Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Dec. 14

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, Dec. 14 at Gulfstream Park and Turfway Park, including live longshots to support in a pair of Super High 5 carryovers.

Picks and Plays

Gulfstream Park: Race 8: $25,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (one mile, 3:35 p.m. ET)

#4 Avow (3-1) is unbeaten and unchallenged facing Florida-bred rivals at Gulfstream Park. The daughter of Arrogate overcame a slow start to dominate her debut by eight lengths nearly one year ago, then returned from a long layoff last month to trounce a $20,000 allowance optional claimer by 5 1/4 lengths.

Avow is stretching out from seven furlongs to one mile and stepping outside the Florida-bred ranks for the first time, but trainer Todd Pletcher has been hot at Gulfstream (going 5-for-16, 31% since the beginning of December), and Avow appears talented enough to keep her unbeaten record intact.

#5 Send for Me (2-1), unraced since dominating her November 2021 debut at Aqueduct by seven lengths, can battle with Avow’s stablemate #6 Liam’s Kiss (5-2) for second place.

Selections

• #4 Avow (3-1)
• #5 Send for Me (2-1)
• #6 Liam’s Kiss (5-2)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 4 with 5,6 ($30)

Turfway Park: Race 3: $5,000 Starter Allowance (six furlongs on Tapeta, 6:55 p.m. ET)

#9 Silver Moon Road (2-1) has been absolutely on fire at Horseshoe Indianapolis, winning six straight races by daylight margins. His last three victories have come at the $5,000 starter allowance level, including a Nov. 21 heat in which he defeated next-out winner Double Advantage by 3 1/2 lengths.

Silver Moon Road has run well on synthetic in the past, so switching from dirt to Tapeta shouldn’t be a major concern. Throw in the fact Horseshoe Indianapolis shippers have been winning with regularity at Turfway Park this meet, and Silver Moon Road is an appealing choice to defeat #1 Joyful Heart (6-1), #3 Music to My Ears (12-1), and #8 Big Sport (3-1).

Selections

• #9 Silver Moon Road (2-1)
• #3 Music to My Ears (12-1)
• #1 Joyful Heart (6-1)

Wagers

• $14 Exacta: 9 with 8
• $8 Exacta: 9 with 1,3 ($16)
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles on Tapeta, 7:25 p.m. ET)

#1 Boltoro (3-1) has shown promise in her last two starts running long on turf. In a one-mile maiden special weight at Kentucky Downs, the daughter of Bolt d’Oro rallied boldly to finish second by a nose. Then in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Keeneland, Boltoro again closed ground sharply to finish third by one length.

Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse has saddled three starters at Turfway so far this meet, and while none of them have visited the winner’s circle, two managed to crack the exacta. Boltoro has been training sharply over the Turfway Tapeta and should have every opportunity to give Casse a breakthrough victory.

#9 Catskill Humor (5-2), fifth in her debut over the Keeneland dirt for high-percentage trainer Brad Cox, is a logical contender for the exacta. Boltoro’s Casse-trained stablemate #10 Weehawken (7-2) is the other we’ll use.

Selections

• #1 Boltoro (3-1)
• #9 Catskill Humor (5-2)
• #10 Weehawken (7-2)

Wagers

• $16 to win on #1 Boltoro
• $7 Exacta: 1 with 9,10 ($14)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Gulfstream Park, Race 1: $5,308 Super High 5 carryover (12:10 p.m. ET)

The racing week at Gulfstream Park is kicking off on a high note with a $5,308 Super High 5 carryover up for grabs in Wednesday’s first race.

The event in question is a $32,000 starter optional claimer for fillies and mares racing one mile on turf. With eight entries, there are only 6,720 possible Super High 5 outcomes, which should make the $1 wager relatively straightforward to play.

There are many viable win contenders in the field, so we’ll highlight #3 Smart Spending (8-1) as a live longshot worth supporting. Her recent form over the Gulfstream Tapeta track has been mediocre, but last spring she overcame trouble to rally and win a $32,000 allowance optional claimer racing one mile over the Gulfstream lawn.

Returning to the same course, distance, and class level should help Smart Spending outrun her morning line odds under jockey Paco Lopez, a solid 19% winner on turf. Smart Spending is definitely worth including for the minor awards, and even playing her on top could be a smart way to spend betting dollars.

Turfway Park, Race 8: $1,012 Super High 5 carryover (9:25 p.m. ET)

The final race on Wednesday at Turfway Park features a $1,012 carryover in the $1 Super High 5.

In contrast to the Super High 5 offering at Gulfstream, this one looks like a beast to handicap. With 14 entries (including two also-eligible runners), there are 240,240 possible outcomes before scratches.

One longshot worth using in all slots of the Super High 5 (yes—even on top) is #10 Scrape (15-1). The daughter of Will Take Charge is a half-sibling to a pair of stakes winners, and she’s dropping down the class ladder after finishing fifth and seventh in her first two starts against $20,000 maiden claiming competition at Horseshoe Indianapolis.

As mentioned previously, Horseshoe Indianapolis shippers have been performing well at Turfway this meet, so Scrape has that positive angle in her corner. She’s also retaining the services of jockey Joseph Ramos, who has gone 7-for-33 (21%) to start the Turfway meet. Throw in the fact Ramos and trainer Randy Klopp have won at a 28% rate together over the last two months, and Scrape appears poised to outrun her morning line odds.

Good luck!