Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Feb. 9

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Thursday, Feb. 9 at Fair Grounds and Turfway Park, including a horse to single in the $2,560 Pick 6 carryover at Fair Grounds.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Turfway Park $2,500 Thursday Leaderboard Contest: Place $10+ win wagers at Turfway Park on Thursdays from Jan. 5 through March 30 to earn points and play for your share of a $2,500 weekly jackpot.

Picks and Plays

Fair Grounds: Race 5: $15,000 Claiming (one mile and 70 yards, 4:15 p.m. ET)

#4 Total Malice (5-2) enters off back-to-back victories against $5,000 claiming competition over this track and distance, scoring by 2 3/4 lengths on Nov. 18 before wiring a Dec. 11 contest by 8 1/4 lengths. The latter victory produced a career-best 84 Brisnet Speed rating, stamping the five-year-old mare as a dangerous win threat in her first start since being claimed by high-percentage trainer Karl Broberg.

#6 Sense You Left (2-1) is the other key win threat. She employed pace-pressing tactics to trounce a $15,000 claimer at Fair Grounds last month by 4 1/4 lengths, earning an 83 Brisnet Speed rating. Whereas Total Malice is ascending the class ladder, Sense You Left has already proven her worth against this caliber of competition.

Let’s box Total Malice and Sense You Left in the exacta and call it a day.

Selections

• #4 Total Malice (5-2)
• #6 Sense You Left (2-1)
• #1 Why Behave (5-2)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: box 4, 6 ($30)

Turfway Park: Race 1: $5,000 Starter Allowance (6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta, 5:55 p.m. ET)

#7 Enjoy the Music (7-5) is 2-for-2 at Turfway Park. He rallied from midfield to win a $5,000 starter allowance sprinting six furlongs on Dec. 14, then came back on Jan. 14 to prevail again over the same track, distance, and class level.

Enjoy the Music was impressive on Jan. 14, overcoming a poor start to score by 1 1/4 lengths. The Equibase result charted noted he was “tons [the] best.” Assuming Enjoy the Music gets off to a sharper start on Thursday, he can keep his perfect Turfway record intact.

#1 Big Sport (8-5), victorious in six of his last nine starts, is a logical choice to finish in the top three. We’ll use him with #3 Bold Adventure (15-1) in exacta and trifecta tickets.

Selections

• #7 Enjoy the Music (7-5)
• #1 Big Sport (8-5)
• #3 Bold Adventure (15-1)

Wagers

• $12 Exacta: 7 with 1
• $8 Exacta: 7 with 3
• $6.50 Trifecta: 7 with 1 with 3
• $3.50 Trifecta: 7 with 3 with 1
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 4: $5,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 7:25 p.m. ET)

#5 Hillbilly Logic (4-5) looks like a standout while dropping significantly in class. Whereas none of his rivals in this $5,000 claimer have posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 75, Hillbilly Logic has earned figures in the 78-81 range in four of his starts.

Hillbilly Logic hasn’t run since May, when he ran third in a $40,000 maiden optional claimer at Woodbine. But hot trainer Wesley Ward (a 34% winner at Turfway since Nov. 30) wins at a 24% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more, so Hillbilly Logic figures to fire a competitive shot under hot apprentice jockey Walter Rodriguez, who rides with a favorable five-pound weight allowance.

#9 Ambassador Mike (6-1) and #3 Sherlocked (15-1) can battle for exacta honors.

Selections

• #5 Hillbilly Logic (4-5)
• #9 Ambassador Mike (6-1)
• #3 Sherlocked (15-1)

Wagers

• $12 Exacta: 5 with 9
• $8 Exacta: 5 with 3
  Total: $20

Carryover Watch

Fair Grounds, Race 3: $2,560 Pick 6 carryover (3:15 p.m. ET)

The Fair Grounds racing week gets underway with a $2,560 non-jackpot carryover up for grabs in the $1 Pick 6.

From a mathematical perspective, the sequence doesn’t appear impossible to decipher. Once also-eligible entrants are removed from consideration, the maximum number of horses able to start across the Pick 6 sequence is 45, averaging only 7.5 per race. Again excluding the also-eligibles, there are only 165,888 possible Pick 6 outcomes to analyze, a manageable number by Pick 6 standards.

Even better, we can slice that total down to 20,736 possibilities if we’re willing to single #1 Boltoro (5-2) in Race 7, a maiden special weight for fillies and mares racing about one mile on turf. Conditioned by hot trainer Mark Casse (who has gone 5-for-17, 29% at Fair Grounds this meet), Boltoro exits a fifth-place finish in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight over the Turfway Park Tapeta track.

That effort wasn’t especially inspiring, but dig a little further back into Boltoro’s past performances and her flashy credentials become obvious. Two starts back she rallied strongly to finish third in a slow-paced 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight over the Keeneland turf course, beaten only one length after gaining 3 1/2 lengths in the final furlong. And three starts back, Boltoro unleashed a giant finish in a one-mile maiden special weight on turf at Kentucky Downs to finish second by a nose.

Returning to turf might be all Boltoro needs to visit the winner’s circle. The fact she’s racing on Lasix for the first time (an excellent 19% winning move for Casse) adds to the appeal and cements Boltoro as a viable Pick 6 single.

Of course, 20,736 possible outcomes across the remaining five races is still a lot to handle, so let’s reduce the number even further (down to 6,912) by using only two horses in Race 5. We’ve already made our cases for #4 Total Malice (5-2) and #6 Sense You Left (2-1) as standouts in this $15,000 claimer, and using them in equal strength for Pick 6 purposes seems like a safe strategy.

Good luck!