Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Feb. 20

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Monday, Feb. 20 at Aqueduct and Santa Anita, along with a horse to single in the $54,483 Pick 6 carryover at Fair Grounds.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Monday Harness Exacta Win Bonus: Receive a 50% bonus (up to $50 per day) on winning exacta bets at selected harness tracks. Offer applies to your first straight exacta bet in a race featuring seven or more starters.
• Fair Grounds $10,000 Mardi Gras Leaderboard: Place $10+ win wagers at Fair Grounds from Feb. 16 through Feb. 21 to earn points and compete for your share of a $10,000 prize pool.

Picks and Plays

Aqueduct: Race 6: Haynesfield S. (one mile, 3:55 p.m. ET)

This one-mile contest for New York-breds looks ripe for conquest by #4 Dr Ardito (6-5), who has won five straight races for hot trainer Chad Brown. The five-year-old gelding is 3-for-3 racing one mile and recently returned from a lengthy layoff to win a non-state-restricted $62,500 allowance optional claimer sprinting seven furlongs at Aqueduct.

Stretching back out over one mile for his second start off the layoff stamps Dr Ardito as the horse to beat under hot jockey Manny Franco, who has gone 5-for-15 (33%) teaming up with Brown over the last two months.

We’ll bet Dr Ardito on top of a trifecta using #2 Wudda U Think Now (9-5) and #5 Bankit (3-1) for the minor awards.

Selections

• #4 Dr Ardito (6-5)
• #2 Wudda U Think Now (9-5)
• #5 Bankit (3-1)

Wagers

• $15 Trifecta: 4 with 2,5 ($30)

Santa Anita: Race 4: Tiznow S. (one mile, 4:59 p.m. ET)

#5 The Chosen Vron (2-5) has won four straight stakes against California-bred rivals. The versatile five-year-old gelding has been sprinting as of late, but he’s also a capable route racer; he even won the 2021 Affirmed (G3) over 1 1/16 miles.

If The Chosen Vron brings his A-game to the Tiznow, he can cruise to victory at a short price. We’ll bet him over #1 Coalinga Road (5-2) in a cold exacta.

Selections

• #5 The Chosen Vron (2-5)
• #1 Coalinga Road (5-2)
• #4 Leyas Candy (7-2)

Wagers

• $30 Exacta: 5 with 1

Santa Anita: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (6 1/2 furlongs on turf, 5:29 p.m. ET)

#7 Dancing Rinca (6-1) has hit the board in all six of his grass starts. Five of those contests were one-mile maiden special weights, and Dancing Rinca missed victory by just a neck in two of them.

This consistent resume has produced sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 82, 87, 80, 86, 91, and 82. Dancing Rinca breezed a bullet five furlongs in :59 1/5 over the Santa Anita training track last week and may appreciate cutting back to a sprint distance under hot jockey Juan Hernandez, a 27% winner at Santa Anita this meet.

In hopes that the shorter distance sharpens Dancing Rinca’s finishing kick, we’ll bet him to win and key him over #3 Admiralty Place (4-1) and #2 Admiral Halsey (3-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #7 Dancing Rinca (6-1)
• #3 Admiralty Place (4-1)
• #2 Admiral Halsey (3-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 7 with 2,3 ($30)

Carryover Watch

Fair Grounds, Race 4: $54,483 Pick 6 carryover (3:45 p.m. ET)

Monday is Presidents Day, which means Fair Grounds in Louisiana is hosting a special holiday card with nine races and a $54,483 Pick 6 carryover on the agenda.

The carryover in the $1 Pick 6 stems from a Saturday afternoon of upsets at the Louisiana oval, which saw Pretty Mischievous (8-1) and Angel of Empire (13-1) spring surprises in Kentucky Oaks (G1) and Kentucky Derby (G1) qualifiers.

Monday’s six-race sequence gets underway in Race 4 and contains 54 horses (averaging nine per race) before scratches, which equates to 498,960 possible outcomes. That sounds like a pretty tough handicapping challenge.

The good news is, we can slice the number of possibilities down to 71,280 if we’re willing to single obvious favorite #2 Nosilverspoonshere (2-5) in Race 5, a $20,000 allowance optional claimer for Louisiana-bred fillies and mares.

The distance is one mile on dirt, and that should suit Nosilverspoonshere just fine. The daughter of Connect absolutely obliterated an allowance for Louisiana-breds over this track and distance on Jan. 19, leading all the way to win by 17 lengths with a flashy 93 Brisnet Speed rating.

You might assume that blowout victory was a fluke, but there are many reasons Nosilverspoonshere can repeat the performance on Monday. For starters, that allowance contest marked Nosilverspoonshere’s first start for high-percentage trainer Tom Amoss, a 29% winner at Fair Grounds this meet. For another, the effort marked Nosilverspoonshere’s first start off a 3 1/2-month layoff, and Amoss wins at an excellent 22% rate with horses running back for the second time following a layoff.

For good measure, Nosilverspoonshere’s performance wasn’t unprecedented from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective. She won her debut in a $100,000 maiden claimer at Keeneland by 8 3/4 lengths, earning a 96 Brisnet Speed rating, and a subsequent close defeat in a Churchill Downs allowance produced an 86 Brisnet Speed rating.

None of Nosilverspoonshere’s Monday rivals have ever posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 87, or a number higher than 83 within the last year. Anything resembling a peak performance from Nosilverspoonshere can carry the four-year-old filly to a short-priced victory under hot jockey Corey Lanerie, a 21% winner at Fair Grounds this meet.

Good luck!