Keeler Johnson’s picks and plays of Sept. 28, 2023

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Thursday, Sept. 28 at Churchill Downs and Charles Town, including horses to play in carryovers at Churchill and Horseshoe Indianapolis.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Hoosier Park $1,000 Pick 4 Hit It & Split It: Hit the late Pick 4 on Thursdays at Hoosier Park to win your share of a $1,000 weekly jackpot.
• Churchill Downs $2,000 Thursday Leaderboard: Place $10+ win bets on Thursday at Churchill Downs to compete for your share of a $2,000 jackpot.
• Churchill Downs $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in select races at Churchill Downs.

Picks and Plays

Churchill Downs: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (1 3/16 miles, 6:56 p.m. ET)

#6 Rivalry (8-5) has finished third in his first two starts against maiden special weight company at Ellis Park. He had a troubled trip when beaten less than one length in his debut sprinting seven furlongs, then employed pace-tracking tactics to round out the trifecta in a one-mile contest.

As a son of Uncle Mo out of a Tapit mare, Rivalry is bred to shine while stretching out over 1 3/16 miles. Drawing wide in a small field should set the stage for a perfect trip, and it’s worth noting trainer Brad Cox wins at a 30% rate with horses running long for the second time.

#1 Mount Craig (9-5), a trifecta finisher in seven of his nine starts, can complete a cold exacta.

Selections

• #6 Rivalry (8-5)
• #1 Mount Craig (9-5)
• #4 Harbour Bridge (4-1)

Wagers

• $25 Exacta: 6 with 1

Charles Town: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (4 1/2 furlongs, 7:00 p.m. ET)

Since 2021, trainer Jeff Runco has compiled a sharp 32-7-7-10 record debuting juveniles at Charles Town. That works out to a 22% win rate and 75% in-the-money rate, which is why we’ll support Runco’s unraced #1 Ragazza Mia (3-1) in this maiden dash for two-year-old fillies.

Ragazza Mia will be guided by hot apprentice jockey Axel Concepcion, a 26% winner at Charles Town this meet. Concepcion rides with a five-pound weight allowance, so if Ragazza Mia breaks sharply from the rail draw, she may prove impossible to catch.

#6 Honkey Tonk Time (6-5), exiting a $50,000 maiden claimer at Ellis Park, can complete the exacta.

Selections

• #1 Ragazza Mia (3-1)
• #6 Honkey Tonk Time (6-5)
• #4 Honey Please (9-2)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 1 with 6

Charles Town: Race 8: $7,500 Maiden Claiming (4 1/2 furlongs, 10:17 p.m. ET)

Pacesetters have won 54% of 4 1/2-furlong sprints at Charles Town this meet, which bodes well for #7 J. Wick (2-1). The speedy three-year-old gelding has set or pressed the pace in each of his last three starts, including when second by a neck over this track, distance, and class level on June 23.

J. Wick owns two of the highest Brisnet Speed ratings in Thursday’s field and should be tough to beat if he brings his A-game. Throw in the fact he’ll be ridden by the previously mentioned hot apprentice jockey Axel Concepcion (a 38% winner teaming up with trainer Ronney Brown over the last two months), and J. Wick is a compelling choice to take home top honors.

#3 Magical Surprise (7-2) and #1 Boo Too (6-1) can battle for a spot in the exacta. 

Selections

• #7 J. Wick (2-1)
• #3 Magical Surprise (7-2)
• #1 Boo Too (6-1)

Wagers

• $18 to win on #7 J. Wick
• $6 Exacta: 7 with 1,3 ($12)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 1: $31,661 Pick 5 carryover (2:10 p.m. ET)

You definitely want to play the Early Pick 5 on Thursday at Horseshoe Indianapolis. The 50-cent wager features a non-jackpot carryover worth $31,661.

The sequence gets underway right off the bat in Race 1, a $15,000 maiden claimer for two-year-old fillies sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt. #1 Fessy (9-5) is the morning line favorite while dropping in class for high-percentage trainer Brad Cox, but she didn’t show any speed when finishing fifth on debut in a slow-paced $30,000 maiden claimer on turf at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Will she get run off her feet while cutting back sharply in distance for a dirt sprint?

#7 Poised Princess (8-1) is a live longshot worth supporting. She’s trained by Brian Lynch, a 29% winner at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet who wins at a 40% rate with horses debuting in maiden claimers. Poised Princess has shown speed in morning workouts and is catching a field that doesn’t look especially deep on paper, so she has every chance to snatch first prize and start the Pick 5 on a lucrative note.

Churchill Downs: Race 1: $1,921 Super High 5 carryover (5:00 p.m. ET)

The opening race on Thursday at Churchill Downs brings a $1,921 non-jackpot carryover in the $1 Super High 5.

Race 1 is a $16,000 maiden claimer for fillies and mares racing 1 1/16 miles on dirt, and with seven horses in the entries there are only 2,520 possible outcomes to analyze. Playing competitive tickets should be within reach even for bettors with modest budgets.

#7 Salsalita Verde (9-5) is a logical favorite. She struggled when finishing midfield in a one-mile maiden special weight at Ellis Park last time out, but two starts back she rallied to finish second by a neck in a $20,000 maiden claimer racing 1 1/8 miles at Ellis.

Dropping in class for a $16,000 maiden claimer racing two turns should make Salsalita Verde tough to beat for trainer Tom Amoss, a 20% winner at Churchill Downs this meet. We recommend keying Salsalita Verde on top in the Super High 5.

Good luck!