Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Dec. 5

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Monday, Dec. 5 at Mahoning Valley and Mountaineer, along with a horse to single in Zia Park’s $2,855 Pick 5 carryover.

Picks and Plays

Mahoning Valley: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (one mile and 70 yards, 1:41 p.m. ET)

Speed hasn’t been carrying very well traveling one mile and 70 yards at Mahoning Valley, with pacesetters winning only 7% of the time. The three inside posts have likewise struggled, with horses drawn in post 4 and wider holding an advantage.

For these reasons, we’ll try to beat morning line favorite #1 Hurry Up Chic Chic (8-5), a pacesetter who has drawn the rail. Instead, we’ll bet the more tractable #5 Liznow (3-1), who finished a good third in a one-mile maiden special weight at Mahoning Valley last month. Her performance was flattered when the runner-up returned to win her next start.

Let’s bet Liznow to win, then key her over Hurry Up Chic Chic and Woodbine raider #4 Ashwicken (9-2) in the exacta and trifecta.

Selections

• #5 Liznow (3-1)
• #4 Ashwicken (9-2)
• #1 Hurry Up Chic Chic (8-5)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #5 Liznow
• $5 Exacta: 5 with 1,4 ($10)
• $2.50 Trifecta: 5 with 1,4 with 1,4 ($5)
  Total: $30

Mahoning Valley: Race 6: $5,000 Starter Allowance (one mile and 70 yards, 3:05 p.m. ET)

Keeping the above-mentioned track bias stats in mind, #4 Star Hawk (9-5) looks like the runner to beat in this one-mile and 70-yard heat. The six-year-old gelding has won five of his last six starts and was tons the best in an $8,000 starter allowance at Mahoning Valley last month, settling in midfield before bursting away under a hand ride to dominate by 7 3/4 lengths.

That blowout victory produced a career-best 94 Brisnet Speed rating, but it was hardly a fluke—Star Hawk has reached or exceeded the 90 plateau in all five of his victories this year. He looks ready to win right back at the $5,000 starter allowance level.

#3 Come See About It (5-2) has won three straight races and is a logical choice to battle with #1 Actspectation (6-1), #5 American Union (7-2), and #7 Zero Gravity (8-1) for the minor awards.

Selections

• #4 Star Hawk (9-5)
• #3 Come See About It (5-2)
• #7 Zero Gravity (8-1)

Wagers

• $6 Trifecta: 4 with 3 with 1,5,7 ($18)
• $6 Trifecta: 4 with 7 with 3
• $1 Superfecta: 4 with 3 with 7 with 1,5 ($2)
• $1 Superfecta: 4 with 3 with 1,5 with 7 ($2)
• $1 Superfecta: 4 with 7 with 3 with 1,5 ($2)
  Total: $30

Mountaineer: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 8:40 p.m. ET)

The experienced runners in this field of three-year-old fillies don’t appear overly formidable, so we’ll take a shot with the first-time starter #2 You Do You (7-2).

You Do You has been breezing regularly since the beginning of October, most recently clocking half a mile from the starting gate in :50 4/5 at The Thoroughbred Center. Hot trainer Caio Caramori wins at a 13% rate with first-time starters and has gone 6-for-17 (35%) at Mountaineer this meet, so You Do You is worth betting to win and keying over #4 Pangea (4-1) and #5 Caiopiroska (9-5) in the exacta.

Selections

• #2 You Do You (7-2)
• #4 Pangea (4-1)
• #5 Caiopiroska (9-5)

Wagers

• $16 to win on #2 You Do You
• $7 Exacta: 2 with 4,5 ($14)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Zia Park, Race 6: $2,855 Pick 5 carryover (4:15 p.m. ET)

The 50-cent Pick 5 at Zia Park has gone unsolved for three consecutive racing days, which means Monday’s card features a $2,855 non-jackpot carryover.

The sequence looks a bit tricky to handicap. Each race contains at least eight horses, and there are 45 entries (averaging nine per race) in total, equating to 56,320 possible outcomes.

On the bright side, the Pick 5 starts with a formidable favorite worth singling, which reduces the number of possible outcomes to a more manageable 7,040. That flashy favorite is #8 Mindofmyown (1-1) in Race 6, a $5,000 claimer for New Mexico-bred fillies and mares sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt.

Mindofmyown towers over the field from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective. Whereas none of her rivals have earned a figure higher than 86, Mindofmyown boasts a career-best 91. Mindofmyown’s advantage is even clearer when you review the last four Speed ratings posted by each horse in the field; none of her rivals have exceeded the 70 mark, whereas Mindofmyown’s last four Speed ratings are 76, 74, 75, and 74.

Mindofmyown enters off four consecutive runner-up finishes in non-state restricted $6,250 and $5,000 claimers, including two at Zia Park. Dropping into the New Mexico-bred ranks should make Mindofmyown difficult to beat for high-percentage trainer Martin Valdez-Gabral Jr., a 21% winner at Zia this meet and a 25% winner teaming up with jockey Enrique Gomez over the last two months.

There’s another big positive in Mindofmyown’s favor: the track bias profile at Zia Park. According to Brisnet stats, inside posts are at a disadvantage sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs; from a sample size of 45 races, the rail has produced 2% winners while posts 1 through 3 have averaged a 10% win rate.

This stands in stark contrast to the stats compiled by horses breaking from post 8 and wider; they win at an average rate of 20%. Since Monday’s sixth race contains exactly eight horses, Mindofmyown in post 8 has the most favorable draw, cementing the morning line choice as a viable single.

Good luck!