Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Aug. 26

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, Aug. 26 at Saratoga and Charles Town, along with tickets for the $28,987 Super High 5 carryover at Del Mar.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Saratoga Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Saratoga.
• Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in eligible races at Tipperary (Ireland) or Rosehill (Australia).
• Exacta Insurance: Receive refunds on exacta bets (up to $10) if your two selected horses finish in the first three home (but not in the winning order) in select races at Ellis Park. Offer applies to straight exacta bets only.

Picks and Plays

Saratoga: Race 7: Funny Cide S. (6 1/2 furlongs, 4:29 p.m. ET)

#5 Andiamo a Firenze (4-5) was a dominant debut winner against New York-breds at Belmont Park, winning by four lengths with a 93 Brisnet Speed rating. Then Andiamo a Firenze squared off against unrestricted competition in the Sanford S. (G3) and finished a solid third after dueling near the front end for five out of six furlongs.

Andiamo a Firenze is returning to the New York-bred ranks for the Funny Cide and is clearly the fastest horse on paper. He posted an 88 Brisnet Speed rating in the Sanford, and none of his rivals have posted a figure higher than 81.

Let’s bet Andiamo a Firenze on top of impressive Saratoga debut winner #1 Acoustic Ave (5-2) in a cold exacta.

• $25 Exacta: 5 with 1

Saratoga: Race 9: $45,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (seven furlongs, 5:39 p.m. ET)

#3 Key Point (2-1) is a nose away from being undefeated in three starts for hot trainer Chad Brown. He dominated his debut at Saratoga last summer and was tons the best in a seven-furlong allowance at Belmont during the spring, romping home on top by 6 1/2 lengths.

Key Point’s allowance win generated a 103 Brisnet Speed rating, the only triple-digit figure owned by any of the horses in Friday’s field. A repeat can carry Key Point to victory over #4 Gandy Dancing (15-1), #7 Who Hoo Thats Me (5-1), and #10 Quickflash (15-1).

A $10 win bet capitalizing on the Saratoga Bet Back promotion will be our first order of business, followed by an exacta play.

• $10 to win on #3 Key Point
• $5 Exacta: 3 with 4,7,10 ($15)
  Total: $25

Charles Town: Race 6: Potomac S. (4 1/2 furlongs, 7:10 p.m. ET)

#2 Penguin Power (3-5) is the overwhelming morning line favorite after winning a 4 1/2-furlong allowance at Charles Town by 2 1/4 lengths over #5 Hypothesis (7-2). But two starts back, Penguin Power was beaten half a length by Hypothesis in the 4 1/2-furlong It’s Only Money S. at Charles Town, so it’s hardly a stretch to think Hypothesis can prevail on Friday at a much better price.

We’ll play the race accordingly, betting Hypothesis over Penguin Power and #3 Nico (6-1) in the exacta and trifecta.

• $15 Exacta: 5 with 2
• $5 Trifecta: 5 with 2 with 3
  Total: $20

Carryover Watch

Del Mar, Race 8: $28,987 Super High 5 carryover (9:33 p.m. ET)

Which horse will prevail when fillies and mares square off over one mile on turf in Del Mar’s eighth race on Friday, a $50,000 maiden claimer? Your guess is as good as ours, but guessing the outcome is the key to earning a share of Friday’s $28,987 Super High 5 carryover at Del Mar.

Deciphering the entries isn’t easy. The field contains 11 horses in the main body of the field plus two also-eligible entrants, which means in all likelihood we’re looking at 55,440 possible outcomes after scratches. That’s a lot of options.

In order to keep ticket costs down, we’ll try keying morning line favorite #4 Lookintogeteven (7-2) on top of our tickets. The five-year-old mare has placed multiple times against maiden special weight company running long on turf, and she recently finished third in a $62,500 maiden claimer at Del Mar, beaten only 3 1/2 lengths after leading past the eighth pole. Dropping down to the $50,000 level should make Lookintogeteven dangerous for the hot jockey/trainer duo of Umberto Rispoli and Phil D’Amato.

Underneath, #1 Dear Beau (6-1) and #2 In Your Face (6-1) warrant plenty of respect. Dear Beau finished just a neck behind Lookintogeteven when fourth in the above-mentioned $62,500 maiden claimer, and In Your Face finished seventh in that same heat after previously running second (beaten a head) in a $50,000 maiden claimer at Santa Anita.

#3 Above Suspicion (5-1), #7 Peanut Butter Cup (6-1), and #8 A Good Law (4-1) can’t be dismissed either. All three are dropping in class out of maiden special weights, and all three are making the sprint-to-route transition, giving them upside for improvement.

We’ll round out our tickets with #9 Naughty Nadine (12-1) and #11 The Ginger Queen (12-1), who finished eighth and sixth in the previously mentioned $62,500 maiden claimer. Naughty Nadine was making her U.S. debut after competing with consistency in England, while The Ginger Queen has already placed in a couple of $50,000 maiden claimers on the California circuit.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

• 50-cent Super High 5: 4 with 1 with 2,3,7,8 with 2,3,7,8 with 2,3,7,8,9,11 ($24)
• 50-cent Super High 5: 4 with 2,3,7,8 with 1 with 2,3,7,8 with 2,3,7,8,9,11 ($24)
  Total: $48

Good luck!