Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Feb. 14

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Tuesday, Feb. 14 at Parx Racing and Turf Paradise, along with tickets for the $683 Super High 5 carryover at Sunland Park.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Trifecta Tuesday: Receive a 15% bonus on trifecta winnings excluding stake amount; up to $25 per day.

Picks and Plays

Parx Racing: Race 6: $16,000 Maiden Claiming (seven furlongs, 2:10 p.m. ET)

#6 Blackwater Falls (9-5) and #4 Shadow Chaser (5-2) finished just half a length apart when running second and third in a six-furlong sprint over this track and class level on Jan. 11. Both have since returned to finish second in $10,000 claimers at Parx, reiterating their strong current form.

Blackwater Falls and Shadow Chaser look like possible standouts in Tuesday’s field, so we’ll box them in the top two slots of a trifecta while adding #3 Runnin Joke (7-2) and #5 Show Em the Lights (5-1) for third place. We’ll hope to cash a ticket capitalizing on the Trifecta Tuesday promotion.

Selections

• #6 Blackwater Falls (9-5)
• #4 Shadow Chaser (5-2)
• #5 Show Em the Lights (5-1)

Wagers

• $7.50 Trifecta: 4,6 with 4,6 with 3,5 ($30)

Parx Racing: Race 8: $16,000 Starter Optional Claiming (six furlongs, 3:04 p.m. ET)

#5 Nurturing (8-5) hasn’t missed the trifecta in her last nine starts, winning five times. She rallied impressively to win a $35,000 allowance optional claimer sprinting seven furlongs at Parx last month and brings several 85-plus Brisnet Speed ratings to the table, stamping the five-year-old mare as the runner to beat.

#4 Decoupage (5-2), runaway winner of a $20,000 allowance optional claimer at Laurel Park earlier this month, can battle with #1 Take Charge Erica (6-1) for exacta honors.

Selections

• #5 Nurturing (8-5)
• #4 Decoupage (5-2)
• #1 Take Charge Erica (6-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 5 with 1,4 ($30)

Turf Paradise: Race 7: $4,500 Claiming (one mile, 5:52 p.m. ET)

After competing in a lengthy series of races against tougher competition, #10 Back to Business (3-1) showed improvement when dropping into a $4,500 claimer over this track and distance last month, finishing second by two lengths. The 69 Brisnet Speed rating he posted marked his 10th straight number in the 63-74 range.

Racing for the hot jockey/trainer duo of Harry Hernandez and Marcus Vitali (33% winners together over the last two months), Back to Business looms as the horse to beat in his second try over Tuesday’s conditions.

#4 Fearless Factor (5-1) and #1 Shaman’s Prodigy (7-2) are the two we’ll add for exacta purposes.

Selections

• #10 Back to Business (3-1)
• #4 Fearless Factor (5-1)
• #1 Shaman’s Prodigy (7-2)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 10 with 1,4 ($30)

Carryover Watch

Sunland Park, Race 9: $683 Super High 5 carryover (6:00 p.m. ET)

If you’re looking for a tough handicapping challenge, but one with a little extra betting value up for grabs, you’re advised to check out Tuesday’s Super High 5 at Sunland Park. The 50-cent wager is available to play in Race 9 and features a $683 non-jackpot carryover.

Race 9 is a $6,500 maiden claimer for fillies and mares sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs on dirt, and the race looks tough to handicap. There are 10 entries, equating to 30,240 possible Super High 5 outcomes, and separating the key contenders isn’t easy. Case in point? The morning line favorite is listed at hefty 4-1 odds.

That favorite is #9 Midnightonthenile (4-1), and keying her for first and second place might be the best strategy. After competing primarily against maiden special weight competition in 2022, Midnightonthenile tackled an $8,000 maiden claimer on Jan. 22 at Sunland and ran evenly to finish fourth. She’s posted many competitive Brisnet Speed ratings in the past and figures to appreciate dropping down to the $6,500 maiden claiming level, setting the stage for victory.

#8 Catty Dom (9-2) is another obvious contender after cracking the trifecta in six of her last seven starts. Her lone miss came on an occasion when she lost her jockey. Catty Dom ran third in a $6,500 maiden claimer against New Mexico-breds last time out and finished second by a neck in a non-state-restricted $5,000 maiden claimer two starts back, so she looks like a decent fit for Tuesday’s class level.

We can’t dismiss #10 Margot (6-1) from consideration either. She ran third in a six-furlong dash over this track and class level on Jan. 15, which marked her first start outside of California. Jockey Alfredo Juarez Jr. has won at a 23% rate teaming up with hot trainer Dick Cappellucci over the last two months, so Margot has high-profile connections in her corner.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

• 50-cent Super High 5: 9 with 8,10 with 8,10 with 1,2,7 with 1,2,3,5,6,7 ($15)
• 50-cent Super High 5: 8,10 with 9 with 8,10 with 1,2,7 with 1,2,3,5,6,7 ($15)
  Total: $30

Good luck!