Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Dec. 16

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, Dec. 16 at Oaklawn Park, Fair Grounds, and Turfway Park, including a ticket for the $2,505 Pick 6 carryover at Fair Grounds.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Exacta Insurance: Receive refunds on exacta bets (up to $10) if your two selected horses finish in the first three home (but not in the winning order) in select races at Oaklawn Park. Offer applies to straight exacta bets only.
• Turfway Park Daily Double Down: Hit at least two daily doubles wagers at Turfway Park to unlock a 50% bonus on all winning Turfway daily double wagers for the day. Maximum total bonus is $50.
• 12 Days of Fair Grounds – 1 Million Points Late Pick 5: To win a share of one million points, opt in and place a winning wager on the Late Pick 5 at Fair Grounds.
• $3,000 Los Alamitos Leaderboard Contest: Place $10+ win wagers at Los Alamitos to earn points and play for your share of a $3,000 weekly jackpot.
• Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in eligible races at Randwick (Australia).
• Meadowlands $5,000 Early Pick 5 Hit It and Split It: Hit the early Pick 5 at Meadowlands to split a $5,000 bonus jackpot.

Picks and Plays

Oaklawn Park: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (one mile, 3:50 p.m. ET)

#2 Rocket and Roll (2-1) ran into trouble when debuting in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Keeneland last month, finishing sixth by a wide margin. But that was a fast race won by Arabian Knight (one of the most exciting two-year-olds in the country), and runner-up Determinedly has already come back to win his next start.

Trainer Brad Cox wins at a 28% rate with second-time starters, at a 29% rate with horses running long for the first time, and at a 38% rate with horses racing on Lasix for the first time—all stats that apply to Rocket and Roll. Also noteworthy, Rocket and Roll’s half-sister The Grass Is Blue won the Busanda S. racing 1 1/8 miles, so stretching out around two turns could certainly trigger improvement from Rocket and Roll.

#1 Citizen (5-1), a first-time starter from the red-hot barn of Ron Moquett, can battle with the consistent #4 Communication Memo (8-5) for places in the exacta and trifecta.

Selections

• #2 Rocket and Roll (2-1)
• #4 Communication Memo (8-5)
• #1 Citizen (5-1)

Wagers

• $12 Exacta: 2 with 4
• $8 Exacta: 2 with 1
• $6 Trifecta: 2 with 4 with 1
• $4 Trifecta: 2 with 1 with 4
  Total: $30

Fair Grounds: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 4:45 p.m. ET)

Since 2020, trainer Michael Stidham has compiled an excellent 10-for-41 (24%) record saddling experienced juveniles at Fair Grounds. This stat bodes well for #9 Speed Warning (5-1). The Stidham trainee debuted in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight on Nov. 18 at Fair Grounds and ran well in defeat, tracking the pace to finish third by three lengths.

Speed Warning has posted two sharp workouts at Fair Grounds since then (including a bullet half-mile in :47 4/5) and picks up hot jockey Reylu Gutierrez, a 23% winner at Fair Grounds this meet. It’s not hard to envision Speed Warning improving in his second start to beat the more experienced #2 Prince Cosmo (6-1), who finished 1 1/2 lengths ahead of Speed Warning on Nov. 18.

Selections

• #9 Speed Warning (5-1)
• #2 Prince Cosmo (6-1)
• #4 Natural Harbor (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #9 Speed Warning (5-1)
• $10 Exacta: 9 with 2
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 7: Allowance Optional Claiming (6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta, 8:55 p.m. ET)

#12 Visitant (8-5) boasts an impressive 8-6-1-1 record at Turfway Park, which includes a perfect 4-for-4 resume in sprints. Last winter, Visitant won a $50,000 allowance optional claimer by six lengths before adding the Forego S. and Big Daddy S. in succession. The latter victory came by 5 1/4 lengths in the blazing time of 1:08.33.

Visitant has posted triple-digit Brisnet Speed ratings in four of his last six starts and should be formidable while returning to Turfway for his first start since April. Red-hot jockey Gerardo Corrales (a 36% winner at Turfway this meet) is named to ride, so let’s confidently bet Visitant to win and key him over #5 Bad Beat Brian (7-2) in the exacta.

Selections

• #12 Visitant (8-5)
• #5 Bad Beat Brian (7-2)
• #3 Solidify (15-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #12 Visitant
• $10 Exacta: 12 with 5
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Fair Grounds, Race 3: $2,505 Pick 6 carryover (3:15 p.m. ET)

There’s a Pick 6 carryover worth $2,505 on the table for Friday’s card at Fair Grounds. Let’s check out the sequence and assemble a ticket:

Race 3: $10,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs)

None of the Louisiana-bred maidens in this field bring particularly inspiring form to the table, so we’ll spread deep with #1 Ondatrackpimpernel (7-2), #2 Reverent (3-1), #3 Autumn’s So Flashy (4-1), #4 Mine Your Biz (8-1), #5 Dignified N Krafty (5-1), #7 Punchie (8-1), and #8 Brother Jeff (8-1).

Race 4: $30,000 Claiming (six furlongs)

#6 Back Beat (5-2) is the horse to beat after running third in a $30,000 claimer sprinting seven furlongs at Churchill Downs last month. But #1 Top Note (3-1), dropping in class out of an $80,000 allowance optional claimer at Fair Grounds, can’t be dismissed from the inside draw. Post 1 is producing 20% winners sprinting six furlongs at Fair Grounds this meet.

Race 5: $5,000 Claiming (one mile and 70 yards)

In two starts since being claimed by high-percentage trainer Alexis Claire, #7 Dialed a Dame (5-2) has finished fifth in a $20,000 claimer at Horseshoe Indianapolis and fifth in a $15,000 claimer at Fair Grounds. Those efforts produced Brisnet Speed ratings of 73 and 74, the highest recent figures posted by any horse in Friday’s field. We’ll single Dialed a Dame in the Pick 6.

Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs)

As outlined previously, #9 Speed Warning (5-1) and #2 Prince Cosmo (6-1) are the two we prefer in this field of two-year-old maidens. We’ll use them both for Pick 6 purposes.

Race 7: $50,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (1 1/16 miles)

#3 Hidden Connection (5-2) won the 2021 Pocahontas (G3) and finished second by a nose in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) over this track and distance during the spring. She recently returned from a layoff with a decent third-place effort in a $125,000 allowance optional claimer at Churchill Downs, stamping Hidden Connection as the filly to beat on Friday. Nevertheless, we’ll also include the improving #4 Dial Ten for G (6-1), who was last seen wiring a Louisiana Downs allowance by 14 1/4 lengths.

Race 8: $5,000 Claiming (six furlongs)

#1 Charlie’s Town (7-2) was tons the best in a $10,000 maiden claimer sprinting six furlongs at Fair Grounds back in March, leading all the way to dominate by nine lengths. That effort produced an 80 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest number posted by any horse in Friday’s field this year. Charlie’s Town hasn’t run since, but trainer Lee Thomas wins at a respectable 16% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more, and Thomas has gone 3-for-6 (50%) teaming up with apprentice jockey Brianne Culp over the last 60 days. We’ll take a shot singling Charlie’s Town and his coupled stablemate #1A Stealing Apriority (7-2).

• $1 Pick 6: 1,2,3,4,5,7,8 with 1,6 with 7 with 2,9 with 3,4 with 1 ($56)

Good luck!