Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Dec. 12

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Monday, Dec. 12, at Mahoning Valley and Zia Park, along with horses to support in the $4,750 Pick 5 carryover at Turf Paradise.

Picks and Plays

Mahoning Valley: Race 4: $5,000 Starter Allowance (six furlongs, 2:09 p.m. ET)

The incredibly durable #8 Beverly Park (6-5) has run 28 times this year, compiling 13 wins, six seconds, and three thirds. He was particularly sharp in an $8,000 starter allowance sprinting six furlongs at Mahoning Valley on Nov. 28, dueling for the lead before edging clear to win by one length.

That effort produced an excellent 95 Brisnet Speed rating, stamping Beverly Park as the horse to beat while descending to the $5,000 starter allowance level. Trainer Norman "Lynn" Cash has been on fire at Mahoning Valley, going 7-for-10 (70%) so far this meet, so we’ll count on Beverly Park to take home top honors over #2 Fahrenheit (8-1) and #5 Volbeat (5-2).

Selections

• #8 Beverly Park (6-5)
• #5 Volbeat (5-2)
• #2 Fahrenheit (8-1)

Wagers

• $18 Exacta: 8 with 5
• $12 Exacta: 8 with 2
  Total: $30

Zia Park: Race 8: Hobbs Fall Classic S. (one mile and 70 yards, 5:09 p.m. ET)

#8 Antonios Mark (5-2) is unbeaten in two starts for hot trainer Dallas Barton, a 27% winner at Zia Park this meet. Antonios Mark recently returned from a lengthy layoff to win a six-furlong allowance at Zia with pace-tracking tactics.

Jockey Oscar Ceballos has gone 3-for-8 (38%) teaming up with Barton over the last two months, and Antonios Mark’s pedigree offers potential for stretching out in distance. We’ll see if the chestnut gelding can spring a mild surprise against proven Zia Park stakes winners #5 Seventh St Diamond (5-1) and #6 Smartsrealgood (2-1).

Selections

• #8 Antonios Mark (5-2)
• #6 Smartsrealgood (2-1)
• #5 Seventh St Diamond (5-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 8 with 5,6 ($30)

Zia Park: Race 9: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs, 5:36 p.m. ET)

Stablemates #12 New Cut Road (3-1) and #11 Sambas Mark (2-1) ran second and third in a six-furlong sprint over this track and class level on Nov. 15. Both rallied from off the pace, with New Cut Road finishing one length ahead of Sambas Mark.

Sambas Mark is the morning line favorite, perhaps because the Nov. 15 heat marked his debut and trainer Todd Fincher wins at a 28% rate with second-time starters. But New Cut Road was returning form a six-month layoff (he ran third behind a pair of next-out winners in a spring stakes), and Fincher strikes at a 24% rate with horses running back for the second time following a layoff.

In other words, both Sambas Mark and New Cut Road warrant respect. Since they’re difficult to split, we’ll bank on New Cut Road to maintain his advantage.

First-time starter #2 King Bryce (10-1) can potentially get involved for the minor awards after turning in a sharp series of workouts at Zia Park.

Selections

• #12 New Cut Road (3-1)
• #11 Sambas Mark (2-1)
• #2 King Bryce (10-1)

Wagers

• $13 Exacta: 12 with 11
• $7 Exacta: 12 with 2
• $7 Trifecta: 12 with 11 with 2
• $3 Trifecta: 12 with 2 with 11
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Turf Paradise, Race 6: $4,750 Pick 5 carryover (4:00 p.m. ET)

The racing week at Turf Paradise kicks off with a $4,750 non-jackpot carryover up for grabs in the 50-cent Pick 5.

Planning to play along? We’ve analyzed the sequence and identified a single and a live longshot to build tickets around:

Best single: Race 7: #2 Cannonball Comin (5-2)

This $10,000 starter optional claimer taking place over 6 1/2 furlongs on dirt looks like a perfect spot for morning line favorite Cannonball Comin to record his third consecutive victory.

Cannonball Comin is 2-for-2 since arriving at Turf Paradise under the care of hot trainer Jose Silva Jr., a 24% winner this meet. After surviving a tough duel to win a $15,000 starter optional claimer with a sharp 85 Brisnet Speed rating, Cannonball Comin stretched out from five furlongs to six furlongs and successfully wired a $10,000 starter optional claimer.

Silva strikes at a 33% rate with last-out winners, and jockey Aldo Arboleda has won at a 26% rate teaming up with Silva over the last two months, so Cannonball Comin has positive jockey and trainer stats in his corner. Throw in the fact pacesetters have won 55% of 6 1/2-furlong dirt dashes at Turf Paradise this meet, and Cannonball Comin—with his plentiful early speed—looms as a viable single.

Live longshot: Race 6: #3 Way to Fire (5-1)

Granted, 5-1 doesn’t qualify as a “longshot” in the truest sense. But Way to Fire is the morning line fourth choice in this $4,000 claimer for fillies and mares sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs, so if you’re bold enough to single her—and assuming she wins—she’ll be more valuable to Pick 5 bettors than her odds suggest.

Way to Fire is 2-for-2 since being claimed by trainer Jose L. Silva one month ago. First she unleashed a big rally to dominate a $4,500 claimer for non-winners of two races by three lengths, earning a 73 Brisnet Speed rating. Then Way to Fire switched to dueling tactics and crushed a $4,500 claimer for non-winners of three races by 3 3/4 lengths, receiving a 72 Brisnet Speed rating.

For the most part, Way to Fire’s rivals have been posting similar or slower Brisnet Speed ratings. The exception is #1 Red Bottom Rebel (7-2), who put up five straight Speed ratings in the 75-82 range during the summer and early fall. Using both runners might be a smart strategy, but Red Bottom Rebel is cutting back in distance, so Way to Fire—with her red-hot form and proven sprinting success—may hold the advantage.

Good luck!