Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Dec. 7

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, Dec. 7 at Mahoning Valley and Turfway Park, along with horses to play in the $1,515 Super High 5 carryover at Gulfstream Park.

Picks and Plays

Mahoning Valley: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (one mile, 12:45 p.m. ET)

#3 Swelter (5-2) has shown some promise in five starts over the Tapeta track at Presque Isle Downs, most notably running second in a one-mile maiden special weight. Switching to dirt may trigger improvement from Swelter, considering he’s a son of two-time Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) winner Tiznow out of a mare by Preakness (G1) winner Bernardini.

Swelter also figures to receive a favorable trip over a track that has played against rail runners and pacesetters. Adding Lasix is another positive, so we’ll key Swelter over #2 Agnello’s Dream (5-1) and #5 Motown Collection (3-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #3 Swelter (5-2)
• #6 Motown Collection (3-1)
• #2 Agnello’s Dream (5-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 3 with 2,6 ($30)

Turfway Park: Race 1: $7,500 Maiden Claiming (one mile on Tapeta, 5:55 p.m. ET)

#2 Under the Bed (8-1) showed little in her debut for a $30,000 maiden claiming tag racing 1 1/16 miles at Keeneland last month, finishing fifth in a field of seven. But none of her Wednesday rivals have shown especially promising form either; morning line favorite #7 Ellie Deli (2-1) hasn’t finished within 10 lengths of victory in three starts.

Under the Bed is trained by William Cowans, who has gone 2-for-2 to start the Turfway meet. Just as significantly, Under the Bed will be ridden by jockey Luan Machado, who has gone 4-for-9 (44%) teaming up with Cowans over the last two months. The stats suggest Under the Bed will be dangerous while descending to the $7,500 maiden claiming level.

At 8-1, Under the Bed is worth betting to win. We’ll also key her over #1 Dreaming Always (7-2) and #10 Inside Girl (3-1) in search of a hefty exacta payday.

Selections

• #2 Under the Bed (8-1)
• #10 Inside Girl (3-1)
• #1 Dreaming Always (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win #2 Under the Bed
• $5 Exacta: 2 with 1,10 ($10)
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 3: $15,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 6:55 p.m. ET)

As mentioned above, trainer William Cowans has gone 2-for-2 at Turfway this meet. Both of those winners were first-time starters who conducted their pre-race training at The Thoroughbred Center, which matches the profile of #7 Gracie Mansion (8-1).

A daughter of Candy Ride produced by the stakes-winning mare Daydreamin Gracie, Gracie Mansion has put together a lengthy work in preparation for her debut, capped off by a quintet of five-furlong workouts. Cowans wins at a 33% rate with horses debuting in maiden claimers, and Luan Machado is named to ride, so Gracie Mansion is worth betting to win and keying over #4 Connelmaura (3-1) and #12 Goshen (2-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #7 Gracie Mansion (8-1)
• #4 Connelmaura (3-1)
• #6 Goshen (2-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #7 Gracie Mansion
• $5 Exacta: 7 with 4,6 ($10)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Gulfstream Park, Race 1: $1,515 Super High 5 carryover (12:10 p.m. ET)

If you’re looking for a difficult handicapping challenge, we recommend checking out Wednesday’s first race at Gulfstream Park. The event in question is a $50,000 maiden optional claimer for two-year-old fillies sprinting five furlongs on turf, and with 11 entries, players chasing the $1,515 Super High 5 carryover must sort through 55,440 possible outcomes.

The number of possibilities isn’t the tricky part, however. What makes the race so difficult is the fact only two of the entrants have ever run on turf, and neither of them finished in the top three.

If there’s a bright spot, it’s the fact morning line favorite #10 Pink Party Pants (7-2) appears reasonably trustworthy. As a daughter of the multiple Grade 2-winning turf sprinter Bucchero, Pink Party Pants has the pedigree to shine as a grass dasher.

Pink Party Pants debuted in a five-furlong turf maiden special weight at Meadowlands and ran a strong race in defeat. Leading by a minimum of two lengths through quick fractions of :22.52 and :47.47 over a good course, Pink Party Pants weakened late to finish fourth, beaten only 2 1/4 lengths.

Speed tends to carry well in five-furlong turf sprints at Gulfstream, and the 99 Brisnet E2 Pace rating Pink Party Pants received on debut is easily the highest E2 Pace rating belonging to any filly in Wednesday’s field. If Pink Party Pants shakes loose up front (as seems possible), she may prove tough to catch in her second start for trainer Danny Gargan, a 29% winner at Gulfstream since the beginning of the year.

We recommend keying Pink Party Pants on top in the Super High 5. Underneath, #2 Megan Makin Money (4-1) is worth supporting. The daughter of Kantharos has lots of speed and hasn’t missed the trifecta in three starts against maiden special weight competition over the Presque Isle Downs Tapeta track. The progeny of Kantharos win at a 15% rate when trying turf for the first time, so there’s potential for Megan Makin Money to relish the surface switch.

Good luck!