Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Feb. 17

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, Feb. 17 at Fair Grounds and Turfway Park, along with horses to play in the $285,092 Pick 5 carryover and $40,771 Pick 6 carryover at Aqueduct.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Winter Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in select races Friday through Sunday.
• Fair Grounds $10,000 Mardi Gras Leaderboard: Place $10+ win wagers at Fair Grounds from Feb. 16 through Feb. 21 to earn points and compete for your share of a $10,000 prize pool.

Picks and Plays

Fair Grounds: Race 2: $15,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs, 2:45 p.m. ET)

#1 Creative Strategy (5-2) ran well in a $30,000 maiden claimer racing one mile and 70 yards at Fair Grounds last month. After tracking the pace and leading into the homestretch, Creative Strategy weakened in the final furlong to finish fourth.

Two starts back, Creative Strategy carved out a quick pace in a $50,000 maiden claimer sprinting six furlongs at Churchill Downs before fading to finish eighth. Dropping down to the $15,000 level can help the chestnut gelding visit the winner’s circle in his second start since being claimed by Matt Shirer, who wins at a 32% rate with horses running back for the second time following a claim.

#2 Notion (3-1) and #5 Brilliant Colors (4-1) can battle for exacta honors.

Selections

• #1 Creative Strategy (5-2)
• #2 Notion (3-1)
• #5 Brilliant Colors (4-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 1 with 2,5 ($30)

Turfway Park: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta, 5:55 p.m. ET)

#7 Metatron’s Muse (9-5) ran strongly in his debut over this track, distance, and class level on Jan. 20. The William Morey trainee dueled for the early lead before staying on to finish second behind next-out winner Transect, who is undefeated in two starts.

Morey wins at a 27% rate with second-time starters, and the 70 Brisnet Speed rating Metatron’s Muse posted on debut tops Friday’s field, so all signs suggest a winning effort is in the offing.

#2 Libertango (2-1) and the unraced Triple Crown nominee #5 Runandscore (12-1) are the two we’ll add for an exacta.

Selections

• #7 Metatron’s Muse (9-5)
• #2 Libertango (2-1)
• #5 Runandscore (12-1)

Wagers

• $22 Exacta: 7 with 2
• $8 Exacta: 7 with 5
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 5: $25,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (1 1/4 miles on Tapeta, 7:55 p.m. ET)

#9 Policy Option (5-2) is unlucky not to have won at Turfway Park already. He’s made three starts over this track and class level since Dec. 14, finishing second every time while earning sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 92, 90, and 94.

Three starts back, Policy Option ran second in a 1 1/4-mile contest, beaten less than one length after rallying to a daylight lead in midstretch. Last time out, he gained 3 3/4 lengths through the final furlong of a 1 1/8-mile event to miss victory by a nose. With any luck, Policy Option’s talent and consistency will land him in the winner’s circle on Friday.

#4 Kazan (10-1) is a live longshot worth playing in the exacta. Two starts back, he was beaten only a nose over this track, distance, and class level. #7 Hard Rye Guy (10-1) and #11 Maintainer (6-1) are the other two we’ll use.

Selections

• #9 Policy Option (5-2)
• #4 Kazan (10-1)
• #7 Hard Rye Guy (10-1)

Wagers

• $10 Exacta: 9 with 4,7,11 ($30)

Carryover Watch

Aqueduct, Race 1: $285,092 Pick 5 carryover (12:50 p.m. ET)
Aqueduct, Race 3: $40,771 Pick 6 carryover (2:20 p.m. ET)

The Friday card at Aqueduct is shaping up as a terrific betting opportunity. There are two non-jackpot carryovers up for grabs: a $40,771 carryover in the $1 Pick 6 and a massive $285,092 prize pool in the 50-cent Early Pick 5.

The two sequences overlap in Races 3, 4, and 5, so if you plan to play both carryovers, you’ll need to get those races right. Let’s check out each one and see which runners we might want to include:

Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (one mile)

This contest for older New York-breds appears straightforward to handicap. Among the experienced runners, #7 Refuah (5-2) looms as a standout. The four-year-old gelding has cracked the trifecta in eight of his 10 starts, including all five of his runs against New York-bred company. On Jan. 19, he ran second over this precise track, distance, and class level, earning a career-best 85 Brisnet Speed rating.

But since Refuah’s 10-0-5-3 lifetime resume suggests he has a tendency to settle for minor awards, we’ll also use the first-time starter #3 Spirit of St Louis (2-1). Trainer Chad Brown has compiled a stellar 6-3-1-2 (50%) record debuting three-year-olds over the Aqueduct main track this year, and Spirit of St Louis is slated to be ridden by hot jockey Manny Franco, a 29% winner teaming up with Brown over the last two months.

Spirit of St Louis has put together a lengthy work tab in preparation for his debut, and it’s worth noting he’s a full brother to Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) winner Bar of Gold. With his high-profile connections, solid work tab, and classy pedigree, Spirit of St Louis looks ready to win on debut.

Race 4: $35,000 Claiming (one mile)

#1 Complete Agenda (8-5) is an obvious favorite. Two starts back, the four-year-old colt rallied boldly to win a $50,000 starter allowance over this track and class level. But he subsequently regressed to finish sixth in a one-mile allowance at Aqueduct, so singling Complete Agenda in this largely paceless field might not be the best strategy.

#6 Fromanothamutha (6-1) was no match for Complete Agenda in the above-mentioned $50,000 starter allowance, finishing eighth. However, he employed pace-pressing tactics to wire a $40,000 claimer racing one mile at Aqueduct two starts back. If Fromanothamutha shakes loose on an easy lead this Friday, he may bounce back with a surprisingly competitive showing.

Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs)

This maiden sprint for three-year-old fillies is shaping up as a battle between #7 Fabulously Funny (2-1) and #8 Spelterini (5-2), separated by half a length when running second and third over this track, distance, and class level on Jan. 7. We might give Fabulously Funny a slight edge since she’s only run once and may have more upside for improvement, but using both in equal strength should be sufficient to survive in the Pick 5 and Pick 6.

Fair Grounds, Race 3: $2,343 Pick 6 carryover (3:15 p.m. ET)

In addition to the carryover action at Aqueduct, Fair Grounds has a $2,343 non-jackpot prize pool up for grabs in the $1 Pick 6.

The sequence gets underway in Race 3, a $10,000 claimer for Louisiana-breds sprinting six furlongs on dirt. Eight horses have been entered, and #1 Letstakeitoutside (4-1) may be a viable single. He misfired in a non-state-restricted allowance at Delta Downs earlier this month, finishing fifth in his first start off a one-year layoff. But during the 2021-22 meet at Fair Grounds, Letstakeitoutside dominated a $25,000 maiden claimer and ran third in an allowance, both against Louisiana-bred rivals.

Returning to the Louisiana-bred ranks and dropping into a $10,000 claimer might be all Letstakeitoutside needs to bounce back with a winning run for trainer Jonas Gibson, a 22% winner in claiming races.

Good luck!