Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Feb. 27

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares $90 worth of picks and plays for Monday, Feb. 27 at Mahoning Valley and Turf Paradise, including a couple of trifectas.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Monday Harness Exacta Win Bonus: Receive a 50% bonus (up to $50 per day) on winning exacta bets at selected harness tracks. Offer applies to your first straight exacta bet in a race featuring seven or more starters.

Picks and Plays

Mahoning Valley: Race 8: Allowance (one mile, 4:04 p.m. ET)

#7 Little Rons Rocket (8-5) is the morning line favorite after finishing third over this track, distance, and class level on Jan. 12. But on that occasion, Little Rons Rocket finished 3 1/2 lengths behind runner-up #4 Red Head Kid (4-1), who offers a higher price on Monday’s morning line.

Red Head Kid followed up his fine Jan. 12 effort with a fourth-place finish in a six-furlong allowance sprint two weeks later. Stretching back out over one mile should only help Red Head Kid, who broke his maiden in gate-to-wire fashion over this trip three starts back.

We’ll bet Red Head Kid to win and key him over Little Rons Rocket in a cold exacta.

Selections

• #4 Red Head Kid (4-1)
• #7 Little Rons Rocket (8-5)
• #3 Smoocher (2-1)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #4 Red Head Kid
• $15 Exacta: 4 with 7
  Total: $30

Turf Paradise: Race 4: $10,000-$8,500 Claiming (about 7 1/2 furlongs on turf, 4:25 p.m. ET)

Only three horses in this field have ever won on turf: #2 Willtobelucky (8-1), #7 Uncle Jeff (2-1), and #8 Our Valley (5-1). Willtobelucky and Uncle Jeff have placed in recent starts over this course and class level, while Our Valley is dropping in class out of tougher allowance optional claiming races.

Uncle Jeff is the favorite under Turf Paradise’s runaway leading jockey Harry Hernandez, but he finished behind Our Valley two starts back. Let’s try betting exacta and trifecta tickets using Uncle Jeff and Our Valley equally in the top two slots:

Selections

• #7 Uncle Jeff (2-1)
• #8 Our Valley (5-1)
• #2 Willtobelucky (8-1)

Wagers

• $10 Exacta box: 7,8 ($20)
• $5 Trifecta: 7,8 with 7,8 with 2 ($10)
  Total: $30

Turf Paradise: Race 6: $15,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (6 1/2 furlongs, 5:23 p.m. ET)

#7 Trumped (8-5) recently returned from a layoff to rally and win a $30,000 maiden optional claimer at Turf Paradise by 2 1/4 lengths. The five-year-old gelding has only run twice, but the Brisnet Speed ratings he’s posted (86 and 84) rank among the higher numbers in Monday’s field.

Trainer Vann Belvoir has been hot at Turf Paradise this meet, winning at a 24% rate, and Harry Hernandez is named to ride. Belvoir and Hernandez have gone 5-for-15 (33%) teaming up together over the last two months, so we’ll count on Trumped to deliver victory in his second local start.

#4 A View From Above (8-1), #1 Abraaj Mirage (5-1), and #8 Toil and Trouble (6-1) are the three we’ll add for exacta and trifecta tickets.

Selections

• #7 Trumped (8-5)
• #4 A View From Above (8-1)
• #1 Abraaj Mirage (5-1)

Wagers

• $6 Exacta: 7 with 1,4,8 ($18)
• $2 Trifecta: 7 with 1,4,8 with 1,4,8 ($12)
  Total: $30

Good luck!