Keeler Johnson’s picks and plays Sept. 25

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Monday, Sept. 25 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Presque Isle Downs, along with tickets for the $1,722 Super High 5 carryover at Golden Gate Fields.

Picks and Plays

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 1: $25,000 Maiden Claiming (five furlongs, 2:30 p.m. ET)

#7 Princess Mitole (7-2) showed speed in each of her last two starts on turf before fading to finish off the board. But three starts back, she dueled for the lead in a five-furlong maiden special weight at Horseshoe Indianapolis and stayed on to finish third behind next-out stakes winner Tx Women for Arts.

Pacesetters have won 58% of five-furlong dirt sprints at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet, so returning to dirt and dropping down the class ladder can send Princess Mitole to the winner’s circle. We’ll bet her to win and play her over morning line favorite #1 Runtolive (7-5) in a cold exacta.

Selections

• #7 Princess Mitole (7-2)
• #1 Runtolive (7-5)
• #8 C C Grand (6-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #7 Princess Mitole (7-2)
• $10 Exacta: 7 with 1
  Total: $30

Presque Isle Downs: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on Tapeta, 3:54 p.m. ET)

#7 Bloodhound (7-2) ran well in his debut sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs over this track and class level, carving out the pace before staying on to finish third behind Vote No, who returned to win the Juvenile Sprint S. at Kentucky Downs.

A subsequent try on turf at Colonial Downs saw Bloodhound race in midfield on his way to fourth place. Returning to Tapeta at Presque Isle ought to trigger a more competitive showing under hot jockey Antonio Gallardo, a 21% winner at Presque Isle this meet. It helps that trainer Ron Potts is a 29% winner with horses switching from turf to synthetic.

#5 Red Wren (5-2), who finished half a length ahead of Bloodhound in their mutual debut, can battle with first-time starter #4 Fire Wire (4-1) for a spot in the exacta.

Selections

• #7 Bloodhound (7-2)
• #5 Red Wren (5-2)
• #4 Fire Wire (4-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #7 Bloodhound
• $5 Exacta: 7 with 4,5 ($10)
  Total: $30

Presque Isle Downs: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on turf, 5:36 p.m. ET)

#7 Code Omaha (7-2) is a son of first-crop sire Omaha Beach, who is siring a sharp 19% winners from first-time turf starters. Sold for $550,000 earlier this year, Code Omaha is conditioned by red-hot trainer Jonathan Thomas, a 35% winner at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet.

Thomas has debuted three juveniles over the Horseshoe Indianapolis turf course this year, and while none have visited the winner’s circle, all three have finished in the money. Perhaps Code Omaha can go one better and deliver victory over #4 Silent Heart (4-1) and #3 Izzit Midnight (6-1)

Selections

• #7 Code Omaha (7-2)
• #4 Silent Heart (4-1)
• #3 Izzit Midnight (6-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #7 Code Omaha
• $5 Exacta: 7 with 3,4 ($10)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Golden Gate Fields: Race 4: $1,722 Super High 5 carryover (6:16 p.m. ET)

The Monday card at Golden Gate Fields brings a $1,722 carryover in the $1 Super High 5. Mathematically speaking, winning a share should be easy. But in actuality, it’s a tricky wager.

The carryover is up for grabs in Race 4, a $12,500 maiden claimer for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs on Tapeta. With seven entries, there are only 2,520 possible Super High 5 outcomes, a manageable number compared to the 95,040 offered by a 12-horse field.

But it’s difficult to narrow down those 2,520 possibilities. The race has drawn an eclectic field. Three of the entrants are dropping in class, another is jumping up in class, three are switching from turf to Tapeta, and two have never run at all. Deciding which runners to use, and to what degree, is a challenging task.

We’re going to throw our support behind #1 Just Serene (8-1), a first-time starter from the hot barn of Jack Steiner. Some bettors might be scared off by the fact Steiner has won with only 7% of his debuting runners over the past few years, but that stat is a bit misleading. Steiner did have a cold streak with first-time starters, going 0-for-23 between 2020 and 2022. But Steiner has turned things around in 2023; at Golden Gate Fields this year, Steiner has gone 2-for-5 (40%) with debuting runners.

Just Serene has been training like clockwork since early July and is slated to be ridden by hot jockey William Antongeorgi III, a 26% winner at Golden Gate this meet. Just Serene looks ready to outrun her 8-1 morning line odds, so we’ll take a shot keying her on top in the Super High 5.

Who are the other key contenders? #2 Soo Brooklyn (3-1) finished second in a $25,000 maiden claimer at Golden Gate three starts back and has the Brisnet Speed ratings to challenge for top honors while dropping in class. #7 Zoe’s Pride (8-5) is also fast enough to factor while descending the class ladder for red-hot trainer Tim McCanna, a 39% winner at Golden Gate this meet. And we can’t underestimate first-time starter #6 Mystic Encounter (8-1), whose trainer—Steve Sherman—has gone 2-for-7 (29%) with horses debuting in sprints at Golden Gate this year.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

• $1 Super High 5: 1 with 2 with 6,7 with 4,5,6,7 with 3,4,5,6,7 ($18)
• $1 Super High 5: 1 with 6,7 with 2 with 4,5,6,7 with 3,4,5,6,7 ($18)
  Total: $36

Good luck!