Keeler Johnson's picks and plays April 13

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Thursday, April 13 at Gulfstream Park and Keeneland, along with a horse to single in the $66,705 Pick 6 carryover at Aqueduct.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Hoosier Park $1,000 Pick 4 Hit It & Split It: Hit the late Pick 4 on Thursdays at Hoosier Park to win your share of a $1,000 weekly jackpot.
• Keeneland Daily Double Down: Receive a 50% bonus on all winning double wagers at Keeneland on Wednesdays and Thursdays (also Friday, April 28).

Picks and Plays

Gulfstream Park: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (4 1/2 furlongs, 12:40 p.m. ET)

#4 Cherokee (4-1) has been training well in preparation for her debut. On April 2, she clocked five furlongs from the Gulfstream Park starting gate in a bullet :35 3/5.

Here’s an applicable stat: since 2019, trainer Juan Alvarado has compiled a 21-2-3-3 record debuting juveniles during the first five months of the year. That’s a 10% win rate and a 38% in-the-money rate, both respectable percentages.

We’ll bet Cherokee to win and call it a day.

Selections

• #2 Cherokee (4-1)
• #9 Mist (7-2)
• #8 Sun Azteca (5-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #2 Cherokee

Keeneland: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (4 1/2 furlongs, 1:32 p.m. ET)

#1 Hob Alwatan (8-5) has put together a flashy work tab in preparation for his debut. Three of his seven workouts have been bullet exercises, including a snappy three furlongs from the Keeneland starting gate in :35 3/5 on March 26.

Trainer Wesley Ward tends to excel in early-season juvenile sprints at Keeneland, and his overall 29% win rate with first-time starters is excellent. We’ll try keying Hob Alwatan over #2 Baytown Parfait (12-1) and #12 Ore Mine (10-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #1 Hob Alwatan (8-5)
• #2 Baytown Parfait (12-1)
• #12 Ore Mine (10-1)

Wagers

• $10 Exacta: 1 with 2,12 ($20)

Keeneland: Race 8: Allowance (1 1/16 miles on turf, 4:44 p.m. ET)

#1 Verbal (5-2) won the Cecil B. DeMille (G3) as a juvenile, showcasing fine form against graded stakes competition. But he only ran once in 2022, finishing fifth in the Transylvania (G3) at Keeneland before heading to the sidelines.

Verbal kicked off 2023 with a rallying fourth-place finish in the Tampa Bay (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs, beaten only 2 1/4 lengths while earning a career-best 93 Brisnet Speed rating. Trainer Chad Brown has won at a 24% rate over the Keeneland turf course since 2018, so Verbal is a logical choice to win his second start back under four-time champion jockey Irad Ortiz Jr.

A win bet on Verbal will be our primary play, but we’ll also key him over #7 Strong Quality (9-2) and #5 Script (6-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #1 Verbal (5-2)
• #7 Strong Quality (9-2)
• #5 Script (6-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 Verbal
• $5 Exacta: 1 with 5,7 ($10)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Aqueduct: Race 3: $66,705 Pick 6 carryover (2:24 p.m. ET)

If you feel like chasing a non-jackpot Pick 6 carryover worth well into five figures, you’ll be excited to hear that the Thursday card at Aqueduct features a $66,705 prize pool in the $1 Pick 6.

A challenging series is on tap. Aside from Race 3, which drew seven entries, all of the races feature eight or more horses. All told, there are 61 horses entered across the Pick 6, averaging nearly 10.2 per race and equating to 887,040 possible outcomes. Definitely not a Pick 6 to tackle on a whim.

Fortunately, seven of those horses are main-track-only entrants who seem destined to scratch given the lack of rain in the forecast for Aqueduct. That cuts the number of Pick 6 possibilities down to 483,840. There are also two sets of coupled entries in the mix, which drops the number of possible betting outcomes down to 399,168.

And from there, we can slice the possibilities down to “only” 33,264 if we’re willing to single #3 Nothing Better (7-2) in Race 8, the final leg of the Pick 6. Race 8 is an $80,000 allowance optional claimer for older horses sprinting six furlongs on turf, and those conditions sound perfect for Nothing Better.

Let’s face it—Nothing Better is a picture of consistency. He hasn’t missed the trifecta in his last 10 starts, a streak that includes six victories. He was particularly sharp in the six-furlong Aqueduct Turf Sprint Championship S. over this course and distance two starts back, leading all the way to win by half a length with a 98 Brisnet Speed rating.

Nothing Better has actually posted three consecutive 98 Brisnet Speed ratings, a significant achievement considering none of the horses in Thursday’s field have earned a number higher than 99. The fact Nothing Better hasn’t run since December is a question mark, but trainer Jorge Duarte Jr. wins at a solid 19% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more, higher than his 12% overall win rate since 2022.

Throw in the fact Nothing Better enters off three consecutive bullet workouts, and the six-year-old gelding looms as a logical Pick 6 single under hot jockey Manny Franco, a 25% winner at Aqueduct since the start of the year.

Good luck!