Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Dec. 26

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Monday, Dec. 26 at Fair Grounds and Santa Anita, including a ticket for the $51,808 Pick 6 carryover at Fair Grounds.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• 12 Days of Fair Grounds – 1 Million Points Late Pick 5: To win a share of one million points, opt in and place a winning wager on the Late Pick 5 at Fair Grounds.
• $100,000 Road to the Kentucky Derby Prep Race Leaderboard Competition: Place $25 win bets on Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifying races between Dec. 26 and April 15 for a chance to win your share of a $100,000 prize pool and a VIP trip to the 2023 Kentucky Derby.

Picks and Plays

Fair Grounds: Race 4: Sugar Bowl S. (six furlongs, 2:30 p.m. ET)

#3 Corona Bolt (8-5) impressed in his Nov. 19 debut sprinting six furlongs at Churchill Downs. The son of hot young sire Bolt d’Oro tracked the early pace from third place, took command after a half-mile, and held on down the lane to defeat next-out winner Communication Memo by one length.

This effort produced a solid 86 Brisnet Speed rating, and Corona Bolt is eligible to move forward in the Sugar Bowl. Horses trained by Brad Cox frequently improve second-time out, and Corona Bolt is set to race on Laisx for the first time, a powerful 38% winning angle for Cox. Throw in hot jockey Florent Geroux, and Corona Bolt is a formidable favorite.

#6 Late September (7-2), a two-time stakes winner against Louisiana-bred juveniles, can complete the exacta.

Selections

• #3 Corona Bolt (8-5)
• #6 Late September (7-2)
• #2 Alto Road (8-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #3 Corona Bolt
• $10 Exacta: 3 with 6
  Total: $30

Santa Anita: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 3:32 p.m. ET)

#3 Faustin (2-1) has been training up a storm for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. Half-mile in :47 4/5; half-mile in :46 3/5; five furlongs in 1:00 3/5; five furlongs in :59 2/5; five furlongs in 1:00; half-mile in :47; half-mile in :46 4/5; five furlongs in :59 1/5.

A son of Curlin and three-time Grade 1 winner Hard Not to Like, Faustin sold for $800,000 earlier this year and looks like a possible stakes star in the making. We’ll count on Faustin to deliver victory on debut over #5 Yellow Brick (5-2) and #7 Worcester (3-1).

Selections

• #3 Faustin (2-1)
• #5 Yellow Brick (5-2)
• #7 Worcester (3-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 3 with 5,7 ($30)

Fair Grounds: Race 8: Letellier Memorial S. (six furlongs, 4:30 p.m. ET)

Assuming Cox wins the Sugar Bowl with Corona Bolt, he’ll have an opportunity to pick up a stakes double courtesy of #2 Dazzling Blue (5-2). The daughter of leading sire Into Mischief looked grand in her Nov. 16 debut at Churchill Downs, setting a quick pace before drawing off to dominate by 4 1/2 lengths.

Dazzling Blue is adding Lasix, a 38% winning move for Cox as mentioned previously. The 88 Brisnet Speed rating she posted at Churchill is the second-highest figure in the Letellier Memorial field, so any improvement at all can send Dazzling Blue to the winner’s circle over Fair Grounds allowance winner #4 Promise of Hope (7-2) and Smart Halo S. winner #8 Twice as Sweet (4-1).

Selections

• #2 Dazzling Blue (5-2)
• #4 Promise of Hope (7-2)
• #8 Twice as Sweet (4-1)

Wagers

• $16 to win on #2 Dazzling Blue
• $7 Exacta: 2 with 4,8 ($14)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Fair Grounds, Race 8: $51,808 Pick 6 carryover (3:15 p.m. ET)

The day after Christmas is a big one at Fair Grounds. There are nine stakes on the agenda, and the final six serve as the sequence for a $1 Pick 6 featuring a hefty $51,808 non-jackpot carryover.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Pick 6:

Race 8: Letellier Memorial S. (six furlongs)

As previously outlined, #2 Dazzling Blue (5-2) looms as a formidable favorite while adding Lasix for trainer Brad Cox. We’ll single the daughter of Into Mischief to kick off the Pick 6.

Race 9: Richard R. Scherer Memorial S. (six furlongs)

Phoenix (G2) winner #7 Manny Wah (3-1) exits a fourth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) and has every chance to win while dropping in class, but #1 Bango (7-2) and #2 Miles Ahead (5-2) enter off stakes victories and have the Brisnet Speed ratings to challenge.

Race 10: Buddy Diliberto Memorial S. (1 1/16 miles on turf)

#6 Spooky Channel (4-1) is known for his long-distance prowess, having won multiple graded stakes over 1 1/2 miles. But he’s also 2-for-3 racing 1 1/16 miles, and his two-race win streak coming into the Buddy Diliberto Memorial is encouraging. Don’t be surprised if Spooky Channel takes down #7 English Tavern (7-2) and #8 Spanish Kingdom (5-1).

Race 11: Gun Runner S. (1 1/16 miles)

#3 Determinedly (7-2) owns the two fastest Brisnet Speed ratings in this Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier and recently broke his maiden at Churchill Donws by 7 1/4 lengths. This Mark Casse trainee has the speed to sit a perfect trip in this largely paceless field, so we’ll make Determinedly a Pick 6 single.

Race 12: Untapable S. (one mile and 70 yards)

#1 Pretty Mischievous (3-1) won her first two starts, then finished third in the Golden Rod (G2) on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks. The daughter of Into Mischief should be tough while descending the class ladder at Fair Grounds, though recent Churchill Downs maiden winner #4 Vahva (7-2) has run faster on the Brisnet Speed rating scale. We’ll use them both.

Race 13: Tenacious S. (1 1/16 miles)

#3 Intrepid Heart (9-2) brings sharp Brisnet Speed ratings to the table, but after six consecutive runner-up finishes, it’s hard to trust him to win. #5 Forza di Oro (6-2) won the 2020 Discovery (G3) and is eligible to improve in his first start for Brad Cox, and defending Tenacious winner #8 Chess Chief (10-1) can’t be dismissed off his 5-for-11 record over the Fair Grounds main track. We’ll throw in two-time graded stakes winner #13 Mr. Wireless (6-1) for good measure.

• $1 Pick 6: 2 with 1,2,7 with 6,7,8 with 3 with 1,4 with 3,5,8,13 ($72)

Good luck!