Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Dec. 2

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, Dec. 2 at Fair Grounds and Turfway Park, along with horses to play in non-jackpot carryovers at Turfway and Gulfstream Park.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in eligible races at Rosehill (Australia).
• Fair Grounds $1,000 Late Pick 5 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 5 at Fair Grounds to split a $1,000 daily jackpot.
• Exacta Insurance: Receive refunds on exacta bets (up to $10) if your two selected horses finish in the first three home (but not in the winning order) in select races at Del Mar. Offer applies to straight exacta bets only.
• Turfway Park Daily Double Down: Hit at least two daily doubles wagers at Turfway Park to unlock a 50% bonus on all winning Turfway daily double wagers for the day. Maximum total bonus is $50.

Picks and Plays

Fair Grounds: Race 6: Allowance (one mile and 70 yards, 4:45 p.m. ET)

#6 Batucada (9-5) was a flashy debut winner racing one mile at Churchill Downs on Sept. 16. After settling as far back as eighth place, Batucada unleashed a nice homestretch rally to surge past the leaders and prevail by three lengths.

This victory produced an 84 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest figure in Friday’s field. Batucada is adding Lasix (a 37% winning move for trainer Brad Cox) and arrives at Fair Grounds off a sharp five-furlong workout, suggesting she’s a deserving favorite to bring her record to a perfect 2-for-2.

Stablemate #1 Beyond Doubt (3-1) is a logical second choice after wiring a 7 1/2-furlong maiden special weight over the Horseshoe Indianapolis turf course. #3 Two Minute Drill (6-1) and #4 All About Me (7-2) can battle to complete the trifecta.

Selections

• #6 Batucada (9-5)
• #1 Beyond Doubt (3-1)
• #4 All About Me (7-2)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #6 Batucada
• $10 Exacta: 6 with 1
• $2.50 Trifecta: 6 with 1 with 3,4 ($5)
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 3: $8,000 Claiming (1 1/16 miles on Tapeta, 6:55 p.m. ET)

#8 Singsong Bird (3-1) boasts a 2-for-3 record at Turfway Park. In her most recent start over this track, the six-year-old mare rallied nicely to win a $12,500 claimer racing one mile by 1 3/4 lengths.

Singsong Bird has since hit the board in six consecutive dirt races, most recently running fourth in a $12,500 claimer at Keeneland. Claimed out of that event by high-percentage trainer Jonathan Wong (a 30% winner with new claiming acquisitions), Singsong Bird figures to thrive while returning to Turfway and dropping to the $8,000 claiming level.

Hot Presque Isle Downs shipper #6 A Real Hero (5-2) and #4 Joy of Treasure (5-1) are logical exacta contenders.

Selections

• #8 Singsong Bird (3-1)
• #6 A Real Hero (5-2)
• #4 Joy of Treasure (5-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #8 Singsong Bird
• $5 Exacta: 8 with 4,6 ($10)
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on Tapeta, 7:55 p.m. ET)

#5 What a Blast (3-1) has finished fifth, third, and fourth in his first three starts against maiden special weight company, recording his best finish in a one-mile turf test at Kentucky Downs.

Switching to Tapeta may trigger a winning run from What a Blast, who has hot connections in his corner. Trainer Mike Maker went 2-for-8 (25%) during the first two days of the Turfway meet, while jockey Gerardo Corrales compiled an even better 6-for-12 (50%) record.

#1 Ghoststryder (10-1), #11 Miranda Rights (2-1), and #12 Quadra Island (9-2) can battle for the minor awards.

Selections

• #5 What a Blast (3-1)
• #11 Miranda Rights (2-1)
• #12 Quadra Island (9-2)

Wagers

• $14 to win on #5 What a Blast
• $5 Exacta: 5 with 11,12 ($10)
  $1.50 Trifecta: 5 with 11,12 with 1,11,12 ($6)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Gulfstream Park, Race 5: $75,698 Pick 5 carryover (2:05 p.m. ET)

One of the best carryovers to chase on Friday can be found at Gulfstream Park, where the 50-cent Pick 5 has tossed up a $75,698 non-jackpot prize pool.

Looking for a single to build tickets around? We’ll steer you toward Race 7, a $20,000 allowance optional claimer for Florida-bred fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs on dirt. #6 Gitana (8-5) cracks the trifecta with regularity and looks like a good fit for this race.

Indeed, Gitana ran second over this precise track, distance, and class level on Oct. 2, beaten only by next-out winner Alluramore. Gitana has lots of tactical speed and routinely throws down competitive Brisnet Speed ratings in the 81-90 range, so look for this five-year-old mare to fire a winning shot in her first start since being claimed by high-percentage trainer Claudio Gonzalez, who wins at a 28% rate with new claiming acquisitions.

Turfway Park, Race 8: $1,551 Super High 5 carryover (9:25 p.m. ET)

The third day of racing at the Turfway Park Holiday Meet is the first to feature a non-jackpot carryover, with the $1 Super High 5 tossing up a $1,551 prize pool for Friday’s final race.

The evening finale is Race 8, a $50,000 maiden claimer for two-year-olds traveling one mile on Tapeta. A field of 14 has been entered, though two are on the also-eligible list, leaving a maximum field of 12 horses.

There’s a little bit of everything in the entries—first-time starters, horses dropping in class, horses rising in class, etc. It’s hard to predict who will run well (or not), and when you consider how none of the entrants has ever competed over a synthetic track, handicapping becomes even more difficult.

But amidst all this uncertainty, #6 Frog Town (4-1) seems like a horse worth building tickets around. The son of Speightster ran fourth in his debut against maiden special weight company sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs at Horseshoe Indianapolis, then improved to finish second in a $50,000 maiden claimer over six furlongs at Churchill Downs.

The fact Frog Town has already run well over Friday’s class level is appealing, and it’s worth noting trainer Cox wins at a lofty 39% rate with horses stretching out over a route distance off two straight sprints. Frog Town isn’t necessarily a guaranteed winner, but keying him to finish first or second in the Super High 5 seems like a solid start to assembling tickets.

Good luck!