Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Dec. 9

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, Dec. 9 at Fair Grounds and Turfway Park, including a horse to key on top in Turfway’s $2,795 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Exacta Insurance: Receive refunds on exacta bets (up to $10) if your two selected horses finish in the first three home (but not in the winning order) in select races at Aqueduct. Offer applies to straight exacta bets only.
• Turfway Park Daily Double Down: Hit at least two daily double wagers at Turfway Park to unlock a 50% bonus on all winning Turfway daily double wagers for the day. Maximum total bonus is $50.
• 12 Days of Fair Grounds – 1 Million Points Late Pick 5: To win a share of one million points, opt in and place a winning wager on the Late Pick 5 at Fair Grounds.
• $3,000 Los Alamitos Leaderboard Contest: Place $10+ win wagers at Los Alamitos to earn points and play for your share of a $3,000 weekly jackpot.

Picks and Plays

Fair Grounds: Race 3: Magic City Classic S. (one mile, 3:15 p.m. ET)

The three-year-old filly #1 Fired Up Tiger (8-5) enters this stakes for Alabama-breds in hot form. Two starts back, she squared off against Alabama-bred males in the 6 1/2-furlong Fall Roll Tide S. at Louisiana Downs and obliterated her opposition by 12 lengths. Most recently, Fired Up Tiger led all the way to win a seven-furlong allowance against non-state-restricted fillies and mares at Delta Downs.

Fired Up Tiger is stretching out in distance for the Magic City Classic, but she’s already won around two turns at Delta Downs, so the extra furlong shouldn’t be problematic. Fired Up Tiger looks ready to spring a mild upset against reigning Magic City Classic winner #3 Foolish Steve (6-5).

Selections

• #1 Fired Up Tiger (8-5)
• #3 Foolish Steve (6-5)
• #6 Two Mikes N Doc G (5-1)

Wagers

• $25 Exacta: 1 with 3

Fair Grounds: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles, 5:45 p.m. ET)

#7 Cerchi (7-2) showed promise in her debut racing 7 1/2 furlongs over the Horseshoe Indianapolis turf course. Facing half a dozen rivals in a maiden special weight, Cerchi tracked the early pace before staying on to finish second behind next-out Keeneland allowance winner Heavenly Sunday.

As a daughter of Into Mischief out of a mare by Quiet American, Cerchi has the pedigree to handle dirt. Throw in the fact trainer Brad Cox wins at a lofty 38% rate with horses racing on Lasix for the first time (as Cerchi will do on Friday), and we’ve likely found a solid win play.

We’ll see if #1 Best Performer (3-1) or #3 Hayunevano (5-1) can round out the exacta.

Selections

• #7 Cerchi (7-2)
• #1 Best Performer (3-1)
• #3 Hayunevano (5-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #7 Cerchi
• $5 Exacta: 7 with 1,3 ($10)
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 1: $7,500 Maiden Claiming (one mile on Tapeta, 5:55 p.m. ET)

Horses shipping in from Horseshoe Indianapolis have performed well at Turfway Park so far this meet, so we’ll look toward #6 Go for It (3-1) as a key win threat in this $7,500 maiden claimer.

Go for It has finished fifth, fifth, and third in his first three starts against tougher maiden special weight and $20,000 maiden claiming company at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Trainer Genaro Garcia wins at a 32% rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder, so descending to the $7,500 maiden claiming level may send Go for It to the winner’s circle.

Fellow Horseshoe Indianapolis shipper #3 Steel Hawk (3-1) can battle with longshot #5 Parachutebattalion (15-1) to complete the exacta.

Selections

• #6 Go for It (3-1)
• #3 Steel Hawk (3-1)
• #5 Parachutebattalion (15-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 Go for It
• $7 Exacta: 6 with 3
• $3 Exacta: 6 with 5
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Turfway Park, Race 8: $2,795 Super High 5 carryover (9:25 p.m. ET)

The Friday card at Turfway Park features a $2,795 carryover in the $1 Super High 5. But be forewarned, there’s no guarantee that someone will construct a winning ticket.

The carryover is available to play in Race 8, a $30,000 maiden claimer that looks massively difficult to handicap. An overflow field of 14 horses (including two also-eligible runners) has entered the one-mile Tapeta test. Assuming 12 horses start, there are 95,040 possible outcomes.

But wait, it gets harder. Nine of the 14 horses have yet to race over a synthetic track, so predicting which of the inexperienced runners will take to Tapeta (or not) is difficult at best and impossible at worst.

So why play the Super High 5? Well, if you can decipher the winning combination, there’s a chance you’ll be the only one to do so and sweep the entire pool plus carryover. A payoff measured in thousands of dollars sounds pretty good, right?

The horse with the best record competing on synthetic is arguably #5 Mucho Mojo (9-2), and he might be the best horse to build tickets around. In three starts against maiden special weight company at Turfway Park earlier this year, Mucho Mojo showed promise. After finishing sixth in his debut sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs, Mucho Mojo ran third in back-to-back races over one mile, earning improving Brisnet Speed ratings of 74 and 81.

Mucho Mojo hasn’t competed over a synthetic track since then, but he earned a decent 75 Brisnet Speed rating when finishing fifth in a one-mile turf maiden special weight at Horseshoe Indianapolis last time out. Horses exiting races at Horseshoe Indianapolis have been winning left and right at Turfway this meet (they nabbed four out of eight races on Thursday), so Mucho Mojo looks ready to fire a winning shot while returning to Turfway and dropping down to the $30,000 maiden claiming level.

There are plenty of other viable win contenders in the Friday entries, but $1 Super High 5 wagers can quickly grow expensive to play. To keep costs down (and still have a decent shot at putting together a winning ticket), we recommend keying Mucho Mojo on top in the Super High 5.

Good luck!