Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Dec. 29

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Thursday, Dec. 29 at Fair Grounds and Turfway Park, including horses to support in Turfway’s $2,321 Super High 5 carryover.

Picks and Plays

Fair Grounds: Race 7: $17,500 Allowance Optional Claiming (six furlongs, 5:15 p.m. ET)

Speed has been dominant in six-furlong sprints at Fair Grounds this meet, with pacesetters winning 51% of the time from a large sample size of 86 races.

This bodes well for the speedy duo of #1 Charlie’s Creed (7-2) and #2 Concept (4-1). Charlie’s Creed wired a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Fair Grounds last month, winning by two lengths with an 88 Brisnet Speed rating. Concept hasn’t run since April, but he has speed and wired the 2021 Kip Deville S. by 1 1/2 lengths with a 95 Brisnet Speed rating.

Let’s box Charlie’s Creed and Concept in the exacta and see if they can’t run 1-2.

Selections

• #2 Concept (4-1)
• #1 Charlie’s Creed (7-2)
• #3 Twirling Roses (6-1)

Wagers

• $10 Exacta box: 1,2 ($20)

Turfway Park: Race 1: $5,000 Claiming (1 1/16 miles on Tapeta, 5:55 p.m. ET)

Speed has struggled racing 1 1/16 miles at Turfway this fall, with pacesetters winning only 6% of the time. The most dominant Brisnet running style designation has been “S,” with horses in that category winning 53% of races.

#1 Runaway Mom (3-1) is an “S” type with a strong chance to win. She’s posted consistent and competitive Brisnet Speed ratings in the 71-74 range in each of her last four starts, most recently rallying to finish a decent fifth in a $15,000 claimer racing one mile at Turfway. Descending to the $5,000 level can send Runaway Mom to the winner’s circle, especially when you consider how the rail post is producing 24% winners racing 1 1/16 miles at Turfway this meet.

We’ll use #4 Etelka (10-1) and #6 Lieutenant Kitty (2-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #1 Runaway Mom (3-1)
• #4 Etelka (10-1)
• #6 Lieutenant Kitty (2-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 Runaway Mom
• $5 Exacta: 1 with 4,6 ($10)
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 6: $7,500 Maiden Claiming (1 1/16 miles on Tapeta, 8:25 p.m. ET)

#2 Paid Twice (5-2) ran a fine race over this track and class level on Dec. 7. Racing for the first time over the Turfway Tapeta, Paid Twice dropped 10 lengths off the early pace, gained a ton of ground while racing wide around the far turn, seized a one-length lead in midstretch, and then weakened late to finish second by 2 1/2 lengths.

Paid Twice broke from post 12 on Dec. 7 and should enjoy starting from post 2 on Thursday, which opens the door for more of a ground-saving trip. Trainer Victoria Oliver has gone 2-for-5 (40%) to start the Turfway meet, so let’s see if Paid Twice can make his second local start a winning one.

We’ll throw #4 Rare N Ready (8-1), #6 Steady Eddie (6-1), and #9 American Silver (15-1) into the mix for an exacta.

Selections

• #2 Paid Twice (5-2)
• #4 Rare N Ready (8-1)
• #6 Steady Eddie (6-1)

Wagers

• $18 to win on #2 Paid Twice
• $4 Exacta: 2 with 4,6,9 ($12)
• Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Turfway Park, Race 10: $2,321 Super High 5 carryover (10:25 p.m. ET)

The final race on Thursday at Turfway Park boasts a $2,321 carryover in the $1 Super High 5. But winning a share won’t be easy, and handicapping before race-day changes are announced is even harder.

The difficulty stems from the fact Race 10 is a $15,000 maiden claimer featuring an overflow field of 13 entries. Only 12 horses are allowed to start in the one-mile Tapeta test, and unfortunately, decisive morning line favorite #13 Kid Shelleen (8-5) is the also-eligible entrant.

Kid Shelleen is absolutely the horse to beat if he draws in. The five-year-old gelding finished third in a $30,000 maiden claimer sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Turfway on Nov. 30, then returned nine days later to run second in a one-mile heat over the same track and class level. Those efforts produced Brisnet Speed ratings of 73 and 77, two of the best recent figures posted by any horse in Thursday’s field.

If Kid Shelleen draws in, we recommend keying him on top in the Super High 5. But if he scratches, there’s no clear alternative to favor.

One obvious contender is #12 Tolkien (3-1), runner-up in a $10,000 maiden claimer on dirt at Horseshoe Indianapolis last time out. Horseshoe Indianapolis shippers have performed well at Turfway this meet, and Tolkien ran second (with an 81 Brisnet Speed rating) in his only previous Turfway start, so his credentials are solid even while stepping up to the $15,000 maiden claiming level. Helping Tolkien’s cause is the seven-pound weight allowance he gains courtesy of apprentice jockey Walter Rodriguez.

But an even better choice in the event of a Kid Shelleen scratch might be #7 Lute’s Angel (4-1). True, the three-year-old gelding has struggled in his three previous route appearances, failing to finish within a dozen lengths of victory.

However, Lute’s Angel improved dramatically in his Turfway debut earlier this month, gaining a ton of ground down the homestretch of a 6 1/2-furlong $15,000 maiden claimer to finish second by three-quarters of a length. That effort produced an 83 Brisnet Speed rating (20 points higher than his previous best number), so there’s a chance Lute’s Angel relishes Tapeta like no other surface he’s previously encountered. That might be enough for Lute’s Angel to run a winning race while stretching back out in distance.

Good luck!