Keeler Johnson's picks and plays April 6

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, April 6 at Tampa Bay Downs and Will Rogers Downs, including a trio of exactas.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Parx Racing.
• Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Happy Valley (Hong Kong).
• Scandinavian Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Arjang (SWE), Solvalla (SWE), or Bjerke (SWE).

Picks and Plays

Will Rogers Downs: Race 1: $7,500 Maiden Claiming (one mile, 2:00 p.m. ET)

#5 It’s Inevitable (2-1) didn’t fire her strongest shot in a $15,000 maiden claimer on March 21 at Will Rogers Downs, finishing sixth after pressing the early pace. But that effort came against tougher company, and It’s Inevitable was returning from a winter layoff.

It’s Inevitable showed much stronger form in a $7,500 maiden claimer racing one mile at Remington Park last December, rallying to finish second with a solid 60 Brisnet Speed rating. Returning to those conditions at Will Rogers Downs can carry It’s Inevitable to a mild upset victory over #1 Strong Woman (9-5) and #2 Honor Graduate (4-1)

• $20 to win on #5 It’s Inevitable
• $5 Exacta: 5 with 1,2 ($10)
  Total: $30

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 5: $10,000 Starter Allowance (one mile and 40 yards, 2:29 p.m. ET)

#3 Mystery Man (8-1) put together a solid string of 80+ Brisnet Speed ratings while sprinting at Tampa Bay Downs during the winter. On March 11, he put up an 86 when finishing second in a $16,000 allowance optional claimer.

Who’s to say Mystery Man won’t produce a similar effort while stretching out over one mile and 40 yards? He’s won running long in the past, and it’s possible he’ll move forward in his first start for trainer Jon Arnett, who strikes at a 23% rate with new claiming acquisitions. Throw in jockey Ademar Santos (a 20% winner at Tampa Bay Downs this meet), and Mystery Man offers a lot of appeal at 8-1.

In addition to a win bet on Mystery Man, we’ll play him over #1 Roaring River (3-1) and #4 Indian Buzz (4-1) in the exacta.

• $20 to win on #3 Mystery Man
• $5 Exacta: 3 with 1,4 ($10)
  Total: $30

Will Rogers Downs: Race 5: $7,500 Maiden Claiming (five furlongs, 3:56 p.m. ET)

#3 She’s So Smarty (4-1) didn’t run badly in a $15,000 maiden claimer over this track and distance on March 29. In her first start off a four-month break, She’s So Smarty stayed within a couple lengths of the early tempo before weakening to finish fourth.

The 56 Brisnet Speed rating She’s So Smarty posted looks thoroughly competitive against Wednesday’s field, and trainer Jody Pruitt wins at a 20% rate with horses running back for the second time following a layoff. She’s So Smarty looms as a viable candidate to outrun #4 Twice as Good (6-1) and #6 Hollysroyaldefense (3-1) in the dash to the finish line.

• $20 to win on #3 She’s So Smarty
• $5 Exacta: 3 with 4,6 ($10)
  Total: $30

Good luck!