Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Dec. 20

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Tuesday, Dec. 20 at Mahoning Valley and Turf Paradise, along with horses to single in the $4,863 Pick 5 carryover at Penn National.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Trifecta Tuesday: Receive a 15% bonus on trifecta winnings excluding stake amount; up to $25 per day.

Picks and Plays

Mahoning Valley: Race 2: $15,000 Claiming (six furlongs, 1:13 p.m. ET)

#2 Mutiny (8-5) has faced allowance competition in his last two starts over this track and distance, finishing second and third while earning respectable Brisnet Speed ratings of 74 and 85. And three starts back, Mutiny tackled a $16,000 claimer at Thistledown and led all the way to dominate by 9 1/4 lengths with an 83 Brisnet Speed rating.

Returning to the claiming ranks can send Mutiny to the winner’s circle under hot jockey Luis Perez, a 22% winner at Mahoning this meet.

The improving #6 Raise the Purses (6-1) is another logical contender after winning two straight starts against easier competition at Mahoning by 3 1/2 lengths apiece. He can battle with recent $10,000 claiming winner #5 Moester (8-1) and the consistent #4 Beat the Dealer (9-2) to complete the exacta and trifecta.

Selections

• #2 Mutiny (8-5)
• #6 Raise the Purses (6-1)
• #5 Moester (8-1)

Wagers

• $10 Exacta: 2 with 5,6 ($20)
• $2.50 Trifecta: 2 with 5,6 with 4,5,6 ($10)
  Total: $30

Mahoning Valley: Race 4: Allowance (one mile, 2:09 p.m. ET)

#5 Maximum Impact (2-1) has thrown down Brisnet Speed ratings in the 78-86 range in each of his last nine starts. Most recently, the Norman Cash trainee ran sixth in a $25,000 allowance optional claimer racing one mile at Penn National.

Maximum Impact should find the competition a bit easier at Mahoning Valley, where Cash has gone 8-for-11 (73%) this meet. We’ll bet Maximum Impact to win and key him over #4 Snowscape (4-1) and #8 Alpha Dog (10-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #5 Maximum Impact (2-1)
• #4 Snowscape (4-1)
• #8 Alpha Dog (10-1)

Wagers

• $16 to win on #5 Maximum Impact
• $7 Exacta: 5 with 4,8 ($14)
  Total: $30

Turf Paradise: Race 6: $30,000 Maiden Optional Claiming (about one mile on turf, 3:57 p.m. ET)

#7 Corazon de Lucia (3-1) is shipping in from Southern California, where he’s finished sixth in a couple of one-mile maiden special weights at Del Mar and Santa Anita. Facing easier competition at Turf Paradise might be all Corazon de Lucia needs to break through with a maiden victory under hot jockey Daniel Vergara, a 24% winner at Turf Paradise this meet.

#4 My Man Biggie (4-1), runner-up over this course and class level on Nov. 25, can take second place over #2 Mickey Goldmill (6-1) and #6 Westerberg (5-1). We’ll bet exacta and trifecta wagers accordingly.

Selections

• #7 Corazon de Lucia (3-1)
• #4 My Man Biggie (4-1)
• #2 Mickey Goldmill (6-1)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 7 with 4
• $5 Trifecta: 7 with 4 with 2,6 ($10)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Penn National, Race 4: $4,863 Pick 5 carryover (7:22 p.m. ET)

The Tuesday card at Penn National brings a $4,863 Pick 5 carryover to the table.

Constructing a winning ticket won’t necessarily be easy. Unlike many Pick 5 wagers, the minimum bet amount at Penn National is $1 rather than 50 cents. And with 40 entries across the five races (averaging eight horses per race), there are 30,240 possible outcomes.

The good news is, you can reduce the possibilities down to 560 if you’re willing to single the following two horses in the Pick 5:

Race 4: $5,000 Starter Allowance (one mile and 70 yards): #2 Sicilia Mike (2-1)

Sicilia Mike has been in sharp form as of late. The eight-year-old gelding obliterated a $5,000 starter allowance at Laurel Park two starts back, defeating a next-out winner by 11 1/2 lengths with a flashy 98 Brisnet Speed rating. Then, after finishing third in a $12,500 starter optional claimer, Sicilia Mike tackled another $5,000 starter allowance and rallied to victory by 5 3/4 lengths with a 95 Brisnet Speed rating.

None of Sicilia Mike’s rivals have recently posted a Brisnet Speed rating in the 90 range, so the fact Sicilia Mike has crushed that plateau in two of his last three starts is eye-catching. With the hot jockey/trainer duo of Angel Rodriguez and Bonnie Lucas in his corner, Sicilia Mike looms as an enticing single to start the Pick 5.

Race 6: Allowance (six furlongs): #8 Always Mia (8-5)

Always Mia nearly won a race over this track, distance, and class level on Nov. 29. After carving out quick fractions of :21.98 and :45.58, Always Mia fought on gamely down the homestretch to finish second by a neck. Horses rallying from midfield and farther behind finished first, third, and fourth, so it’s safe to say Always Mia burned out the other speed horses.

Always Mia had previously won two straight sprints at Charles Town and Laurel Park by daylight margins. If she gets away with an easy lead in her second start at Penn National, Always Mia can lead the way home as a logical single.

Good luck!