Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Dec. 22

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Thursday, Dec. 22 at Fair Grounds, Gulfstream Park, and Turfway Park, including a horse to single in the $6,123 Pick 6 carryover at Fair Grounds.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• 12 Days of Fair Grounds – 1 Million Points Late Pick 5: To win a share of one million points, opt in and place a winning wager on the Late Pick 5 at Fair Grounds.

Picks and Plays

Fair Grounds: Race 1: $30,000 Claiming (one mile and 70 yards, 2:15 p.m. ET)

#4 Mount Kenya (9-5) has been freshened since finishing fifth in a $50,000 maiden claimer on July 3 at Churchill Downs. The five-year-old gelding has since been transferred to the care of high-percentage trainer Jose Camejo, a 27% winner at Fair Grounds this meet who strikes at a 32% rate with horses running for the first time under his care.

Mount Kenya owns the best Brisnet Speed ratings in Thursday’s field and should be tough to beat while dropping down to the $30,000 claiming level. Adding to the appeal is the fact Mount Kenya will be ridden by hot jockey Jose Rodriguez, a 22% winner at Fair Grounds this meet and a 35% winner teaming up with Camejo over the last two months.

#5 Path to Success (7-2) and #6 Fieldstone (2-1) can battle for exacta honors.

Selections

• #4 Mount Kenya
  
• #5 Path to Success
• #6 Fieldstone
  

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 4 with 5, 6 ($30)

Gulfstream Park: Race 7: $62,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (seven furlongs, 3:07 p.m. ET)

#2 Dr Post (7-5), runner-up in the 2020 Belmont (G1) and twice placed against Grade 1 company last year, is the morning line favorite for hot trainer Todd Pletcher. But the five-year-old veteran hasn’t run since November 2021 and hasn’t sprinted since March 2020, so he’s not necessarily unbeatable off the long layoff.

Let’s try to beat Dr Post with #4 Paco’s Pico (6-1). An exacta finisher in each of his last six starts, Paco’s Pico recently returned from a six-month layoff to win a $25,000 allowance optional claimer sprinting six furlongs at Gulfstream. That effort produced a career-best 99 Brisnet Speed rating, suggest Paco’s Pico still has upside.

#1 Endorsed (2-1) can round out the top three.

Selections

• #4 Paco’s Pico
• #2 Dr Post
• #1 Endorsed

Wagers

• $18 win: #4 Paco’s Pico
• $10 exacta: 4 with 2
• $2 Trifecta: 4 with 2 with 1
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 2: $5,000 Claiming (1 1/16 miles on Tapeta, 6:25 p.m. ET)

#11 Toil (4-1) showed tenacity in a $12,500 maiden claimer over the Belterra Park turf course last month, rallying to finish in a dead-heat for victory. The daughter of Outwork received an encouraging 71 Brisnet Speed rating, which stacks up well against Thursday’s field.

Switching from turf to synthetic is unexplored territory for Toil, but trainer William Cowans has gone 5-for-7 (71%) at Turfway this meet, and jockey Luan Machado has gone 5-for-11 (45%) teaming up with Cowans over the last two months. Having high-percentage human connections in her corner counterbalances the surface switch concerns for Toil.

We’ll try #3 Eiswein (5-2) and #10 Crossed the Line (9-2) for second place.

Selections

• #11 Toil
• #3 Eiswein
• #10 Crossed the Line

Wagers

• $20 win: #11 Toil
• $5 Exacta: 11 with 3, 10 ($10)
• Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Fair Grounds, Race 4: $6,123 Pick 6 carryover (3:15 p.m. ET)

A big Christmas week of racing at Fair Grounds just got even better. The Thursday card features an enticing $6,123 non-jackpot carryover in the $1 Pick 6.

The sequence doesn’t appear impossible to hit. There are 48 horses in the six races, averaging eight per race. That adds up to 230,400 possible outcomes, a hefty number no doubt, but not unreasonable for a Pick 6.

Even better, we can slice that number down to 46,080 if we’re willing to single #1 Strobe (3-5) in Race 5, a $50,000 allowance optional claimer taking place over six furlongs on dirt.

Race 5 is mathematically the perfect spot to seek a single. Only five horses have been entered, so all else being equal, there’s a 20% chance of picking the winner at random. And Strobe appears to have much better than a 20% shot at victory.

Strobe debuted on Kentucky Derby (G1) day at Churchill Downs and absolutely obliterated a six-furlong maiden special weight, leading all the way to prevail by 4 1/2 lengths in the blazing time of 1:08.71. That effort produced a powerful 107 Brisnet Speed rating, and the performance looks even better now that distant third-place finisher Elite Power has come back to win the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) and Vosburgh (G2).

Strobe subsequently spent five months on the sidelines, but he showed no signs of rust when returning to action in a six-furlong allowance on Nov. 12 at Keeneland, leading all the way to win by six effortless lengths.

One month later, Strobe suffered a shock defeat in a $125,000 allowance optional claimer sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Churchill Downs, but there were extenuating circumstances. Strobe was racing over a sloppy track for the first time and got beaten to the early lead in a fast-paced race; in the end, he ran deceptively well to finish second against Knocker Down, who came back to finish second by half a length in the $250,000 Steel Valley Sprint S. nine days later.

If Strobe encounters a fast track at Fair Grounds, he should be difficult or impossible to defeat. Pacesetters have won 55% of six-furlong sprints at Fair Grounds this meet, and there isn’t a crazy amount of speed in Thursday’s small field, so Strobe should have every opportunity to secure the lead from post 1. From there, the son of Into Mischief can cruise to victory under hot jockey Florent Geroux (a 31% winner at Fair Grounds), delivering for bettors who single Strobe in the Pick 6.

Good luck!