Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Dec. 6

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Tuesday, Dec. 6 at Mahoning Valley, Turf Paradise, and Mountaineer, including tickets for Mountaineer’s $2,457 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Trifecta Tuesday: Receive a 15% bonus on trifecta winnings excluding stake amount; up to $25 per day.

Picks and Plays

Mahoning Valley: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (one mile and 70 yards, 1:13 p.m. ET)

Pacesetters and horses drawn inside have been struggling when racing one mile and 70 yards at Mahoning Valley, so we’ll look for #5 Onemorandthecheck (8-5) to track #2 Gun Buddy (8-1) through the early going and parlay a perfect trip into victory.

Onemorandthecheck ran second over this track, distance, and class level on Nov. 2, then came back 11 days later to run second in a $15,000 maiden claimer at Churchill Downs. Claimed out of that event by high-percentage trainer Gary Johnson (a 26% winner with new claiming acquisitions), Onemorandthecheck is slated to be ridden on Tuesday by jockey Mauro Cedillo, a 35% winner teaming up with Johnson over the last two months.

#3 Blunder (9-2), fourth in the Nov. 2 maiden heat at Mahoning Valley, can battle with morning line favorite #1 Flocked (6-5) to complete the exacta and trifecta.

Selections

• #5 Onemorandthecheck (9-5)
• #3 Blunder (9-2)
• #1 Flocked (6-5)

Wagers

• $10 Exacta: 5 with 1,3 ($20)
• $5 Trifecta: 5 with 1,3 with 1,3 ($10)
  Total: $30

Turf Paradise: Race 1: $8,500 Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs, 2:30 p.m. ET)

#4 Hughie’s Holiday (5-2) was tons the best in a $4,500 maiden claiming race sprinting five furlongs at Turf Paradise last month, dueling for the lead before pulling clear in the final furlong to dominate by 8 1/4 lengths. Her performance was flattered when the distant runner-up returned to win her next start over the same track and class level by 12 lengths.

Hughie’s Holiday’s flashy victory produced a 76 Brisnet Speed rating, the second-highest figure belonging to any filly in Tuesday’s field. A similar performance in her first try against proven winners can send Hughie’s Holiday to the winner’s circle over #1 Midnight Baby (7-2), #2 Rattleme (9-2), and #6 Bold Intention (4-1).

Selections

• #4 Hughie’s Holiday (5-2)
• #1 Midnight Baby (7-2)
• #6 Bold Intention (9-2)

Wagers

• $18 to win on #4 Hughie’s Holiday
• $6 Trifecta: 4 with 1 with 2,6 ($12)
  Total: $30

Mountaineer: Race 3: Allowance (one mile, 7:50 p.m. ET)

#1 Mystique Saboteur (2-1) ran into some traffic trouble early in a $125,000 allowance optional claimer sprinting six furlongs at Keeneland and never factored thereafter, finishing fifth. But even in defeat, Mystique Saboteur earned a respectable 76 Brisnet Speed rating.

Mystique Saboteur had previously employed pressing/dueling tactics to win a 5 1/2-furlong allowance at Mountaineer by 2 1/4 lengths, earning an 81 Brisnet Speed rating. The rail post produces 23% winners racing one mile at Mountaineer, and pacesetters win at a 39% rate, so Mystique Saboteur—a sprinter stretching out in distance—should have every chance to grab the lead from post 1 and never look back.

#3 Gray Fashion (6-1) and #5 Content (7-5) are the two we’ll add for exacta purposes.

Selections

• #1 Mystique Saboteur (2-1)
• #3 Gray Fashion (6-1)
• #5 Content (7-5)

Wagers

• $14 to win on #1 Mystique Saboteur
• $8 Exacta: 1 with 3,5 ($16)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Mountaineer, Race 8: $2,457 Super High 5 carryover (9:55 p.m. ET)

The Tuesday card at Mountaineer features a $2,457 Super High 5 carryover.

The wager is available to play in Race 8, a $4,000 claimer for horses who have never won two races. The distance is six furlongs on dirt, and 12 horses have been entered, though two are on the also-eligible list and a maximum field of 10 horses will face the starter.

The morning line favorite is #5 Cant Glide by Katz (5-2), and he looks formidable. In two starts since arriving at Mountaineer, he’s demonstrated strong form. First, he employed pace-tracking tactics to dominate a $4,000 maiden claimer (beating next-out winner No More by 6 3/4 lengths), and then he tackled a $4,000 claimer for non-winners of two races and ran second behind a next-out winner.

Cant Glide by Katz brings competitive Brisnet Speed ratings to the table for hot trainer Julie Mathes, a 30% winner at Mountaineer. Throw in the fact Cant Glide by Katz will be ridden by hot jockey Luis Batista (a 25% winner teaming up with Mathes over the last two months), and the favorite is worth keying on top in the Super High 5.

For the minor awards, we have to respect #8 Payster (3-1) and the above-mentioned #9 No More (7-2). They met over this track and class level on Nov. 23 and ran second and third, separated by a neck while finishing less than a length behind the winner. Both have the Brisnet Speed ratings to factor on Tuesday.

#7 War Doctor (8-1) couldn’t quite keep pace with No More when the latter won a $4,000 maiden claimer at Mountaineer, finishing third by three lengths. But War Doctor subsequently dominated a similar race by 4 1/4 lengths in his first start for trainer Brenda Bell, suggesting he’s worth using underneath the favorites.

The same must be said of #11 Golden Oak (8-1) if he draws in off the also-eligible list, as well as #6 Verrazano Legacy (12-1) and #2 On Tilt (15-1). All three have run well over this track and class level in recent starts.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5. It’s a pricey play, but if also-eligible entrant Golden Oak scratches, the cost will decrease significantly:

• $1 Super High 5: 5 with 8,9 with 8,9 with 2,6,7,11 with 2,3,4,6,7,10,11 ($48)
• $1 Super High 5: 5 with 8,9 with 2,6,7,11 with 8,9 with 2,3,4,6,7,10,11 ($48)
• $1 Super High 5: 5 with 2,3,4,6,7,10,11 with 8,9 with 8,9 with 2,6,7,11 ($48)
  Total: $144

Good luck!