Keeler Johnson's picks and plays April 28
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Thursday, April 28 at Keeneland and Lone Star Park, including a quartet of exacta tickets.
Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:
- Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Lone Star Park.
- Scandinavian Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Bro Park (SWE), Solvalla (SWE), or Jagersro (SWE).
- $15,000 Place Jackpot at Keeneland: Place at least six winning $10+ place bets at Keeneland to win your share of a daily $1,000 jackpot.
Picks and Plays
Keeneland: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (4 1/2 furlongs, 1:00 p.m. ET)
There’s a lot to like about #4 The Big Wam (7-2) in this maiden dash for juveniles. Trainer Luis Mendez has gone 1-for-4 (25%) debuting two-year-olds at Keeneland this spring, and The Big Wam is a son of Mr. Big, who sires an excellent 14% winners from first-time starters.
Can a horse's sire indicate which race conditions he or she will relish?@J_Keelerman certainly thinks so!
— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) September 29, 2021
He explains 👇 https://t.co/6F0AeqAzs6
The Big Wam has been cranking out quick workouts at Keeneland, including a half-mile from the starting gate in :47 2/5 and a bullet three furlongs from the gate in :34 3/5. All signs suggest The Big Wam has a legitimate chance to upset morning line favorites #5 Ashcroft (5-2) and #7 No Nay Hudson (9-5).
- $20 to win on #4 The Big Wam
- $5 Exacta: 4 with 5,7 ($10)
Total: $30
Keeneland: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 1:32 p.m. ET)
#10 Wico (5-2) brings a promising profile to the table for hot trainer Wesley Ward, who wins at a 29% rate with first-time starters. Sire No Nay Never won his two-year-old debut during the spring at Keeneland before going on to win at the Grade 1 level, while dam Mundus Novus has already foaled a pair of turf stakes winners, including an early-maturing juvenile.
Wico sold for $440,000 as a yearling and has shown speed in the mornings, most notably breezing a bullet three furlongs from the Keeneland starting gate in :35 3/5. Three-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz has won at a 31% rate when teaming up with Ward over the last two months, so let’s bet Wico to win and key him over stablemate #11 Uncle Headley (4-1) in the exacta.
- $20 to win on #10 Wico
- $5 Exacta: 10 with 11
Total: $25
Lone Star Park: Race 1: Bluebonnet S. (6 1/2 furlongs, 7:35 p.m. ET)
#4 Shes Our Fastest (12-1) hasn’t been in the strongest form lately, but perhaps returning to Lone Star Park can trigger a turnaround. She boasts a flashy 7-4-2-0 record over the Lone Star main track, highlighted by an eight-length romp in the 2021 Bluebonnet.
While horses are the most important factor in handicapping any race, many bettors look toward jockey statistics to strengthen their opinions and separate top contenders.@J_Keelerman helps you understand rider stats 👇 https://t.co/asGyQ1e0YO
— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) October 20, 2021
Thanks to the Midweek Bet Back promotion, we can place a $10 win bet on Shes Our Fastest and receive a refund if she settles for second place. We’ll also play her in the exacta with logical favorites #6 Lady Ave (2-1) and #7 Ima Discreet Lady (9-5).
- $10 to win on #4 Shes Our Fastest
- $2 Exacta: 4 with 6,7 ($4)
- $3 Exacta: 6,7 with 4 ($6)
Total: $20
Good luck!
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