast on the Brisnet Speed rating scale, so from that perspective he’s the horse to beat. And when you consider how Grand Wiser ran second in a $25,000 allowance optional claimer last time out, dropping in class for a $5,000 starter allowance should make Grand Wiser a formidable win threat at a nice price.

Charles Town: Race 4: $32,520 Pick 5 carryover (8:32 p.m. ET)

The Pick 5 carryover at Laurel Park is enticing, but the one at Charles Town is even bigger, coming in at $32,520.

Looking for a single to build tickets around? Check out Race 4, the opening leg of the sequence. It’s a $5,000 claimer for fillies and mares who have never won three races, and Brisnet Speed ratings suggest #6 Naughty Nan (9-5) will be tough to beat in the 4 1/2-furlong dirt sprint.

Look at the last two Brisnet Speed ratings posted by each of the nine entrants. Whereas eight of the runners have failed to exceed a 70, Naughty Nan owns back-to-back 72s. On Sept. 2 at Timonium, she wired a $5,000 claimer for non-winners of two races by 4 3/4 lengths. On Sept. 21, she tackled a $10,000 claimer for non-winners of three races and finished second.

If Naughty Nan runs her typical race while dropping to the $5,000 level, she can cruise to victory for trainer Donald Barr, who wins at a 25% rate with horses descending multiple levels down the class ladder.

Good luck!