Keeler Johnson’s picks and plays of Sept. 29, 2023

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, Sept. 29 at Aqueduct, Churchill Downs, and Santa Anita, including a win bet capitalizing on the Churchill Downs $10 Money Back promotion.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Churchill Downs $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in select races at Churchill Downs.
• $2,000 Everest Carnival Leaderboard: Place $10+ win bets at Randwick (AUS) on Friday to compete for your share of $2,000 in prizes.

Picks and Plays

Aqueduct: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (one mile, 3:36 p.m. ET)

#10 Drum Roll Please (5-2) exits a runner-up finish in a one-mile maiden special weight on Sept. 1 at Saratoga. Although he was beaten 7 1/2 lengths, the winning time was fast, and Drum Roll Please earned a flashy 96 Brisnet Speed rating while pulling 13 lengths clear of the third-place finisher.

If Drum Roll Please repeats or improves upon that performance at Aqueduct, he can win for fun. A $25 win bet is in order, along with a small exacta using longshot #2 Golden Plate (12-1) for second place. Golden Plate finished well behind Drum Roll Please when finishing fifth on Sept. 1, but ran into trouble that day and is eligible to improve while adding blinkers for his second start.

Selections

• #10 Drum Roll Please (5-2)
• #2 Golden Plate (12-1)
• #4 Hunt Ball (7-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #10 Drum Roll Please
• $5 Exacta: 10 with 2
  Total: $30

Churchill Downs: Race 9: $80,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (6 1/2 furlongs, 4:55 p.m. ET)

#1 Angkor (7-2) was much the best in a 6 1/2-furlong allowance at Ellis Park last time out, dueling for the lead before pulling away to win by 5 1/2 lengths with a career-best 96 Brisnet Speed rating. He also ran well in a 6 1/2-furlong allowance at Churchill Downs two starts back, finishing third behind future Pennsylvania Derby (G1) winner Saudi Crown.

Trainer Philip Bauer has been red-hot at Churchill Downs this meet, going 4-for-9 (44%), and Angkor enters off sharp workouts over the Churchill main track. Angkor does have a tendency to settle for minor awards more often than not, but that’s okay—thanks to the Churchill Downs $10 Money Back promotion, we can place a $10 win bet on Angkor and receive a refund if he finishes second or third.

Actually, we’re confident enough in Angkor to make our win bet a $20 variety.

Selections

• #1 Angkor (7-2)
• #8 Sky and Sand (5-1)
• #3 Under Oath (4-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 Angkor (7-2)

Santa Anita: Race 8: Chillingworth (G3) (6 1/2 furlongs, 7:36 p.m. ET)

#5 Eda (4-5) has won seven straight races, including six stakes, but she’s worked hard for many of those wins and may prove vulnerable against a talented up-and-comer like #1 Clearly Unhinged (4-1).

Clearly Unhinged is a head away from being undefeated in three sprint starts. She ran particularly well in the seven-furlong Test (G1) at Saratoga last time out, finishing second by a head against Kentucky Oaks (G1) and Acorn (G1) winner Pretty Mischievous.

That effort yielded a 99 Brisnet Speed rating, not far off Eda’s career-best 103. She’ll carry eight fewer pounds than Eda in the Chillingworth, so any improvement off the Test should place Clearly Unhinged in the hunt for a 4-1 upset.

We’ll play the race accordingly with a win bet and a cold exacta.

Selections

• #1 Clearly Unhinged (4-1)
• #5 Eda (4-5)
• #4 Elm Drive (3-1)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #1 Clearly Unhinged (4-1)
• $15 Exacta: 1 with 5
  Total: $30

Good luck!