Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Feb. 21

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Tuesday, Feb. 21 at Fair Grounds and Turf Paradise, along with horses to play in Pick 5 and Super High 5 carryovers at Sunland Park.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Trifecta Tuesday: Receive a 15% bonus on trifecta winnings excluding stake amount; up to $25 per day.

Picks and Plays

Fair Grounds: Race 3: $30,000 Claiming (1 1/16 miles, 3:15 p.m. ET)

#5 Summer Splash (9-5) is the morning line favorite after wiring a $35,000 claimer over this track and distance last month. But the six-year-old gelding escaped with an uncontested lead that day and isn’t guaranteed to receive a similar setup while facing fellow speed horses #2 Co Conspirator (9-2) and #6 Gimme Some Mo (15-1) on Tuesday.

In contrast, #3 Blue Jays (2-1) rallied from far back to finish second behind Summer Splash in that $35,000 claimer. Blue Jays was only beaten one length while gaining two lengths through the final furlong, so he can turn the tables with a better pace setup on Tuesday. It’s worth noting Blue Jays is making his second start since being claimed by Chris Hartman, and that second-off-the-claim angle is a 36% winning move for Hartman.

We’ll bet Blue Jays over Summer Splash in a cold exacta. Then we’ll add #4 My Bariley (4-1) for a small trifecta aiming to capitalize on the Trifecta Tuesday promotion.

Selections

• #3 Blue Jays (2-1)
• #5 Summer Splash (9-5)
• #4 My Bariley (4-1)

Wagers

• $25 Exacta: 3 with 5
• $5 Trifecta: 3 with 5 with 4
  Total: $30

Turf Paradise: Race 2: $5,000-$4,000 Starter Optional Claiming (7 1/2 furlongs on turf, 3:25 p.m. ET)

#3 Lila’s Lucky Lady (8-5) hasn’t missed the trifecta in five starts since being claimed by high-percentage trainer Justin Evans. Most recently, the seven-year-old mare employed pace-tracking tactics to win an $8,000-$6,250 claimer racing one mile over the Turf Paradise lawn by 1 3/4 lengths.

Lila’s Lucky Lady has posted five straight Brisnet Speed ratings in the 70-77 range, and Evans wins at a 40% rate with horses dropping in class off a victory, so Lila’s Lucky Lady looms as a standout against Tuesday’s field. We’ll bet her in an exacta using #6 Summerofthesamurai (4-1) and #5 Flying to the Line (5-2) for second place.

Selections

• #3 Lila’s Lucky Lady (8-5)
• #6 Summerofthesamurai (4-1)
• #5 Flying to the Line (5-2)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 3 with 5,6 ($30)

Fair Grounds: Race 8: Mardi Gras S. (about 5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 5:45 p.m. ET)

Two-time stakes winner #3 Astute (3-1) has posted three gate-to-wire victories from five starts, so her third-place finish in last month’s Nelson J. Menard Memorial S. over this course and distance was impressive. Making her first start since May 2021, Astute ran into early traffic trouble and fell back to seventh place, but never gave up and rallied nicely down the homestretch to finish third.

With a clean break in her second run off the layoff, Astute can turn the tables on Nelson J. Menard Memorial winner #4 Oeuvre (5-2) and spring a mild surprise for red-hot trainer Brad Cox.

A cold exacta is the way we’ll play.

Selections

• #3 Astute (3-1)
• #4 Oeuvre (5-2)
• #9 Charlie T (4-1) (also-eligible)
• #8 Goin’ Good (4-1)

Wagers

• $25 Exacta: 3 with 4

Carryover Watch

Sunland Park, Race 5: $614 Pick 5 carryover (4:09 p.m. ET)

No one hit the Pick 5 at Sunland Park last Sunday. Or last Saturday. Or even last Friday, for that matter. This means the 50-cent wager boasts a $614 carryover for Tuesday’s card.

Looking for a single to build tickets around? You’re advised to check out Race 6, a $7,500 claimer taking place over one mile and 70 yards on dirt. The morning line favorite is #2 Dubronsky (9-5), and the six-year-old gelding looms as a standout.

Under the care of hot trainer Dick Cappellucci (a 27% winner at Sunland this meet), Dubronsky kicked off his 2023 campaign on a promising note. In a $7,500 starter optional claimer sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Sunland on Jan. 24, Dubronsky charged strongly from off the pace to finish second, beaten only 1 3/4 lengths while posting a sharp 76 Brisnet Speed rating.

This effort was noteworthy since Dubronsky is arguably better as a route racer than a sprinter. He wrapped up 2022 with consecutive victories racing one mile at Zia Park, most notably crushing a $5,000 claimer by 11 lengths with an 82 Brisnet Speed rating. None of his Tuesday rivals have posted a number that high in their last 10 starts.

Stretching back out in distance figures to trigger a winning run from Dubronsky. Throw in the fact he’ll be ridden by hot jockey Alfredo Juarez Jr. (a 29% winner teaming up with Cappellucci over the last two months), and Dubronsky looms as a logical Pick 5 single.

Sunland Park, Race 9: $165 Super High 5 carryover (6:00 p.m. ET)

In addition to the Pick 5 carryover at Sunland, there’s a $165 prize pool up for grabs in the 50-cent Super High 5.

The wager is available to play in Race 9, a $5,000 claimer for fillies and mares dashing six furlongs on dirt. A competitive field is facing the starter, but #4 Artful Rose (7-2) looks like a filly to key on top.

Artful Rose has tactical speed and enters off a game runner-up finish over this track and class level on Jan. 24, when she lost by 1 3/4 lengths after leading at the furlong marker. She previously won a $6,500 maiden claimer for New Mexico-breds sprinting six furlongs at Sunland, so Artful Rose brings hot form to Tuesday’s contest.

Trainer Greg Green is winning at a 28% rate this meet, and hot jockey Miguel Perez (a 20% winner at Sunland) is named to ride, so Artful Rose is a deserving favorite and a logical filly to build tickets around.

Good luck!