Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Feb. 16

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Thursday, Feb. 16 at Fair Grounds and Turfway Park, along with tickets for Gulfstream Park’s $2,284 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Turfway Park $2,500 Thursday Leaderboard Contest: Place $10+ win wagers at Turfway Park on Thursdays from Jan. 5 through March 30 to earn points and compete for your share of a $2,500 weekly jackpot.
• Fair Grounds $10,000 Mardi Gras Leaderboard: Place $10+ win wagers at Fair Grounds from Feb. 16 through Feb. 21 to earn points and compete for your share of a $10,000 prize pool.

Picks and Plays

Fair Grounds: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles, 3:15 p.m. ET)

#6 Blame Day (7-5) has finished second in each of her first three starts, including a pair of six-furlong maiden special weights at Fair Grounds. As a daughter of Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) winner Blame out of the Shamardal mare Fancy Day, Blame Day is bred top and bottom to thrive running long—her half-siblings include 1 1/8-mile Twilight Derby (G2) winner Cabo Spirit and 1 1/8-mile Butch Gleason Classic S. winner Convention.

Stretching out over 1 1/16 miles can send Blame Day to the winner’s circle for hot trainer Bret Calhoun, a 28% winner at Fair Grounds this meet. We’ll single Blame Day to start a double wager, then key her over #5 Mischievous Gal (5-1) in an exacta.

Selections

• #6 Blame Day (7-5)
• #5 Mischievous Gal (5-1)
• #1 Lady With a Cause (2-1)

Wagers

• $20 Double: 6 with 7
• $10 Exacta: 6 with 5
  Total: $30

Fair Grounds: Race 4: $5,000 Claiming (six furlongs, 3:45 p.m. ET)

#7 Planters Punch (5-2) wired a $12,500 maiden claimer sprinting six furlongs at Fair Grounds and was claimed out of that event by high-percentage trainer Keith Bourgeois, a 20% winner at Fair Grounds this meet. Planters Punch subsequently ran second in a $15,000 claimer over the same track and distance.

Dropping down to the $5,000 claiming level should make Planters Punch tough to beat. Bourgeois wins at a lofty 27% rate with horses running back for the second time following a claim, and apprentice jockey Treylon Albert rides with a favorable five-pound weight allowance, so there are many positive factors in Planters Punch’s favor.

We’ll single Planters Punch to conclude our double wager. For good measure, we’ll play him over #8 Stealing Apriority (3-1) and #9 Mesabi (9-2) in an exacta.

Selections

• #7 Planters Punch (5-2)
• #8 Stealing Apriority (3-1)
• #9 Mesabi (9-2)

Wagers

• $10 Exacta: 7 with 8,9 ($20)

Turfway Park: Race 6: $50,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (one mile on Tapeta, 8:25 p.m. ET)

#4 Flashy Gem (2-1) showed promise in a one-mile maiden special weight over the Ellis Park turf course last August, leading all the way to beat a next-out winner by 5 1/2 lengths. She hasn’t run since, but high-percentage trainer Brad Cox wins at a 23% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more, so Flashy Gem should be ready to roll off the break.

Throw in the fact Flashy Gem is racing on Lasix for the first time (a 38% winning move for Cox), and the bay filly is a logical choice to defeat #5 Mighty Madison (9-5), who is stretching out in distance off a maiden victory dashing 6 1/2 furlongs at Turfway.

#7 Tiki Bar (5-1) is the other runner we’ll use underneath Flashy Gem in an exacta.

Selections

• #4 Flashy Gem (2-1)
• #5 Mighty Madison (9-5)
• #7 Tiki Bar (5-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 4 with 5,7 ($30)

Carryover Watch

Gulfstream Park, Race 1: $2,284 Super High 5 carryover (12:10 p.m. ET)

Fans of Super High 5 carryovers will be happy to hear Gulfstream Park has a $2,284 prize pool available to chase in the first race on Thursday, a maiden special weight for three-year-old fillies traveling 7 1/2 furlongs on turf.

The opener has drawn nine entries, so there are 15,120 possible Super High 5 outcomes. Covering them all at the $1 minimum bet amount would cost $15,120, a poor investment strategy. The good news is, narrowing down the contenders (and by extension the cost of betting) doesn’t appear overly difficult.

We’ll start by acknowledging #3 Penumbras Maker (7-2) as a filly worth building tickets around. Not necessarily by keying her on top, but by counting on her to finish in the top three. Penumbras Maker has cracked the trifecta in five of her seven starts and has run particularly well in two turf tries, finishing second and third in maiden special weights at Gulfstream Park.

Penumbras Maker looks like a possible standout among the experienced runners, though we wouldn’t dismiss #4 La Mazel (6-1), who ran fourth in a couple of starts against tough competition at Saratoga last summer. But the biggest threats to Penumbras Maker might come from the first-time starters #2 Love Appeals (5-2) and #5 Delahaye (3-1).

Love Appeals has posted a couple of bullet workouts at Payson Park in recent weeks and figures to fire a competitive shot for trainer Christophe Clement, who wins at a 22% rate with first-time starters. But whereas Love Appeals has been training on dirt, Delahaye boasts a pair of bullet workouts over the Payson Park turf course. Trainer Chad Brown wins at a 20% rate with first-time starters, and Delahaye sold for $550,000 as a yearling, so expectations will surely be high on Thursday.

Let’s play a trio of Super High 5 tickets counting on Penumbras Maker to finish either first, second, or third with La Mazel, Love Appeals, and Delahaye all finishing in the top four. We’ll add #6 Tapitara (15-1), #7 Ready She Is (8-1), and #8 Holy Foley (10-1) for fifth place.

• $1 Super High 5: 3 with 2,4,5 with 2,4,5 with 2,4,5 with 6,7,8 ($18)
• $1 Super High 5: 2,4,5 with 3 with 2,4,5 with 2,4,5 with 6,7,8 ($18)
• $1 Super High 5: 2,4,5 with 2,4,5 with 3 with 2,4,5 with 6,7,8 ($18)
  Total: $54

Good luck!