Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Aug. 24

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, Aug. 24 at Colonial Downs, Delaware Park, and Presque Isle Downs, along with horses to single in the $4,147 Pick 5 carryover at Penn National.

Picks and Plays

Presque Isle Downs: Race 3: Allowance (one mile on Tapeta, 2:24 p.m. ET)

#6 One More Kelly (2-1) won a maiden special weight for fillies and mares at Presque Isle earlier this summer, then placed in a pair of allowances for Pennsylvania-bred fillies and mares over the same track. She was particularly impressive in a July 28 heat, rallying from the middle of a small field to finish second by half a length.

That effort produced a career-best 77 Brisnet Speed rating, stamping One More Kelly as a major win contender while sticking to the same class level for hot trainer Tim Girten, who wins at a 30% rate in allowances.

New York raider #1 Miss Invincible (6-1) can battle with recent Presque Isle maiden winner #3 Heavenly Praise (9-5) to complete the exacta.

• $10 Exacta: 6 with 1,3 ($20)

Delaware Park: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (one mile and 70 yards on turf, 2:30 p.m. ET)

#8 Ever Summer (5-2) finished fourth and fifth in a pair of maiden special weights on the New York circuit last fall. The daughter of Summer Front has been freshened since then and is adding Lasix for her three-year-old debut.

Ever Summer may find the competition a bit easier at Delaware Park than in New York, and hot trainer Christophe Clement (a 43% winner at Delaware this year) strikes at a solid 19% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more.

We’ll add #3 Midnight Choir (4-1) and #7 Determined Charm (8-1) to the exacta.

• $20 to win on #8 Ever Summer
• $5 Exacta: 8 with 3,7 ($10)
  Total: $30

Colonial Downs: Race 5: $10,000 Claiming (one mile on turf, 3:37 p.m. ET)

#10 Stimulus Maker (7-2) broke his maiden in a $30,000 maiden claimer racing one mile over the Laurel Park turf course, then ran sixth in a $40,000 claimer over the same course and distance. Along the way, the four-year-old gelding posted respectable Brisnet Speed ratings of 79 and 70.

Stimulus Maker is dropping down multiple class levels at Colonial Downs, a winning move 32% of the time for trainer Hugh McMahon. Throw in the fact apprentice jockey William Humphrey rides with a seven-pound weight allowance, and Stimulus Maker has a shot to upset recent Colonial Downs maiden winner #7 Spotted Cat (2-1).

• $20 to win on #10 Stimulus Maker
• $10 Exacta: 10 with 7
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Penn National, Race 4: $4,147 Pick 5 carryover (7:22 p.m. ET)

Fans of non-jackpot carryovers will be glad to hear there’s a $4,147 prize pool to chase on Wednesday at Penn National.

Unlike most Pick 5 wagers, the Penn National Pick 5 carries a pricey $1 minimum bet amount, so finding a single (or two) is a good strategy for keeping ticket costs down.

After analyzing the entries, we’ve identified a pair of possible singles to bookend the sequence:

Race 4: $6,250 Claiming (one mile): #4 Barista Vixen (2-1)

Barista Vixen may have misfired in a recent seven-furlong allowance at Charles Town, finishing sixth, but that bullring oval can be tricky for some horses to handle. Returning to a more typical racetrack configuration at Penn National can trigger a rebound from the five-year-old mare.

Two starts back, Barista Vixen was tons the best in a $15,000 claimer racing one mile and 70 yards at Parx Racing, tracking the early pace before pulling clear to win by 3 1/2 lengths. And prior to that, Barista Vixen cracked the trifecta in three straight $10,000 and $25,000 claimers at Aqueduct.

Barista Vixen will face easier competition on Wednesday while gaining the services of hot jockey Angel Rodriguez, a 20% winner at Penn National who has won at a 24% rate teaming up with trainer Brandon Kulp over the last 60 days. For all these reasons, Barista Vixen looks like the horse to beat in the Pick 5 opener.

Race 8: $16,000 Starter Optional Claiming (six furlongs)

#8 Unimpeachable (7-2) has cracked the trifecta in five of his six starts, including four straight $16,000 starter optional claimers at Parx Racing. His last two starts (both placed efforts in sprints) produced identical 93 Brisnet Speed ratings.

None of Unimpeachable’s rivals have earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 85, so Unimpeachable is clearly the fast horse in the field. For good measure, he has high-profile connections in his corner—trainer Kathleen Demasi (a 28% winner at Penn National) conditions the five-year-old gelding, and hot jockey Julio Hernandez (a 23% winner over this track) is named to ride.

If Unimpeachable brings his A-game, he can wrap up the Pick 5 as an appealing single.

Good luck!