Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Feb. 13

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Monday, Feb. 13 at Mahoning Valley and Parx Racing, along with horses to play in Turf Paradise’s $2,682 Pick 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Monday Harness Exacta Win Bonus: Receive a 50% bonus (up to $50 per day) on winning exacta bets at selected harness tracks. Offer applies to your first straight exacta bet in a race featuring seven or more starters.

Picks and Plays

Mahoning Valley: Race 1: $7,500 Claiming (one mile and 70 yards, 12:35 p.m. ET)

#3 Heza Handful (2-1) (scratched) has been facing tougher competition than he’ll encounter on Monday. His last two starts at Mahoning Valley have shown promise; he ran second in a $12,500 allowance optional claimer on Nov. 28 and seventh in a $15,000 claimer on Jan. 3, on both occasions displaying pace-tracking speed.

The $7,500 claiming level should be more suitable for Heza Handful. Hot trainer Eric Reed (a 26% winner at Mahoning this meet) wins at a 24% rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder, so let’s bet Heza Handful over fellow class dropper #1 Good Idea (8-5) in a cold exacta.

Selections

• #3 Heza Handful (2-1)
• #1 Good Idea (8-5)
• #2 Beyond My Dreams (9-2)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 3 with 1

Mahoning Valley: Race 3: $8,000 Starter Allowance (six furlongs, 1:35 p.m. ET)

#4 Reinvestedinterest (7-5) has been in red-hot form since being claimed by high-percentage trainer David Wolochuk, a 39% winner at Mahoning this meet. Reinvestedinterest wired a $15,000 claimer for Ohio-breds on Dec. 27 at Mahoning, then beat non-state-restricted allowance rivals over the same track on Jan. 30.

These flashy victories produced impressive Brisnet Speed ratings of 93 and 94, the best recent numbers earned by any horse in Monday’s field. Reinvestedinterest shouldn’t have any trouble extending his win streak in this $8,000 starter allowance for Ohio-breds, so we’ll bet him over #2 Ohio Munny (7-2), #3 Nebulosa (6-1), and #5 Ohio Player (8-1) in a trifecta and call it a day.

Selections

• #4 Reinvestedinterest (7-5)
• #2 Ohio Munny (7-2)
• #5 Ohio Player (8-1)

Wagers

• $7.50 Trifecta: 4 with 2,5 with 2,3,5 ($30)

Parx Racing: Race 6: $7,500 Claiming (six furlongs, 2:10 p.m. ET)

#2 High Velocity (2-1) has won three of his last five starts with sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 89, 84, and 85. He wired a $5,000 claimer racing one mile at Parx last month, but he’s also a capable sprinter. Three starts back, he led by daylight at every call to dominate a 6 1/2-furlong $5,000 claimer at Parx by six lengths.

High Velocity’s key rival on Monday is fellow speedster #5 Breithorn (5-2), who has carved out the pace to finish second in each of his last three starts. Those efforts produced Brisnet Speed ratings of 80, 75, and 85, so Breithorn hasn’t been running quite as fast as High Velocity. But it’s worth noting trainer Alfredo Velazquez has gone 8-for-13 (62%) at Parx this year, so Velazquez trainees can’t be underestimated.

Let’s box High Velocity and Breithorn in the exacta.

Selections

• #2 High Velocity (2-1)
• #5 Breithorn (5-2)
• #4 Golden Spoke (7-2)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta box: 2,5 ($30)

Carryover Watch

Turf Paradise, Race 4: $2,682 Pick 5 carryover (4:25 p.m. ET)

If you’re looking for a non-jackpot carryover to play on the first day of the new week, then you’ll be happy to know Turf Paradise is obliging with a $2,682 prize pool up for grabs in the 50-cent Pick 5.

We’ve analyzed the sequence and identified a suggested single and a value play to build tickets around:

Best single: Race 8: #8 Pistol Power (3-1)

At first glance, this $3,500 starter allowance might seem difficult to handicap. The distance is one mile on turf, but none of the eight entrants have ever won a grass race. Surely this is a strange place to seek a single?

Maybe, or maybe not. Morning line favorite Pistol Power actually offers a lot of appeal. The nine-year-old gelding has spent 47 of his 49 career starts competing on dirt, but he handled turf just fine in a pair of recent $5,000 starter optional claimers at Turf Paradise, employing pacesetting tactics to finish second in both races.

Pistol Power brings sharp Brisnet Speed ratings to the table and should be tough to catch in his third grass start. He fits this class level nicely and has already defeated a couple of his Monday rivals, so we’ll take a stand and single Pistol Power in the Pick 5.

Value play: Race 5: #7 Miss Whiskey (9-2)

Morning line favorite #2 Beautiful Mess (3-1) is a logical contender in this $30,000-$20,000 maiden claimer taking place over 6 1/2 furlongs on dirt. She’s finished second in each of her three starts at Turf Paradise, including two over this class level. But her tendency to settle for minor awards is at least a little concerning.

We recommend using Beautiful Mess in the Pick 5, but only in equal strength with the first-time starter #7 Miss Whiskey (9-2). Conditioned by hot trainer Kory Owens (a 32% winner at Turf Paradise this meet), Miss Whiskey has shown speed during morning workouts over this track, most notably clocking five furlongs in :59 4/5. Owens wins at a 22% rate with first-time starters, so Miss Whiskey is eligible to outrun her odds on debut.

Good luck!