Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Dec. 19

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Monday, Dec. 19 at Mahoning Valley and Fair Grounds, including a $48 ticket for the $2,728 Pick 6 carryover at Fair Grounds.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• 12 Days of Fair Grounds – 1 Million Points Late Pick 5: To win a share of one million points, opt in and place a winning wager on the Late Pick 5 at Fair Grounds.

Picks and Plays

Mahoning Valley: Race 1: $8,000 Starter Allowance (one mile, 12:45 p.m. ET)

#6 Annmaria (4-1) has won three straight races at Mahoning Valley since Nov. 1, dominating a $5,000 claimer before adding an $8,000 claimer and an allowance. Along the way, she’s posted consistent Brisnet Speed ratings of 76, 78, and 78.

Annmaria has tactical speed but isn’t a need-the-lead type, which has proven to be a dominant combination racing one mile at Mahoning Valley this meet. She’s also drawn favorably in post 7, an advantage since horses drawn in posts 1-3 have been struggling over this distance.

#1A Blazing Zenna (3-1), a winner over this track, distance, and class level on Nov. 9, can rally to complete the exacta from post 6.

Selections

• #6 Annmaria (4-1)
• #1A Blazing Zenna (3-1)
• #5 Charity Stripe (8-1)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #6 Annmaria
• $15 Exacta: 6 with 1
  Total: $30

Fair Grounds: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles, 3:45 p.m. ET)

#3 Tales of Home (2-1) rallied boldly to finish second in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs last month, beaten only half a length while earning an excellent 82 Brisnet Speed rating.

The only horse who has run faster than Tales of Home is #2 Fine Cotton (7-2), an 0-for-13 maiden who posted an 84 Brisnet Speed rating when finishing fourth in a 1 3/16-mile heat during the spring at Churchill Downs. Fine Cotton has since posted Speed ratings of 73, 76, and 62, so Tales of Home will be tough to beat if she repeats (or betters) her 82 while stretching out in distance.

We’ll bet the race accordingly, using Fine Cotton and #5 Lotsandlotsofgold (4-1) for second place in an exacta.

Selections

• #3 Tales of Home (2-1)
• #5 Lotsandlotsofgold (4-1)
• #2 Fine Cotton (7-2)

Wagers

• $10 to win on #3 Tales of Home
• $10 Exacta: 3 with 2,5 ($20)
  Total: $30

Fair Grounds: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 4:45 p.m. ET)

#5 Icicles (8-5) ran strongly when debuting in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs last month. The daughter of Frosted pressed the pace and led in midstretch before settling for second place by half a length.

This promising effort produced an 84 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest figure in Monday’s field by a dozen points. A similar performance while cutting back to seven furlongs can send Icicles to the winner’s circle over fellow Churchill Downs shipper #6 Titled Lady (4-1) and the first-time starter #4 Charriere (9-2).

Selections

• #5 Icicles (8-5)
• #6 Titled Lady (4-1)
• #4 Charriere (9-2)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 5 with 6
• $10 Trifecta: 5 with 6 with 4
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Fair Grounds, Race 3: $2,728 Pick 6 carryover (3:15 p.m. ET)

Monday racing can be quiet at this time of year, but Fair Grounds is sprucing things up with an eight-race card highlighted by a $2,728 carryover in the $1 Pick 6.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Pick 6:

Race 3: $15,000 Claiming (1 1/16 miles)

#2 Magazine Street (7-2) has crossed the wire second in four straight starts, including a $15,000 claimer at Fair Grounds last month in which he was awarded the victory via disqualification. The three-year-old gelding brings competitive Brisnet Speed ratings to the table and has a shot to surprise against #3 Overthought (5-2), runaway winner of a $5,000 claimer at Fair Grounds on Dec. 11.

Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles)

We’ve already outlined our case for #3 Tales of Home (2-1), and we’ll single her in the second leg of the Pick 6.

Race 5: $30,000 Claiming (six furlongs)

#1 Saenz (3-1) misfired when finishing sixth in a $50,000 starter allowance at Churchill Downs last month, but two starts back he dominated a $50,000 maiden claimer at Keeneland by 6 3/4 lengths. This speedy Brad Cox trainee looks like a good fit for the $30,000 claiming level and should have every chance to take down fellow class droppers #6 She’ll Never Know (4-1) and #7 High Fashion Lady (5-1).

Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs)

For reasons previously explained, #5 Icicles (8-5) is a deserving favorite to win this six-furlong sprint for juvenile fillies. We’ll single her in the Pick 6.

Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs)

#1 Cloud Without Rein (4-1) and #2 Boss’ Dialin In (7-2) look like the best of the experienced runners in this field, but both have been posting Brisnet Speed ratings lower than par for Monday’s conditions. For backup, we’ll include the first-time starters #3 Trystintheniteaway (8-1) and #7 G’s Million (8-1).

Race 8: $5,000 Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs)

#1 Quest for Avette (8-1) has pacesetting speed and wired a $5,000 claimer over this track two starts back. He’d be a logical choice except for the fact he hasn’t run since March and trainer John Ney wins at only a 2% rate with horses returning from long layoffs. In case Quest for Avette needs a race off the break, we’ll use the class-dropping #5 C’Mon Ve (5-1) as well.

• $1 Pick 6: 2,3 with 3 with 1,6,7 with 5 with 1,2,3,7 with 1,5 ($48)

Good luck!