Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Dec. 28

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, Dec. 28 at Tampa Bay Downs and Turfway Park, including three win choice at odds of 4-1 and higher.

Picks and Plays

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 3: $16,000 Maiden Claiming (one mile on turf, 1:30 p.m. ET)

Trainer Gerald Bennett has been on fire at Tampa Bay Downs, going 12-for-32 (38%) since November. Bennett can potentially saddle a nice-priced winner on Wednesday when #8 Noble and Kind (8-1) tackles this $16,000 maiden claimer.

Noble and Kind never really fired in his first start under Bennett’s care, finishing last of six in a $32,000 maiden claimer racing 1 1/16 miles over the Tampa turf course. But Bennett wins at a 25% rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder, and Noble and Kind previously ran second in a $16,000 maiden claimer over the Gulfstream Park Tapeta track.

Throw in the presence of hot jockey Samy Camacho (a 26% winner at Tampa), and Noble and Kind is worth betting to win and keying over #1 Lucid (9-5) and #7 Gods Glory (2-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #8 Noble and Kind (8-1)
• #1 Lucid (9-5)
• #7 Gods Glory (2-1)

Wagers

• $18 to win on #8 Noble and Kind
• $7 Exacta: 8 with 1
• $5 Exacta: 8 with 7
  Total: $30

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 4:10 p.m. ET)

Gerald Bennett’s #1 Free Shot (9-5) is the morning line favorite after finishing second over this track, distance, and class level on Dec. 3. But on that occasion, Free Shot saved ground and rallied to finish only a neck ahead of third-place runner #5 One Tough Dame (5-1), who dueled for the early advantage while making her career debut.

If One Tough Dame improves in her second start, she can turn the tables on Free Shot and prevail at a nice price. We’ll bet the race accordingly and throw first-time starter #7 Lance’s Smile (5-1) into the mix for second place.

Selections

• #5 One Tough Dame (5-1)
• #1 Free Shot (9-5)
• #7 Lance’s Smile (5-1)

Wagers

• $18 to win on #5 One Tough Dame
• $7 Exacta: 5 with 1
• $5 Exacta: 5 with 7
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (6 1/2 furlongs, 7:55 p.m. ET)

#7 Sherwood Avenue (4-1) debuted in a six-furlong sprint over this track, distance, and class level nearly one year ago, setting fast fractions of :21.90 and :44.84 before weakening in the homestretch to finish third by three lengths.

Sherwood Avenue hasn’t run since, but trainer Wesley Ward wins at an impressive 25% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more, and Ward has gone 4-for-9 (44%) to start the current Turfway meet. Sherwood Avenue is racing on Lasix for the first time and picking up Turfway’s leading jockey Gerardo Corrales (a 37% winner this meet), so all signs suggest Sherwood Avenue is ready to fire a strong shot.

We’ll add #3 Stand for Freedom (7-2) and #9 Woodline (3-1) for exacta purposes.

Selections

• #7 Sherwood Avenue (4-1)
• #3 Stand for Freedom (7-2)
• #9 Woodline (3-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #7 Sherwood Avenue
• $5 Exacta: 7 with 3,9 ($10)
  Total: $30

Good luck!