Keeler Johnson’s picks and plays of Sept. 20

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, Sept. 20 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Churchill Downs, along with a horse to single in a pair of Pick 5 carryovers at Delaware Park.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Hoosier Park $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any eligible race at Hoosier Park.
• Hong Kong $50 Bonus: Receive a $50 bonus when you wager at least $500 in cumulative bets at Sha Tin (HK) and Happy Valley (HK) during six days of racing in September.
• Churchill Downs $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in select races at Churchill Downs.

Picks and Plays

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (7 1/2 furlongs on turf, 4:03 p.m. ET)

#6 By Heart (5-1) is an interesting contender in this turf test for juveniles. The daughter of Frosted was produced by the Mr. Prospector mare Love Style, the dam of four stakes winners, including Florida Derby (G1) hero and acclaimed sire Scat Daddy.

Trainer Brendan Walsh has gone 9-for-39 (23%) at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet, and since 2020 he’s compiled a 3-for-12 (25%) record debuting juveniles over this turf course. By Heart’s work tab is respectable, so let’s take a shot betting her to win and keying her over #5 Isle of Hope (9-2) and #10 Clearly Copper (3-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #6 By Heart (5-1)
• #5 Isle of Hope (9-2)
• #10 Clearly Copper (3-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 By Heart
• $5 Exacta: 6 with 5,10 ($10)
  Total: $30

Churchill Downs: Race 8: $125,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (six furlongs, 4:22 p.m. ET)

#8 Giant Mischief (5-2) is 2-for-2 sprinting and 0-for-2 running long. As a juvenile in 2022, he showed plenty of promise when beating future Grade 1 winner Arabian Lion in a fast $100,000 allowance optional claimer sprinting seven furlongs at Keeneland.

Giant Mischief has been freshened since fading to finish sixth in the Feb. 25 Rebel (G2) on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. Dropping down in class and distance can send Giant Mischief back to the winner’s circle for the hot jockey/trainer duo of Tyler Gaffalione and Brad Cox.

Taking advantage of the Churchill Downs $10 Money Back promotion, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Giant Mischief. Then we’ll bet Giant Mischief on top of an exacta using his undefeated stablemate #2 Elite Forces (5-1) and Ellis Park $100,000 allowance optional claiming winner #3 Blue Light (4-1) for second place.

Selections

• #8 Giant Mischief (5-2)
• #2 Elite Forces (5-1)
• #3 Blue Light (4-1)

Wagers

• $10 to win on #8 Giant Mischief
• $10 Exacta: 8 with 2,3 ($20)
  Total: $30

Churchill Downs: Race 9: Maiden Special Weight (one mile, 4:55 p.m. ET)

#8 Rock Star Doctor (12-1) didn’t show much in her debut racing 1 1/16 miles over the Ellis Park turf course, racing toward the back of the pack throughout to finish 10th. But a slow early pace compromised her chances, and the caliber of competition may have been above average—the victorious Austere came right back to win the Juvenile Fillies S. at Kentucky Downs.

As a daughter of Cigar Mile H. (G1) winner Connect, out of a mare by Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Street Sense, Rock Star Doctor has the pedigree to improve while switching form turf to dirt. Throw in the fact trainer Eddie Kenneally wins at a 40% rate with horses running long for the second time, and Rock Star Doctor is worth betting to win at her enticing 12-1 morning line odds.

#12 Shimmering Allure (5-2) and #5 Up On the Edge (7-2) can battle to complete the exacta.

Selections

• #8 Rock Star Doctor (12-1)
• #12 Shimmering Allure (5-2)
• #5 Up On the Edge (7-2)

Wagers

• $12 to win on #8 Rock Star Doctor
• $4 Exacta: 8 with 5,12 ($8)
  Total: $20

A seven-year-old gelding who has only run six times in his career, Princely God has made four starts at Delaware Park this season with decent results. In his return from a three-year layoff, Princely God wired a $6,250 maiden claimer by 5 1/2 lengths. Then, following pacesetting defeats in an $8,000 starter allowance and a $16,000 claimer, Princely God dropped in class for a $6,250 claimer sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs and led by daylight at every call to crush the competition by 9 1/4 lengths.

That runaway victory produced a career-best 89 Brisnet Speed rating, by far the highest number belonging to any horse in Wednesday’s field. None of the other entrants have posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 82. So, if Princely God repeats that figure while sticking to the $6,250 level, he’ll be tough to catch. The fact he’s shaping up as the only definite speed horse in a largely paceless field adds to the appeal, since there’s a chance Princely God will shake loose on an uncontested lead under apprentice jockey Jeremy Alicea, who rides with a seven-pound weight allowance.

For all these reasons, we’ll make Princely God a single in both Pick 5 wagers. And by the way, that reduces the number of possible outcomes to consider down to 3,696 in the Early Pick 5 and 4,800 in the Late Pick 5.

Good luck!