Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Dec. 21

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, Dec. 21 at Turf Paradise and Turfway Park, including a horse to key on top in Turfway’s $13,003 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in eligible races at Happy Valley (Hong Kong).

Picks and Plays

Turf Paradise: Race 6: Arizona Juvenile Fillies S. (6 1/2 furlongs, 3:49 p.m. ET)

#4 Beyond Awesome (5-1) has set the pace in all four of her starts, including when third in the Turf Paradise Open Spring Futurity against male rivals. Her pacesetting speed figures to be an advantage in the Arizona Juvenile Fillies S., considering 52% of six-furlong dirt sprints at Turf Paradise have been won in gate-to-wire fashion this meet.

Throw in the red-hot jockey/trainer duo of Luis Negron and Justin Evans (31% winners together over the last two months), and Beyond Awesome is an appealing 5-1 shot. We’ll bet her to win and key her over stakes winner #6 Aloha Breeze (2-1) and Southern California raider #1 Modera (9-2).

Selections

• #4 Beyond Awesome (5-1)
• #6 Aloha Breeze (2-1)
• #1 Modera (9-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #4 Beyond Awesome
• $5 Exacta: 4 with 1,6 ($10)
  Total: $30

Turf Paradise: Race 7: Lost in the Fog Juvenile S. (6 1/2 furlongs, 4:19 p.m. ET)

#8 Man Child (5-1) owns the highest Brisnet Speed rating in this field, having posted an 88 when finishing third behind multiple graded stakes winner Havnameltdown in the Best Pal (G3) at Del Mar.

Man Child faltered when stepping up in class and distance for the 1 1/16-mile American Pharoah (G1) last time out, finishing fifth by a wide margin, but the quality of competition was deep—1-2 finishers Cave Rock and National Treasure returned to finish second and third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1). Dropping back down in class and distance can send Man Child to the winner’s circle over #1 Big Creed (10-1), #5 Hi Yah (9-2), and #6 One in Vermillion (7-2)

Selections

• #8 Man Child (5-1)
• #1 Big Creed (10-1)
• #6 One in Vermillion (7-2)

Wagers

• $18 to win on #8 Man Child
• $4 Exacta: 8 with 1,5,6 ($12)
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 1: $30,000 Maiden Claiming (6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta, 5:55 p.m. ET)

#6 No Limitation (20-1) has competed in California, Kentucky, Ohio, and Indiana, most recently coming home fifth in a $15,000 maiden claimer racing 1 1/16 miles over the Horseshoe Indianapolis turf course.

No Limitation is ascending the class ladder for Wednesday’s test, and at first glance it’s hard to make a case for him to win. But No Limitation has been gelded since his last run and enters off encouraging workouts over the Keeneland training track, including a bullet half-mile in :48 1/5. He’s also trying a synthetic track for the first time and picking up a seven-pound weight break courtesy of apprentice jockey Walter Rodriguez.

Perhaps some combination of these changes will trigger a big step forward from No Limitation, putting him in the hunt for victory at 20-1. We’ll place a win bet on No Limitation and play him over #7 Dom Gervasio (3-1) and #11 Roan for the Rose (5-2) in the exacta.

Selections

• #6 No Limitation (20-1)
• #7 Dom Gervasio (3-1)
• #11 Roan for the Rose (5-2)

Wagers

• $12 to win on #6 No Limitation
• $4 Exacta: 6 with 7,11 ($8)
  Total: $20

Carryover Watch

Turfway Park, Race 8: $13,003 Super High 5 carryover (9:25 p.m. ET)

Five consecutive racing days have passed at Turfway Park without anyone assembling a winning ticket for the $1 Super High 5. That means there’s a $13,003 carryover up for grabs when the Turfway racing week kicks off on Wednesday.

The prize pool is available to chase in Race 8, a $30,000 claimer for fillies and mares who have never won two races. The distance is one mile on Tapeta, and with an overflow field of 14 entries (including two also-eligibles), there are 240,240 possible outcomes before scratches.

Many bettors figure to throw their support behind #11 Dreamful (9-5), a daughter of Kitten’s Joy who has posted Brisnet Speed ratings in the 80-88 range in seven of her last eight starts. She’s also cracked the trifecta in six of her last eight runs, showing impressive consistency.

But is Dreamful a lock to win? Not necessarily. Her 14-1-4-3 lifetime record indicates she tends to settle for minor awards more often than not, and she hasn’t visited the winner’s circle since July 2021. Furthermore, Dreamful is 0-for-6 racing on synthetic tracks, and she bled when finishing fifth (beaten half a length) in a $50,000 starter allowance over the Aqueduct turf course last time out. Throw in the fact Dreamful is breaking from an outside post, and there are reasons to believe she’s vulnerable to an upset on Wednesday.

Dreamful is still worth including for the minor awards, but #2 Bella Conchita (7-2) might be a better play on top.  The four-year-old filly exits a troubled third-place finish in a $50,000 claimer racing 1 1/16 miles over the Saratoga turf course, so a clean trip while dropping in class might be all she needs to spring a surprise.

But there are other factors in Bella Conchita’s favor as well. She ran three times over the Turfway Tapeta track last winter, peaking with a stretch-running success in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight. That effort produced a solid 87 Brisnet Speed rating, suggesting Bella Conchita is fast enough to beat Dreamful. Throw in the fact trainer Cherie DeVaux wins at a 26% rate in claiming races and Bella Conchita is an appealing filly to key on top.

Good luck!