Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Dec. 23

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, Dec. 23 at Fair Grounds and Gulfstream Park, along with horses to single in the $17,717 Pick 6 carryover at Fair Grounds.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Exacta Insurance: Receive refunds on exacta bets (up to $10) if your two selected horses finish in the first three home (but not in the winning order) in select races at Gulfstream Park. Offer applies to straight exacta bets only.
• 12 Days of Fair Grounds – 1 Million Points Late Pick 5: To win a share of one million points, opt in and place a winning wager on the Late Pick 5 at Fair Grounds.
• Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in eligible races at Sha Tin (Hong Kong) and Randwick (Australia).

Picks and Plays

Fair Grounds: Race 1: $12,500 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs, 2:15 p.m. ET)

#3 Planters Punch (3-5) ran strongly in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Fair Grounds one year ago, dueling for the lead before staying on to finish second by half a length. But he misfired when finishing sixth in a similar event one month later and subsequently went missing from the work tab for months.

Planters Punch hasn’t raced January, but hot trainer Tom Amoss (a 42% winner at Fair Grounds this meet) wins at a 21% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more. Even better, Amoss strikes at a 25% rate with horses competing in a maiden claimer for the first time, so dropping in class should help Planters Punch fire a winning shot off the layoff.

#2 Rammer Jammer (9-2), third over this track, distance, and class level on Dec. 4, can complete a cold exacta.

Selections

• #3 Planters Punch (3-5)
• #2 Rammer Jammer (9-2)
• #4 Herms Crown (6-1)

Wagers

• $25 Exacta: 3 with 2

Fair Grounds: Race 3: $15,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs, 3:15 p.m. ET)

#4 My Lady Luna (9-2) finished sixth in her debut for a $50,000 maiden claiming tag at Churchill Downs, then shipped to Fair Grounds and improved to run third in a $30,000 maiden claimer on Dec. 3.

Trainer Chris Hartman wins at a lofty 32% rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder, so My Lady Luna figures to thrive while descending into a $15,000 maiden claimer. She won’t need much improvement to challenge heavy favorite #6 Electric Sense (4-5) for supremacy.

Selections

• #4 My Lady Luna (9-2)
• #6 Electric Sense (4-5)
• #2 Keep Left (5-1)

Wagers

• $25 Exacta: 4 with 6

Gulfstream Park: Race 7: $25,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (one mile, 3:05 p.m. ET)

#7 Expressman (9-5) looked like something special in his debut sprinting seven furlongs at Saratoga during the summer, leading all the way to dominate by 7 1/4 lengths. Expressman won easily and posted a flashy 105 Brisnet Speed rating, by far the highest figure belonging to any horse in Friday’s field.

Expressman subsequently misfired in a seven-furlong allowance at Aqueduct, finishing second with a much lower 80 Brisnet Speed rating. But trainer Todd Pletcher (a 30% winner at Gulfstream since Dec. 1) gave Expressman a little time off before returning the three-year-old colt to a regular work pattern at Palm Beach Downs, where he breezed a bullet five furlongs in 1:01 1/5 on Dec. 2.

Expressman should have every chance to rebound in his third start. We’ll use #2 Desert Ruler (9-2) and #10 Black Belt (4-1) for second place in an exacta.

Selections

• #7 Expressman (9-5)
• #2 Desert Ruler (9-2)
• #10 Black Belt (4-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 7 with 2,10 ($30)

Carryover Watch

Fair Grounds, Race 4: $17,717 Pick 6 carryover (3:45 p.m. ET)

The Friday card at Fair Grounds just got more interesting. The $1 Pick 6 features a non-jackpot carryover worth $17,717.

Planning to play along? We’ve analyzed the entries and identified a pair of suggested singles to build tickets around:

Race 5: $50,000 claiming (six furlongs): #6 Multi Platinum (3-1)

Southern California raider Multi Platinum has posted 81+ Brisnet Speed ratings in four of his last five starts, including when fourth in a $32,000 claimer at Del Mar last month. On that occasion, Multi Platinum carved out the pace before weakening in the final furlong to finish 2 1/4 lengths behind a next-out winner.

Multi Platinum is ascending the class ladder for Friday’s $50,000 claiming test, but there are reasons to believe he’s more formidable than his 3-1 morning line odds imply. Pacesetters have won 56% of six-furlong dirt sprints at Fair Grounds this meet, and Multi Platinum looms as the only obvious speed horse in Friday’s field.

It certainly appears as though Multi Platinum will shake loose on an uncontested lead under hot jockey Jose Rodriguez, a 21% winner at Fair Grounds this meet. From there, the three-year-old son of champion sprinter Runhappy should prove difficult to catch.

Race 6: $50,000 Maiden Claiming (1 1/16 miles): #4 Harold’s Cloud (5-2)

Harold’s Cloud looks like an excellent fit in this $50,000 maiden claimer for two-year-olds. He debuted in a $150,000 maiden claimer sprinting six furlongs at Keeneland and showed pace-pressing speed to finish second by a nose. He then displayed even more speed when carving out the pace in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs, an event in which he faded to finish fifth in a field of nine.

Harold’s Cloud is dropping in class and stretching out in distance at Fair Grounds, so the door is open for Harold’s Cloud to secure an uncontested lead in a largely paceless field. That alone could be enough to send him to the winner’s circle, but it’s also encouraging to note Harold’s Cloud is racing on Lasix for the first time, a 21% winning move for trainer Michael Stidham.

Throw in the fact Stidham has won at a 28% rate to start the Fair Grounds meet, and Harold’s Cloud looms as a deserving favorite under jockey Reylu Gutierrez, a 23% winner this meet.

Good luck!