Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Feb. 24

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, Feb. 24 at Tampa Bay Downs and Turfway Park, along with horses to play in non-jackpot carryovers at Tampa and Fair Grounds.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Winter Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in select races Friday through Sunday.

Picks and Plays

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 6: $8,000 Claiming (1 1/16 miles, 3:16 p.m. ET)

#4 Shimmering Light (8-5) has finished second in three straight races running long over this track and class level, earning sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 76, 73, and 78. The speedy six-year-old looms as the only obvious pacesetter in Friday’s field and should have every chance to secure an uncontested lead. Perhaps picking up Tampa’s top jockey Samy Camacho is the final piece of the puzzle to trigger a winning run.

Let’s single Shimmering Light to start a double wager, then key him over #6 Grand Player (7-2) in a cold exacta.

Selections

• #4 Shimmering Light (8-5)
• #6 Grand Player (7-2)
• #8 Papa Jimmy (8-1)

Wagers

• $15 Double: 4 with 2
• $10 Exacta: 4 with 6
  Total: $25

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on turf, 3:48 p.m. ET)

#2 City Humor (3-1) faltered in his lone turf try to date, finishing seventh. But that was a one-mile contest in which City Humor opened up a seven-length lead at the halfway point.

City Humor has been more effective sprinting on dirt, finishing second and third in a couple of maiden special weights at Tampa Bay Downs this winter. Cutting back to five furlongs (his shortest race to date) can help this pacesetting chestnut visit the winner’s circle under hot jockey Carlos Rojas.

We’ll bet City Humor to win, single him to conclude our double wager, and key him over #7 Wow Wish (6-1) and #8 Depoli (7-2) in the exacta.

Selections

• #2 City Humor (3-1)
• #7 Wow Wish (6-1)
• #8 Depoli (7-2)

Wagers

• $15 to win #2 City Humor
• $5 Exacta: 2 with 7,8 ($10)
  Total: $25

Turfway Park: Race 7: $25,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 8:55 p.m. ET)

#10 Boise (8-1) completely misfired in a $40,000 allowance optional claimer at Turfway Park on Jan. 28, finishing last. But he’d previously run third in a couple of starts over the same track and class level, earning competitive Brisnet Speed ratings of 89 and 85.

If you draw a line through Boise’s recent misfire, his form looks solid. Dropping down to the $25,000 allowance optional claiming level should help his chances, and it’s worth noting jockey Joseph Ramos has gone 3-for-6 (50%) teaming up with trainer Mike Maker over the last two months.

Taking advantage of the Winter Money Back promotion, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Boise. Then we’ll play him over logical favorites #12 Samurai Prince (7-2) and #4 Page One (5-2) in the exacta.

Selections

• #10 Boise (8-1)
• #12 Samurai Prince (7-2)
• #4 Page One (5-2)

Wagers

• $10 to win on #10 Boise
• $4 Exacta: 10 with 4,12 ($8)
• $6 Exacta: 4,12 with 10 ($12)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Tampa Bay Downs, Race 1: $10,209 Super High 5 carryover (12:46 p.m. ET)

The opening race on Friday at Tampa Bay Downs features a $10,209 carryover in the $1 Super High 5.

Mathematically speaking, it shouldn’t be difficult to construct a winning ticket. Race 1 is a $25,000 maiden claimer for three-year-olds sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, and with seven horses in the entries, there are only 2,520 possible Super High 5 outcomes.

#7 Rusty Pistol (5-2) and #2 Cruising Derek (3-1) are logical favorites after placing in separate races over this track and class level last month, but both were beaten by wide margins and bring relatively light Brisnet Speed ratings to the table. Rusty Pistol’s career-best number is a 69, while Cruising Derek boasts a 71. Both numbers rank well below the 77 that stands as the par winning number for Friday’s conditions.

This suggests a first-time starter like #5 Awesome Prince (7-2) won’t have to run very fast to steal the show. A son of Awesome Slew (who sires a respectable 13% debut winners), Awesome Prince is trained by Gerald Bennett, who has compiled a sharp 6-2-0-2 (33%) record saddling first-time starters over the Tampa main track since 2022. Awesome Prince has Tampa’s top jockey Samy Camacho named to ride, so all signs suggest this bay gelding is worth betting on top in the Super High 5.

Fair Grounds, Race 3: $4,085 Pick 6 carryover (3:15 p.m. ET)

Fans of non-jackpot Pick 6 carryovers will be happy to hear Friday’s $1 Pick 6 at Fair Grounds features a $4,085 prize pool.

Looking for a single to build tickets around? Try #7 Peso Pesado (5-2) in Race 5, a one-mile maiden special weight for Louisiana-bred three-year-olds. Whereas none of his seven rivals have posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 71, Peso Pesado earned ratings of 74 and 75 when finishing fifth and third in his first two tries over this track and class level.

Peso Pesado has yet to run farther than six furlongs, but sire Star Guitar was a tried-and-true route racer who won three editions of the Louisiana Champions Day Classic over 1 1/8 miles, so stretching out around two turns should be within reach for Peso Pesado. Trainer Bret Calhoun has been hot at Fair Grounds this meet, winning 27% of the time, and Peso Pesado looks ready to keep that hot streak going.

Good luck!