Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Feb. 15

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, Feb. 15 at Tampa Bay Downs and Turfway Park, including horses to play in Turfway’s $3,587 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Winning Wednesdays: Get a 25% boost on your winning win wagers (excluding stake amount; maximum $50 bonus per day) when you bet Tampa Bay Downs and Gulfstream Park on Wednesdays.

Picks and Plays

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 1: $12,500 Claiming (one mile and 40 yards, 12:28 p.m. ET)

#4 Risk Vs Reward (8-5) has been in strong form since being claimed by hot trainer Juan Arriagada, who has gone 14-for-46 (30%) at Tampa Bay Downs since Dec. 1. Using pace-tracking tactics, Risk Vs Reward dominated an $8,000 claimer for non-winners of two races by 4 3/4 lengths, then finished second in a $12,500 claimer for non-winners of three races.

Both of those efforts came at Tampa, and Risk Vs Reward posted improving Brisnet Speed ratings of 83 and 88. Under hot jockey Samy Camacho (5-for-15, 33% teaming up with Arriagada over the last two months), Risk Vs Reward is a logical choice to take home top honors while sticking to the same class level as his most recent run.

#3 Winter’s Ghost (3-2), third behind Risk Vs Reward in the above-mentioned $12,500 claimer, can complete the exacta in his first start since being claimed by trainer Anthony Granitz, who wins at a lofty 36% rate with new claiming acquisitions.

Selections

• #4 Risk Vs Reward (8-5)
• #3 Winter’s Ghost (3-2)
• #6 Aries Reigns (9-2)

Wagers

• $25 Exacta: 4 with 3

Turfway Park: Race 2: $7,500 Maiden Claiming (one mile on Tapeta, 6:25 p.m. ET)

There isn’t much pace on paper in this field of three-year-old maidens, which bodes well for the chances of #1 Frady (5-1). The gelded son of Astern has set or tracked the pace in all five of his starts, most recently when finishing fourth (beaten only six lengths) in a $15,000 maiden claimer sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Turfway.

Frady has placed twice against maiden special weight company at Horseshoe Indianapolis, including in a one-mile and 70-yard contest, so stretching out over one mile on Wednesday shouldn’t be an issue. If he shakes loose on an uncontested lead while descending to the $7,500 maiden claiming level, Frady may prove uncatchable.

We’ll bet Frady to win and use #2 Net Worth (3-1) and #12 Wiseacre (9-2) for second place in an exacta.

Selections

• #1 Frady (5-1)
• #2 Net Worth (3-1)
• #12 Wiseacre (9-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 Frady (5-1)
• $5 Exacta: 1 with 2,12 ($10)
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (6 1/2 furlongs, 7:55 p.m. ET)

#11 Sunday Shoes (7-2) looks ready to roll on debut for hot trainer Wesley Ward, whose 15-for-43 (35%) record at Turfway Park since Nov. 30 includes a 2-for-6 (33%) record saddling first-time starters.

Sunday Shoes has been training with promise at Turfway (most notably clocking a bullet five furlongs in 1:00 1/5) and is slated to be guided by accomplished apprentice jockey Walter Rodriguez, who rides with a five-pound weight allowance.

#7 Upper Case (3-1), seventh in his debut against maiden special weight competition at Saratoga, can complete the exacta in his return from a long layoff for hot trainer Paulo Lobo.

Selections

• #11 Sunday Shoes (7-2)
• #7 Upper Case (3-1)
• #10 Who Runs the World (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #11 Sunday Shoes
• $10 Exacta: 11 with 7
• Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Turfway Park, Race 8: $3,587 Super High 5 carryover (9:25 p.m. ET)

A typically difficult handicapping challenge awaits bettors hoping to win a share of Wednesday’s $3,587 Super High 5 carryover at Turfway Park.

As usual, the $1 wager is available to play in the final race of the evening—in this case, Race 8, a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight for three-year-old fillies. Although the maximum field size is 12 horses, 14 have been entered (with two on the also-eligible list), equating to 240,240 possible Super High 5 outcomes before scratches. Throw in the fact half of the entrants have never raced, and compiling a winning ticket is bound to be difficult.

That said, if you want to take a shot at winning a share of the carryover, we recommend keying #8 Lady Lowery (7-5) on top of all your tickets. The morning line favorite debuted over this track, distance, and class level on Jan. 18 and ran strongly in defeat, rallying from last place to finish second by 2 3/4 lengths. Lady Lowery gained 4 1/4 lengths through the final furlong alone and earned an 88 Brisnet Speed rating, far exceeding the 80 Brisnet Speed rating that ranks as the par winning number for Wednesday’s conditions.

Trainer William Walden wins at a 20% rate in maiden special weights, and Lady Lowery has posted a couple of sharp half-mile workouts at Turfway since her debut, suggesting she’ll be tough to beat in her second run under colors.

Underneath Lady Lowery, you might want to add #4 Fast N Happy (10-1) as a live longshot. The daughter of champion sprinter Runhappy is conditioned by Thomas Drury Jr., a 20% winner saddling first-time starters in maiden special weights.

Fast N Happy has shown speed training over the Turfway Tapeta track, most recently clocking a swift half-mile in :47 4/5. Runhappy won his debut at Turfway (albeit over the old Polytrack surface), and Fast N Happy’s half-sister One Fast Orb broke her maiden over the Turfway Tapeta last year, so Fast N Happy has a shot to outrun expectations in her career bow.

Good luck!