Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Dec. 8

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Thursday, Dec. 8 at Fair Grounds, including a ticket for the $1,596 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• 12 Days of Fair Grounds – 1 Million Points Late Pick 5: To win a share of one million points, opt in and place a winning wager on the Late Pick 5 at Fair Grounds.

Picks and Plays

Fair Grounds: Race 3: $20,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs, 3:15 p.m. ET)

#3 Wishert (5-2) has been facing tougher competition for trainer Joseph Foster. The two-year-old gelding has run seventh and fifth in his first two starts against Louisiana-bred maiden special weight company at Louisiana Downs.

Wishert showed sharply improved tactical speed in his latest run and was only beaten four lengths while earning a 70 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest figure in Thursday’s field by 10 points. Dropping into a $20,000 maiden claimer for Louisiana-breds should be a winning move, especially since trainer Joseph Foster wins at a 27% rate with horses transitioning from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company.

The first-time starter #2 Main Dude (9-2) and Wishert’s stablemate #1 Mysterious Spirit (7-2) are logical runners to include in the exacta.

Selections

• #3 Wishert (5-2)
• #1 Mysterious Spirit (7-2)
• #2 Main Dude (9-2)

Wagers

• $16 to win on #3 Wishert
• $7 Exacta: 3 with 1,2 ($14)
• Total: $30

Fair Grounds: Race 4: Allowance (one mile and 70 yards, 3:45 p.m. ET)

#4 Mo Bling (5-2) has posted four straight Brisnet Speed ratings in the 70-74 range, stamping her among the fastest fillies in Thursday’s field. She was last seen finishing second over this track, distance, and class level on Nov. 19, beaten only a head after leading in midstretch.

A typical performance from Mo Bling should put her right in the hunt for victory, with #5 Anita’s Vision (3-1) and #1 Kittenofthe Court (7-2) looming as her main rivals.

Selections

• #4 Mo Bling (5-2)
• #5 Anita’s Vision (3-1)
• #1 Kittenofthe Court (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 4 with 5
• $10 Trifecta: 4 with 5 with 1
• 50-cent Pick 5: 4 with 2,4,5,7 with 1,5 with 1,2,6 with 4,5,6 ($36)
  Total: $66

Fair Grounds: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles, 5:15 p.m. ET)

#2 Baseline Beater (3-1) doesn’t have any tactical speed, but he’s unleashed decent late rallies to finish fifth in his first two starts against maiden special weight company at Keeneland and Churchill Downs. Along the way, he’s knocked heads with promising runners like Victory Formation and Release McCraken.

There isn’t much speed at all in Thursday’s field, so Baseline Beater may be able to stay closer to the early pace. Adding Lasix is another positive sign, suggesting Baseline Beater is ready to break through and defeat #5 Single Ruler (4-1) and #6 Step On It (10-1).

Selections

• #2 Baseline Beater (3-1)
• #5 Single Ruler (4-1)
• #6 Step On It (10-1)

Wagers

• $16 to win on #2 Baseline Beater
• $7 Exacta: 2 with 5,6 ($14)
• Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Fair Grounds, Race 3: $1,596 Pick 6 carryover (3:15 p.m. ET)

The racing week at Fair Grounds kicks off with a $1,596 carryover on the table in the $1 Pick 6.

Planning to play along, but not sure which runners to support? We’ve got you covered with a race-by-race analysis of the Pick 6 sequence:

Race 3: $20,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs)

We’ve already made our case for #3 Wishert (5-2), who is dropping in class from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company. We’ll single him to start the Pick 6.

Race 4: Allowance (one mile and 70 yards)

As previously described, #4 Mo Bling (5-2) is our top choice after finishing second by a head over this track, distance, and class level on Nov. 19. We’ll count on her to take home top honors.

Race 5: $15,000 Claiming (six furlongs)

#2 Medway Queen (6-1) trounced a $10,000 claimer at Churchill Downs last month by 2 3/4 lengths, earning a career-best 80 Brisnet Speed rating. A similar effort will make Medway Queen dangerous at Fair Grounds, but in case she falters while ascending the class ladder, we’ll use #4 Madam Henny (3-1), #5 Abbey Lane (7-2), and #7 Why Behave (9-2) as backup.

Race 6: $30,000 Claiming (six furlongs)

#5 Master Game (5-2) nabbed a $40,000 maiden claimer at Keeneland last time out, and during the spring he finished behind future Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) winner Elite Power on a couple of occasions. Master Game is an obvious win threat, but we can’t completely dismiss #1 Arabian Prince (3-1), who is dropping down in class and distance after finishing sixth in a $75,000 claimer racing one mile at Churchill Downs.

Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles)

For reasons outlined earlier, we like the chances of #2 Baseline Beater (3-1), who adds Lasix after facing quality competition at Keeneland and Churchill Downs. But we’re also going to throw his more tactical rivals #1 Fortune (6-1) and #6 Step On It (10-1) into the mix, just in case one gets brave on an easy lead.

Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (one mile)

#4 Classical Magnolia (7-2) was beaten only half a length when third in a six-furlong sprint over this track and class level. She should be dangerous while stretching out in distance for her second run off the layoff, though #5 Drewsilla (5-2) already has positive experience running long and hasn’t missed the trifecta in her last five starts. Nor can we dismiss #6 Lead Me (2-1), runner-up in a $75,000 maiden claimer racing one mile at Churchill Downs during the spring.

• $1 Pick 6: 3 with 4 with 2,4,5,7 with 1,5 with 1,2,6 with 4,5,6 ($72)

Good luck!