Keeler Johnson’s picks and plays of Oct. 9, 2023

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Monday, Oct. 9 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Santa Anita, along with tickets for the $3,129 Super High 5 carryover at Mountaineer.

Picks and Plays

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 4:03 p.m. ET)

#4 Secret Rendezvous (9-5) has finished second in all four of his starts over this class level. Three of those came on dirt, but Secret Rendezvous ran particularly well in his lone turf try, unleashing a big rally to finish second by a neck on July 13.

We’ll bank on Secret Rendezvous to post a breakthrough victory while returning to turf. #7 Hitchpin (6-1) and #6 Big Stormy (9-2), third and sixth on July 13, can round out the exacta and trifecta.

Selections

• #4 Secret Rendezvous (9-5)
• #7 Hitchpin (6-1)
• #6 Big Stormy (9-2)

Wagers

• $18 to win on #4 Secret Rendezvous
• $8 Exacta: 4 with 7
• $4 Trifecta: 4 with 7 with 6
  Total: $30

Santa Anita: Race 8: $80,000 Allowance Optional Claimer (6 1/2 furlongs, 7:30 p.m. ET)

#7 Mor Tequila (9-5) has shown impressive speed for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. On May 20, he wired a $62,500 maiden optional claimer for California-breds at Santa Anita, setting fractions of :21.85 and :44.71 on his way to victory by 4 3/4 lengths over next-out winner Big Hat Willie. Then on July 3, he tracked fractions of :21.18 and :43.90 in a 6 1/2-furlong $40,000 allowance optional claimer at Los Alamitos before taking over to win by four lengths.

Drawing the outside post position in a seven-horse field affords Mor Tequila options for setting or tracking the pace as needed while returning to Santa Anita. Let’s bet him over the graded stakes-placed #2 Desmond Doss (5-2) in the exacta and single him to start a double wager.

Selections

• #7 Mor Tequila (9-5)
• #2 Desmond Doss (5-2)
• #6 Lovesick Blues (5-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 7 with 2
• $15 Double: 7 with 7
  Total: $30

Santa Anita: Race 9: Swingtime S. (one mile on turf, 8:00 p.m. ET)

#7 Hamwood Flier (3-1) led by daylight at every call of this race in 2022, ultimately winning by 2 1/4 lengths. She wrapped up 2022 with a gallant try against tougher competition in the Matriarch (G1), leading by as many as eight lengths before weakening in the final furlong to finish fourth, beaten a nose and a head for second place.

Hamwood Flier hasn’t run since last December, but trainer Phil D’Amato wins at a 21% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more, so the time off shouldn’t be a big concern. We’ll bet Hamwood Flier to win and single her to conclude our double wager.

Selections

• #7 Hamwood Flier (3-1)
• #10 Oakhurst (4-1)
• #1 Eddie’s New Dream (4-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #7 Hamwood Flier

Carryover Watch

Mountaineer: Race 8: $3,129 Super High 5 carryover (9:55 p.m. ET)

If you can successfully select the top five finishers, in order, from among the eight horses entered in Monday’s eighth race at Mountaineer, you’ll win a share of a $3,129 Super High 5 carryover.

The eighth race is a $4,000 claimer for fillies and mares who haven’t won three races in the last year. The distance is 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt (a reasonably common configuration at Mountaineer), and there are only 6,720 possible Super High 5 outcomes, so this isn’t the most challenging race to handicap on paper.

Pacesetters have won 45% of 5 1/2-furlong dirt sprints at Mountaineer this meet, which bodes well for morning line favorite #4 Shelley’s Gem (5-2). The speedy six-year-old has set, pressed, or tracked the pace in each of her last six starts. Last time out, she dueled for command in a $6,500 claimer sprinting six furlongs at Mountaineer to win by a head. Dropping in class should make Shelley’s Gem tough to catch under hot apprentice jockey Mauro Cedillo, a 20% winner at Mountaineer this meet who rides with a five-pound weight allowance.

#6 Wedding Chapel (4-1) is another logical contender. Last time out, she rallied after a slow start to finish third in a $4,000 claimer at Mountaineer behind #7 Giro Kate (7-2) and #2 High Heaven (6-1). Prior to that troubled run, Wedding Chapel wired a $4,000 claimer dashing 5 1/2 furlongs at Mountaineer by 4 1/4 lengths. And four starts back, she led by daylight at every call of a six-furlong $4,000 claimer at Mountaineer to dominate by 8 1/2 lengths.

Let’s build our tickets around Shelley’s Gem and Wedding Chapel, counting on one to win and the other to finish in the top three. If we then rely on Giro Kate (a consistent $4,000 and $6,500 claiming competitor) to finish in the top three, we can spread deeper for the remaining slots.

• $1 Super High 5: 4,6 with 4,6 with 7 with 1,2,5 with 1,2,5,8 ($18)
• $1 Super High 5: 4,6 with 7 with 4,6 with 1,2,5 with 1,2,5,8 ($18)
  Total: $36

Good luck!